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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 10 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Seahawks v. Rams

November 13, 2018 8:41 AM
November 13, 2018 8:41 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game just had that feel…the Rams could move the ball down the field anytime they wanted, but they did what they’ve been doing for weeks – letting inferior teams hang around because their defense is bordering on terrible most of the game.

The Rams have scored 29 or more in every game this season except for one (23 points at DEN Week 6). The Rams defense has allowed 27 or more in five of their last 7 games. They may give up a hundred to the Chiefs next week…but might score 110 for the win.

The Rams led 17-14 at the half. Led 36-24 in the 4th quarter, but then gave up a TD with 2:00 left…to cut it to 36-31 Rams. Seattle halted the Rams’ ensuing drive. Seattle then had a minute to get down the field for a game winning TD. The Seahawks got into Rams territory with the clock ticking away, but the Rams’ defense rose up and squashed Seattle’s last efforts – Rams win again.

The Rams are 9-1 and have all but locked up the NFC West. They have to keep pushing because they are behind for the #1 seed race to the Saints. Week 11 Rams v. KC in Mexico next week is going to be insane. Week 14 at Chicago will be great viewing as well. We project the Rams 14-2 as of now.

Poor Seattle, they’ve had the Rams nervous in both their games with them this season, but they just don’t have the horses that the Rams do. Seattle is 4-5 and fading…they have a must-win vs. Aaron Rodgers this week on TNF. We project Seattle to finish 8-8…not a great chance at 9-7 now. If they lose to Green Bay this week, their playoff hopes are all but dead (ditto for Green Bay).

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- This was the Rashaad Penny (12-108-1) breakout game. It might be the only one in 2018, but it’s here and we have to deal with it.

There are two things colliding which makes this Penny breakout pretty much of a shoulder shrug for me…

1: Penny is the most talented runner/all-around RB of the Seattle trio. BUT Mike Davis is very good too and Chris Carson is capable.

2: #1 doesn’t matter because Pete Carroll is all-in on Chris Carson (DNP) and instead of letting him rest/heal, and the fact that he has Penny-Davis, he’s already trying to force Carson back in Week 11 on TNF.

How is Penny going to continue to matter if Carson’s ‘Helicopter Mom’ (Pete Carroll) is going push Carson back so Penny can’t be seen outshining everyone and taking Carson’s job?

Whatever you thought of Mike Davis for weeks working with Carson…that’s about the same excitement you’d have for Penny when Carson’s back.

I’d say to trade Penny (redraft) to avoid it, but there’s this angle – Carroll pushes Carson back too soon and really gets him hurt and out for the season. Then you’d have a RB1.5 threat with Penny for the ROS.

I get trading Penny to stay out of the mud, and I get holding Penny on the bench to see if Carson either further damages his hip, hamstring, or foot or anything else he’s dealing with.

-- Cooper Kupp is done for the season with an ACL tear. Josh Reynolds (0-0-0/0) becomes a debated waiver wire name. When we last saw Reynolds, when Kupp was out with an MCL sprain a few weeks ago, he scored 2 TDs against Green Bay…after a few weeks of nothing much in place of Kupp.

The 2 TDs last time will be beaten to death by analysts and Reynolds will be in demand. I would have said in hot demand but I’m not seeing as much waiver wire enthusiasm as I thought there’d be, as of Monday evening.

How do you value Reynolds? Well, I’d say he’s better, talent-wise, that Marquez Valdez-Scantling or Tre’Quan Smith type WRs. You could counter that MVS and TQS are #2 type WRs on great passing teams. I get that, but Josh Reynolds would be the #3 on the best passing team – a team with two great WRs (Cooks-Woods), allowing Reynolds to get the least coverage of the group. If Kupp can thrive within the trio…then Reynolds may shock you because he can stretch the field. Woods might move into more of Kupp’s role and Reynolds more medium-deep work. I can see 20-40+ yard TD shots at least once a game to Reynolds who is tall/has long arms/has great catching radius and leaping ability.

Reynolds has a shot to be a WR2.0-2.5 because of his situation, and more of a WR2.0 in non-PPR if he gets the TD looks I’m thinking he’ll get. He’s a nice chance to turnover your boring Cobb-Gabriel-Goodwin-Moore(s) type WRs.

-- David Moore (1-16-0/3) is one of the boring Moore’s I was referring to above (D.J. the other). I like him. I like what Wilson was doing with him the past few weeks (until this week), but this Seattle passing game is too thin/lean for great fantasy. I think Wilson had 5 passes at halftime of this game (no joke). Pete Carroll’s perfect game is 100% runs and zero passes. Why dive into that for fantasy if you don’t have to? Give me the #3 WR on the best passing game (Reynolds) over the #2-3 WR on a low volume passing team.

Tyler Lockett (5-67-1/50 is all that makes sense…he scores a TD every week it seems, even on 2-3 targets.

Lockett had 5 targets here but has had 2-3 targets in a game the four games prior (and 3 TDs).

Lockett has 7 TDs YTD and is on pace for 12+ TDs this season. His catch counts and yards are so low, even when he scores a TD he barley cracks 10 fantasy points in a game.

-- Greg Zuerlein (3/3 FG, 3/3 XP) is the best kicker in fantasy. He’s on a BYE Week 12 – you can’t let him go if at all humanly possible. You have to plan to keep him which is more stress on your Week 12 KC-LAR bye week hell many FFM’ers are going to have.

-- I know you know Aaron Donald (4 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3.5 TFLs) is great, but here’s how great the last 7 games:

3.9 tackles, 1.78 sacks, 2.28 TFLs per game…that’s sick.

-- DST notes…

The Seattle-DST isn’t bad, they just keep drawing the Rams it seems (twice in the last 5 games). Just note – they have games with SF Weeks 13 and 15. The problem…Weeks 14 (MIN) and Week 16 (KC). The dueling SF games is going to be a top 5 play those weeks.

The Rams-DST may go on waivers this week – facing KC and then a BYE Weeks 11-12. I’d tell you not to get excited when you see them, but they do have DET Week 13 and ARI Week 16. Weeks 14-15 with CHI-PHI are problems.

Unless you see Aqib Talib back, I can’t get super-excited for this DST.

The Rams are #4 in FantasyPros DST PPG YTD, but a big chunk of their scoring happened Weeks 1-2 (with Talib, and shutting out Sam Bradford). They’ve not been top 10 overall from about Week 3 on.

-- FF-playoff notes…

You want the Rams offensive weapons in friendly weather conditions, and you get that mostly. Week 13 in a dome (DET). Week 15 home/LA. Week 16 in a dome (ARI). It’s Week 14 that’s a worry – December in Chicago. Pray for a break in the weather there and you’re home free with all the Rams weapons.

Seattle loves to run but faces top 12 run defenses Weeks 12-15. Not devastating but you’d rather not…for whatever RB you think will be starting by then.

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Mike Davis

27 = Penny

02 = Prosise

50 = Higbee

16 = Everett

41 = Vannett

24 = Dickson


49 = Dante Fowler

33 = Dion Jordan

10 = Rasheem Green


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>