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2018 Week 11 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Chiefs v. Rams

Date:
November 20, 2018 12:32 PM
November 20, 2018 12:31 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

What can I even write/type about this game? You saw it. We built fantasy teams on some/most of the key players in this game…and almost everyone them performed at or above expectations here.

If you’ve been with FFM this year/for years…nothing in this game shocked you – it just delighted you. And that’s what we’ve been planning on since the beginning of the calendar year (and in some cases back in 2016 and 2017).

Mission accomplished…for this week, at least.

I have six note items from this game that I want to hit, and then I’ll go into the regular format of recap/analysis…just a shorter version of player analysis because, come on – this game will never be duplicated in the regular season again this season (maybe for years), so it’s hard to make any sweeping fantasy theories from it.

Six things…

1) How can you watch any other football game this year after this?

This, like, ruined football for us for forever. Like…how are you going to sit down and watch Colt McCoy vs. Dak Prescott on Thanksgiving? How will you paint your face and go cheer for any team involved in Jags v. Bills? How could you want to watch the Bills or Jags offense operate now? You should be furious if your favorite team isn’t aspiring to offense/passing games like we saw Monday night.

Diehard football people who want to ‘establish the run’…please go away. You’re not wanted here anymore. The huge number of empty seats in your stadiums are demanding you aspire to what was witnessed here in this game.

NFL owners have to stop hiring Mike Vrabel’s, and Doug Marrone’s, and Steve Wilks’s – the game has passed them and Rex Ryan by.

This game should be the tipping point moment to alter NFL history for good. It will, and it won’t. High School and College coaches were inspired by this MNF game…but they’ve been ahead of the NFL coaching for years/a decade. The NFL establishment doesn’t want any of this because they don’t understand how to coach up-tempo offenses or handle dynamic playmakers. They want ‘smash-mouth’ players who divorce their families to look at film all day long. I’m sure the Raiders and Cardinals and Bills watch a lot of tape…and they still suck and are boring to watch and no one wants to play for them.

This game should be a warning, a change-moment in the NFL…but, if I know the NFL, and I do – the establishment will fight this and plant fake news stories and analytics on how the passing game doesn’t actually win but run games and defense does. Doug Marrone and Mike McCarthy cannot have the NFL change philosophy or everything they are about is a modern-day fraud about to be exposed.

This was a game the NFL should aspire to…but the ‘insiders’/establishment are scared to death of it.

2) Proof of the NFL’s antiquated ways… All I heard all week leading up to his game was national football analysts talking about ‘establishing the run’ as the way to win this particular game. Ha! Neither team even pretended to establish the run here. They both played their best cards (the passing game) and went to war.

Every football analyst was wrong about this game, just like they’ve been wrong all year/for years. Which leads me to this…

The NFL will die in-time unless they overhaul the establishment…and they won’t; not easily. The NFL is so antiquated in thinking it is mind-boggling. They scout/side with the wrong QBs in the NFL Draft…and get much of the draft valuations wrong. They think Todd Gurley is a clear-cut NFL MVP, when he’s not even in the top 5 most important players on his own team. The NFL mindset has to change NOW…but it won’t; not for a while.

The NFL created this stupid analyst class in the NFL. They want nonsense analysis. They think you’re a bunch of dumb Neanderthal face-painting fans who wear jerseys of your favorite player to bed. They want no criticism of their product…thus, they pay for their own news network to act like silly goofs and fawn over ‘stars’ masquerading as ‘analysis’. If any big organization has pundits who talk against the NFL…their network’s TV contracts are threatened to get them back in line.

The People’s Republic of the NFL…and their State Sponsored NFL Network (and ESPN begging to stay in the club too).

The NFL is a walking definition of Socialism/Communism at it’s finest. They control every aspect of the market and players and try to control all the talk about it. And when that happens…you get weak leadership, shut down real analysis, and a poor product.

Example…?

The ESPN Booger McFarland-Jason Witten analysis of football games is an abomination. It’s not just ‘not good’ or ‘bad’…it is childish and moronic…empty/devoid of anything interesting. The thing is – someone hired that on purpose…paid a lot of money for it. Someone continues to employ it on purpose. Why isn’t the NFL mad at it and demanding change? The NFL wants Colin Cowherd and Bill Simmons to shut up and Booger McFarland and Jason Witten to keep talking. They want idiotic, safe, non-combative/non-questioning coverage of their product.

I don’t need Booger McFarland telling me why Aaron Donald is a good player the entire night…after a full breakdown of it on the pregame shows. I already knew that Donald was great…everybody knows that. Why don’t you tell us more about Cory Littleton, Samson Ebukam, Dorian O’Daniel? Tell us things we may not know as much about. They can’t because they have no idea. They only know the 2-3 stars pushed by ‘The Shield’.

I don’t need Jason Witten telling me Kansas City didn’t want to start out down 7-0 with a million penalties early. No shit. He said it 3-4-5 times. No kidding. “They want to start fast” is not intelligent commentary. “They like to follow up big plays with another big play” is what an idiot would say…but it was said this game by Witten, and probably every Monday night.

