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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 11 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Panthers v. Lions

November 21, 2018 10:55 PM
November 21, 2018 11:15 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

All you care about in a CAR-DET recap is…what the H am I supposed to do now that Mitchell Trubisky isn’t playing against the Lions on Thanksgiving. We’ll get into that at the very end of this. First let’s dispatch with the CAR-DET particulars.

Carolina led 10-3 at the half and 13-3 after three…because Carolina/Cam did that thing where the wallow around half asleep and then realize they are running out of time and then insert their best player (Curtis Samuel) after not using him the entire game and start ‘hurrying up’…and  the plan works, which begs the question “What the hell is Norv Turner thinking?”, which is a question that’s tortured me in fantasy for many years now.

The Carolina Samuels race back to tie the game at 13-13 off a Curtis Samuel brilliant TD catch. They then immediately give up a TD to allow DET back into the lead, 20-13. The Samuels race down and score a TD to make it 20-19, down one…and decide to ‘go for two’.

Because they are geniuses and not complete morons, the Panthers take out the catalyst WR of the comeback (Samuel)…and thus the most dynamic/TD-proficient player in the NFL, non-QB, aside from Tyreek Hill, was on the sidelines as Cam dropped back to pass and couldn’t find anyone open – Cam fired a useless pass incomplete and they lose the game by one.

Carolina falls to 6-4, and basically blows any chance at trying to catch the Saints late in the season (when they play twice in the last 3 games). They deserve to lose because they are ‘too cool for the room’ most games…waiting until the 4th quarter to hit the gas pedal. If they lose to Seattle this week…they could be going down in flames. Good news for the other NFC wild card hopefuls. Seattle could push past Carolina with a win over them Week 12 – Seattle and Washington having tiebreaker advantages over the Panthers if it comes down to it. Huge game with Seattle this week.

Detroit stays alive in the playoff race…now 4-6 and seemingly doomed vs. Chicago, but WHOOPS…no Trubisky. If the Lions pull off a win this week over CHI…they could be 7-7 with two games left at the end with MIN and at GB. Detroit is not strong enough to pull off a playoff run…and they probably get whacked by Chase Daniel and are dispatched from the playoffs after this week. We see them more 6-10/7-9 to the finish.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- John Ross and Randall Cobb and Donte Moncrief, etc., type WR3 hopefuls are nice and logical and useful right now – but Curtis Samuel is producing WR3 numbers playing 30% of the snaps in a game.

My message on Curtis Samuel (5-55-1/7)…

If the Panthers every wake the hell up and go, “You know what…the guy that can’t stop scoring TDs via land or air, and is our best technician at WR and might be out best tailback – maybe, we should start him and get him 8-10 touches a game?” If that happens, and you have Samuel…you’re looking at a WR1.5-2.0 candidate in an instant. A game-changer. The next Tyreek Hill, only nowhere near as good, but better than everyone else claimed to be Tyreek-ish.

That’s a powerful player…IF it happens.

Likely, Norv Turner likes Jarius Wright’s film study habits and sticks with him, but maybe…just maybe he gets a clue and turns to Samuel as a starter/feature.

Curtis Samuel has run the ball 4 times this year and has averaged 10.8 yards per carry and a TD every two touches.

Last year, Samuel rushed the ball 4 times and averaged 16.0 yards per carry.

Ask me how many times Samuel ran the ball this game that Carolina had 3 points in after three quarters?

Zero…equal to Norv Turner’s offensive coordinating abilities.

Even the mainstream knows what’s up. Check this out: https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/11/nfl-panthers-curtis-samuel-snap-count-stats-fantasy-football/amp

-- They have no issue starting D.J. Moore (7-151-1/8), even though he’s inferior to Samuel as a WR. I’m not dissing Moore…it’s just Samuel is better. DJM had his best outing for sure here…it’s just Samuel is better.

Moore will have this kinda game and then next week -- 2 catches for 24 yards.

