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2018 Week 11 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Bucs v. Giants

Date:
November 23, 2018 12:19 PM
November 23, 2018 12:18 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game overview is easy… The Giants used Saquon Barkley or OBJ on every play they could (33 of the team’s 48 touches between them), Eli Manning dumped safe passes, Ryan Fitzpatrick rained bombs that didn’t land for his team this time, so the Bucs got down 24-7 at one point, then Fitz was punished with a benching, Jameis came in and was a garbage-time master and got the team back into the game but ultimately fell short. Typical game for both these two teams…especially Tampa – down a bunch, frenzied comeback that falls short, but was never really a threat.

Both teams are terrible, and Tampa Bay takes the lead in being worse/better positioning for their 2019 draft pick order over NYG. We project TB to finish 4-12/5-11.

The Giants have a fantasy of winning the NFC East as the leaders are at 6 wins, right now, and the Giants could be at 4 wins after Week 12 (vs. PHI). If they could get to 8 wins and that’s all it takes…then, maybe…but NYG has CHI, at IND coming up among their games. They need to go 6-0 to get to 9-7 or 5-1 to get to 8-8. I’m pretty sure the team that barely gets by SF and TB for a big two-game winning streak is not considered a threat to win out. The Giants will finish with 4-5 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- This was the tale of two QB situations.

Consider that neither of these QBs are likely to be the 2019 starter (Winston or Eli). You know who is walking into a great situation? The 2019 QB of either of these teams…if it is a solid veteran versus a terrible rookie (and that seems like all the 2019 NFL Draft has).

The new Bucs QB gets a new head coach/staff with Evans-Godwin-Humphries-Howard as receiving weapons.

The Giants are really attractive…OBJ-Shepard-Corey Coleman(?)-Evan Engram with Saquon and an offensive minded head coach.

These two teams are waiting to make a QB fantasy viable depending on which way they go. What if Nick Foles or Teddy Bridgewater types land here?

I dream all that…and it will probably be Eli again, and ‘the Bucs like how Winston finished and paid him money’.

-- I know many of you are forced to go Jameis Winston (12-16 for 199 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) Week 12, and somehow you still think Winston is hands-down a better fantasy salvation play than Dalton-Eli or even over Mayfield-Lamar. Why? Because the mainstream thinks it and is pushing it.

Winston is their guy. They need this to work. The moment he was announced starter…right into the top 8 for the week for fantasy…let’s all just forget the disaster he was just weeks ago…GETTING BENCHED FOR PERFORMANCE!! Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t get a top 10 ranking ever, despite the fact he’s been the #1-2 fantasy QB since Week 3.

Trubisky, to the mainstream = ‘This can’t keep up.’

Winston, to the mainstream = ‘He’s a star waiting to happen.’

Don’t get sucked in by the mainstream…they have been wildly wrong about Trubisky and Winston for years, year after year. Why trust them wholeheartedly on it this week? They like Winston better than Mayfield this week for reasons I do not understand.

I get being forced into Winston but note – if he throws a couple picks and mentally breaks down/get relieved and you blow Week 12…that blood is on your hands.

Winston isn’t a good QB trying to bust through a bad team/coach. Winston sucks and he throws blind passes all over hoping they land. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don’t…and when they don’t it falls apart quickly.

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-- The tale of two TEs…

Evan Engram (2-66-0/2) doesn’t see a target until midway through the 3rd quarter and played the 3rd-most snaps of any NYG TE…which is disgusting.

Then, with 4 minutes left and TB closing fast, Engram fires off the line, blows past the LB in coverage like he does almost every play and Eli hits him in stride and Engram turns on the jets for a beautiful 50+ yard play. A play he should have 1-2-3 times a game.

We want the 50+ yard running past everyone Engram. We’re getting the lower and lower snaps Engram who doesn’t see targets until the last 5 minutes.

Drop him if you want (redraft), keep as your 2nd TE hoping for a re-launch if you want. I want to believe but reality is screaming he’s a TE2 ahead.

I’d much rather have Cameron Brate (2-16-0/3) than Engram, and I’ve been making that swap everywhere I can for redraft this week.

Brate is a proven TE 1 producer and pretty talented. His crime was – being on the same team with O.J. Howard. Now, OJH is on I.R. and it’s Cam’s game now…for the first time since 2016.

In Brate’s last 30 games with Winston starting…16 TDs…over a TD every other game. In 2016, with no OJH – 8 TDs (in 15 games). In 2017, with OJH…6 TDs – and Howard with 6 TDs as well…12 TE TDs in 2017 for Tampa (mostly Winston). OJH took over in 2018…Brate now takes back over. Only Travis Kelce is more likely to score a TD in a game the rest of this season, and maybe Zach Ertz as well. Brate is that good/hopeful/productive.

-- The tale of two WRs...

Corey Coleman (1-9-0/1) looks like he’s making a real effort to get his career on track. He’ll likely never be a star in NYG with OBJ-Saquon there…but it makes me think – Sterling Shepard’s fantasy future is pretty hosed. If Coleman rises a bit and Evan Engram re-launches. How is Shepard going to matter for FF until he leaves via free agency?

-- Fantasy Playoff notes for these two teams…

I wouldn’t want to count on Jameis down the stretch as my primary or emergency QB. Weeks 14-16: NO, at BAL, at DAL. He’s going to get destroyed and like burnout Mike Evans and friends with him…which helps Brate see more looks potentially. Fitz will be back somewhere in that Weeks 14-16 range…it’s a bad group of defenses for JW to navigate – he hates pass rush pressure.

NYG has at WSH, TEN, at IND in Week 14-16…not great, not bad. I wouldn’t put much stock into projecting the receivers, etc., ahead because Kyle Lauletta may get a start or two in there…and that changes things.

Snap Counts of Interest:

40 = Ellison

18 = Simonson

17 = Engram

65 = Evans

53 = D Jax

49 = Humphries

23 = Godwin

04 = Watson

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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