Booger-Witten is a total embarrassment and is the embodiment of what ESPN and the NFL thinks of you and what it wants to give you.

Not only is Booger-Witten terrible at analysis, so is every non-Romo analyst out there just about. How can an entire industry be so terrible? It’s on purpose…not mischievous but this is how dumb the NFL establishment is – they don’t know talent and they don’t want anyone questioning their product. They want ex-players kissing current coach’s asses and gently promoting/not hurting the product. It’s so bizarre what lapdogs every NFL game analyst is to head coaches

Why are you surprised at the wrongness of football scouting and analysis year after year…when the NFL demands and promotes the wrong people to analyze its product? The NFL establishment (coaches and GMs) don’t want anyone smart critiquing them either…or the Emperor will be found to not be wearing clothes after all.

Booger-Witten is everything that’s wrong with NFL decision making and its future growth. Eventually it will change, but not until the consumers (and the empty seats in stadiums every Sunday are a good start) vote with their wallet and their feet.

All your league-mates...they get their football 'insider' info from the people that bring you Booger-Witten! How great is that!

3) If Jared Goff is not near/at the top of the MVP board for analysts then there’s more proof of the NFL problem. All the NFL smart people painted Jared Goff as a bust after a few viewings in 2016 (because the problem could never be the beloved coaching/Jeff Fisher). As Goff broke out in 2017, the analysts fought it all the way. Fantasy analysts predicted his downfall and had him as a likely ‘fantasy bust’ this offseason.

We were all (FFM’ers) getting Goff as our 2nd QB, in a lot of cases…yes, the league MVP was available after pick 100…or pick 125…or even pick 150 in your redraft depending on when you drafted.

Thank you Booger-Witten Football establishment for making my job easier.

4) Why were these teams kicking field goals early in the game deep in the red zone? Was there anyone, besides Booger-Witten, that felt like this was going to be a low-scoring, run-game, possession type of game?

Man, early in the game, knowing these two teams, if I were a head coach – I would have told all my staff and team all week -- ”We’re going for it every time on 4th-down and 10-15 yards or less on the opponent’s side of the field.”

If you gave up a TD in this game…so what? You knew your team could fire right back.

That’s why I still don’t think the NFL is ready for change, and that this game was only a part ‘tipping point; to change football. Had both teams just gone for a bunch of 4th-downs, the NFL may have changed more for the better. They didn’t. Even these two radical teams/head coaches still believe, to some degree, of conservative/playing not to lose mindsets.

This game should have taught us – get a new era, up-tempo passing QB and just let them go. The Bears could be the best team in football if they gave into the ‘dark side’.  The Browns will be the next great NFL team in 2019 to rise up out of nowhere if they give into it (you’ll tell by the new head coach they hire).

Davis Webb still can’t get a serious look in the NFL…but Matt Barkley does. Davis Webb sitting idle all season is everything wrong with the NFL mindset in the embodiment of one player. If you don’t know why/haven’t been with me long…I don’t have time to go into it again here.

5) A lot of people set fantasy records this week – highest scoring week, biggest scoring differential/win, etc. I’m getting a lot of emails and text, etc., on it. Keep ‘em coming because I live for this.

I spend my whole year, every day, working on this stuff so we can all prosper – your emails of your stories of what happened because of last night/this season…they fuel me. Seriously. What’s the point of being a great chef if you never see people eat your food or have them tell you how much they loved your meal?

Who understands what happened to you last night more than me? Try explaining it to your non-FF spouse/lover. Ask my wife/lover…as I tried to explain to her. You can’t…not with the unwashed.

Rejoice! And, hey…I appreciate all the accolades for helping bring this about. You had to act on it, so kudos – you’d be surprised how many people sample our work and discount it as ‘no one else is saying that’ and they walk away. Congrats to you. Thank you for your praise to me.

Hey…I’m just a normal human being. I put my pants on one leg at a time…just like you. Only, once my pants are on – I’m the greatest football scout the world has ever known.  

6) You got two choices today. (1) Celebrate and enjoy this week’s victory all day. Buy that Venti not the Grande. Get a dessert at the restaurant. Bask in the glow. Or (2) Go… ”…but, yeah, they’re all on a BYE this week! What am I going to do?

We’ll get it figured out. We’ve been preparing for weeks. You have your QB2 ready, or you should…or we’ll get one. We’ll work waivers smartly. It’s going to be a tough week, but we’ll fight through it.

We got Tuesday night Video Q&A, a special Wednesday middayET edition and a Thursday morningET one. I’m here to help…as always…just like last night.

Finding you a viable tight end? That I can’t do. I’m not a frickin’ miracle worker over here with my stupid Evan Engram. You know who didn’t matter to my record-setting week…my terrible tight end. I’m not letting them spoil my day. I’ll deal with them later/Wednesday.

OK, now back to the traditional analysis…

The Rams move to 10-1, which is good because had the Chiefs won…they’d have more a case to sit/rest players in a few weeks. The Rams HAVE TO stay ahead of one-loss New Orleans for home field, since they lost to them earlier this season.