-- Kenny Golladay (8-113-1/14) put on a show. Use this tape for a resume on why I said he had WR1 abilities and potential…I was just a few weeks early on that call.

Golladay was so good here, I cannot put it into words. Catches with DBs draped on him…breaking tackles…leaping catches…several ‘how the heck did he do that?’ moments. James Bradberry is a tough cover corner and Golladay was special against him…and it wasn’t because of Matt Stafford. Stafford was throwing prayers to Golladay -- and KG turned water into wine.

This was one of the best performances I’ve seen a WR have this season. He really is a WR1 talent. I’m deathly afraid of his schedule ahead, but after watching this…maybe, I should be afraid for his opponents.

What a performance.

You want in on the Golladay experience for 2019+ in dynasty the moment he has a down game to trade for him off of.

-- Bruce Ellington (6-52-0/9) had a ‘someone has to catch passes on this team’ kinda game. His Lions debut…and 9 targets. He’s a solid talent. He’s a random WR3 hopeful in PPR when Marvin Jones is out.

Brandon Powell? Ha! Inactive.

-- Kerryon Johnson (15-87-1, 2-10-0/2) will miss a week or two+. So, we turn are hopes and dreams to Zach Zenner…and I’m pretty sure that will be a wasted energy.

Some speculate Zenner might start Week 12. I’d almost guarantee this will be Blount-Riddick to start and Zenner seeing a touch here or there. And when the Bears stuff everything, they’ll not be impressed with Zenner in his 1-2 carries given and he’ll get no more.

Zenner was put on the practice squad and is only promoted because sucky Ameer Abdullah finally failed enough to get cut. The team that liked Abdullah over Zenner is now going to push Zenner, really? The staff that had Kerryon go down and didn’t get Zenner involved here…they are going to push Zenner? Hardly. I wish, but I bet the NFL is the NFL here.

Deep sleeper hope, but a bad matchup for it to try to launch.

If you’re newer to FFM…Zach Zenner is the best RB talent on the Lions and has been buried for years. Any time he’s been given an extended chance he’s shown well…and then they take it away.

-- If you own Christian McCaffrey and you’re cruising to the FF-playoffs…are you considering emergency handcuff Cameron Artis-Payne (1-1-0)? Keep him in mind.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

Detroit has at ARI, at BUF, MIN in Weeks 14-16. I worry about White-Rhodes for Golladay late in the season – that’s a murder’s row on fantasy numbers. Not great for Stafford either.

Carolina has @CLE, NO, ATL Weeks 14-16. Should be OK for Cam, as most games are. Devin Funchess would be stifled with Ward-Lattimore-Trufant, for sure.

-- The Bears vs. Lions on Thanksgiving MINUS Trubisky?

Chase Daniel is not the worst. He’s a decent backup. He’s not Trubisky but he’s not a total disaster. In the preseason, Chase blew through two wins in his starts Week 3 and 4 with 4 TDs/0 INTs total.

Daniel is likely to dump passes out of the backfield to Tarik Cohen and throw real passes a lot to Allen Robinson, and likely ignore Gabriel-Burton, but mostly he’ll mostly hide behind a Jordan Howard running game if the Bears get a lead.

When the Bears take a lead, they tend to shut things down on offense and play Steve Wilks ball far too much…so, they definitely will with Daniel. Low volume, high efficiency pass game -- and a bigger run game projected for the Bears. Just let the defense sit on Detroit and let the clock run.

My question is – is this Trubisky injury going to go past this week? Is it better for them to hold Trubisky out this week and next (at NYG) to be ready for Weeks 14-15 with LAR and GB? If Trubisky is your everything in fantasy…you might have a two-week issue here. He will have 11 days to heal from here until the NYG game, so that’s good.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Golladay

45 = TJ Jones

33 = Ellington

19 = Andy Jones

33 = Kerryon

27 = Riddick

12 = Blount

03 = Zenner

48 = Funchess

45 = DJ Moore

41 = Wright

16 = Samuel…16? Are you %$$#@&$%#$ kidding me?


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>