You liked this game? How about Rams at Chicago in a few weeks? That will be interesting…could be the moment Mitchell Trubisky finds his next gear…or not.

The Rams project to a 14-2 record to the finish. 15-1 in range…especially if the Saints lose ahead (and we think they will). The Rams should have to play all the rest of the season for #1 seed chase. The Saints have the Panthers to play twice still.

The Chiefs could afford a loss because the Patriots lost their last game, as did the Chargers. KC will finish 14-2 if they want, 13-3 if they don’t need games late season. We need the Patriots and Steelers putting pressure on KC for the #1 seed.

I pray for a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl.

Fantasy Player Notes…

I’m not going to fawn over the obvious…I already know Mahomes-Goff-Cooks-Hill-Kelce-Woods are great, that’s why we built fantasy teams around them. I’m going to hit some second-tier items from this game.

-- Did anyone notice Malcolm Brown (4-15-0) was in A LOT, early in the game, over Todd Gurley (12-55-0, 3-39-0/3)? In the biggest game of the year(s), MVP Gurley ran 12 times and didn’t score. If anyone votes him as MVP again, they should be shot on sight.

It did make me re-think…I guess Malcolm Brown will get the work the rest of the way if Gurley is down. There was a huge sign of trust for Brown in this game.

The Rams don’t really need Gurley to be the best team in football…which means not-MVP, as I’ve said for two years.

You know who is the league MVP…or should be? Not Mahomes or Goff or Luck or Brees or Aaron Donald (although he may be #2, right ‘Boog’?) – and they’re all viable candidates. It’s…Tyreek Hill. No one changes games more than Tyreek…you change your pass coverage, your punt strategy. He’s a walking TD waiting to happen on every play. Who else is like that? THE most dangerous player in the league, hands down.

Actually, KC would be fine without Tyreek, kinda. I guess Jared Goff really is the MVP…and there is NO way the NFL establishment will give it to him because they bashed him for 1.5 years leading up to now. They won’t highlight their error by voting him MVP…it will be Brees over Goff, among others over Goff.

Now, if Goff came out and bashed the President…then he’d win MVP in a landslide. So, there’s that chance for him…because football analysis and coverage is all about true, deep scouting and not emotion and politics.

-- I told you Josh Reynolds (6-80-1/8) was a strong WR2 this week. You’re welcome. Was an inch away from a 2nd TD in this game. He’s a WR2 the rest of the way on this unstoppable force of a passing game.

I didn’t tell you Chris Conley (7-74-2/8) would matter. I love Conley but been shying away all year because the Chiefs have. Not here. Maybe, KC gets Conley more involved ahead? You forget how good he is. Not good news for Sammy Watkins if Conley catches St. Patrick’s eyes ahead.

-- Gerald Everett (3-49-2/4) and Tyler Higbee (6-63-0/7) with huge games…is this the TE relief opportunity we crave?

No.

They aren’t a part of a meticulous plan for this offense, never have. They are guys involved in a stat explosion game…showing how smart Goff is to use every weapon he had in this war.

-- KC DL Chris Jones (6 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) has been as good as Aaron Donald lately. I whiffed on him in my CFM NFL Draft scouting. We didn’t see it in the scouting metrics. He’s here now. 9.0 sacks in his last 7 games…a sack in every one of those 7 games.

See, it’s easy to admit scouting errors…especially when they are rare. Especially, when you just want the truth. If the NFL started self-assessing and apologizing for errors, they wouldn’t have enough time in the day.

Also, Dorian O’Daniel (4 tackles) is starting now, I guess. He started/played 43 snaps…to Reggie Ragland’s 8 snaps. Of this, I was right in my scouting.

-- You started the KC-DST and Rams-DST in this juicy matchup, right? Wow, who would have known 50+ points allowed = DST greatness in a week.

All in on the Chiefs-DST the rest of the season (after the BYE). As we’ve been pushing.

Perhaps, I should also say…all-in on the Rams-DST too. They’ve been giving up a ton of everything…but getting TDs all over. Some DSTs you just look past opponent…that’s the Bears-Chiefs-Rams, in that order. The Steelers are about there too.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

Really? What do you want me to analyze the schedule for Mahomes and Goff? Everything on KC-LAR is great and we ride them off into the sunset!! End o’ story.

-- Seriously, you don’t get fantasy weeks like this…ever. Do something different today to celebrate it. I’m serious. Take someone out to a restaurant. Get that Frappuccino midday that you never do. Do something. We always spend all this time complaining about player usage, bad TEs, RB depth, why didn’t I take Gurley over DJ…can we just enjoy what is working…working at an extreme level?

Let me know how you celebrated…even if stupid to you and think it will be stupid to me. It will make sense to me…and not your therapist or spouse/lover, but I’ll get it.

Well wishes, celebration stories, general rejoicing and lavish praise for me: rc4metrics@gmail.com

Snap Counts of Interest:

79 = Woods

78 = Reynolds

70 = Cooks

68 = Gurley

14 = Brown

59 = Higbee

23 = Everett

69 = Tyreek

64 = Conley

35 = Dem. Robinson

05 = Watkins

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>