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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 11 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Texans v. Redskins

November 19, 2018 9:32 PM
November 20, 2018 9:00 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Houston-Washington 1st thing this morning? Oh, we’ll be getting to KC-LAR this day. You’ll have to wait for it!! I don’t even know how I’ll get any work done today.

Well, this was Houston’s 7th win in-a-row. The Texans are currently the luckiest team in all the NFL. The team most blessed by God, apparently. Whatever team they play next is going to have a plague placed upon them…so, start preparing for that TEN-CLE-IND.

The Texans 7-game win streak started way back when with the Colts shockingly going for a 4th-down in their own territory in OT, missing it…and setting up an easy game winning FG for the Texans. They then luckily skipped by Dallas in OT. They were then totally outplayed by Buffalo but won it late. They then beat Jacksonville in a game Bortles was pulled for Cody Kessler. They then walloped Miami. They then saw Denver miss a game winning FG at the buzzer to hand Houston their 6th win. They then broke Alex Smith in two, literally, and held off Colt McCoy as the Redskins missed a game winning FG at the buzzer. Houston is 7-3, they should probably be 3-7.

Houston is 7-3…headed to a big clash with Tennessee this week…WHOOPS! Marcus Mariota’s elbow may be out of commission. Week 13 Houston vs. Cleveland…Baker Mayfield accidentally falls into a wood chipper on Thanksgiving Day.

If Mariota is out this week, Houston will be at 9-10 wins heading to Week 17 vs. the Jags…who will likely be out of the race and set up Houston for a 10+ win season and the AFC South title. The Chargers are the other luckiest team in the NFL…they’ll likely draw Houston in the 1st-round of the playoffs and get the win…unless Philip Rivers falls into that wood chipper looking for Baker Mayfield. Houston has to be the worst team to ever win seven games in a row in league history.

If Mariota is OK…Houston could get-got this week but still stumble to the finish line and get caught by my long-shot bets a few weeks ago – betting the Colts, with deep odds, to win the AFC South back when they had 1-2 wins.

The beginning of the Redskins collapse started here. Falling to 6-4, going to Dallas on Thanksgiving to get obliterated by the Cowboys and falling out of 1st-place. Washington will be lucky to finish with 8 wins this season. Too many injuries…the O-Line, their best CB, and now their franchise QB. It’s too much to overcome.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I’m not joking about Keke Coutee (5-77-0/9). I’m serious. He may be the strong PPR WR2 waiver salvation we’ve been looking for…the cheap/readily available WR2 with WR1 weeks…one with upside now and into the future.

The various clues to this crime that have me excited…

-I didn’t think Coutee was anything all that special a talent entering the NFL Draft. Obvious athlete…4.43 40-time, 6.93 three-cone, 14 bench reps, 34.5” vertical. Very solid…not off-the-charts. What I saw in preview, not in-depth scouting…typical speedy, thinner-framed, questionable hands performer for Texas Tech. Great junior season (left early for draft), 93 catches, 1,429 yards, 10 TDs…but that’s ‘OK’ in Texas Tech’s offense.

He didn’t standout for me at all.

-Doesn’t do much in the preseason. Is hurt and misses the first three games. Is active for Week 4…and I’m thinking, “Who cares?” Bruce Ellington had moments for Houston as the #3 WR, but mostly disappointment. Braxton Miller was a failure. What’s average, rookie Keke Coutee going to do?

11 catches for 109 yards on 15 targets…and two carries in his debut.

Say What?

15 targets in his debut as a slot/underneath WR. That’s attention-getting. That’s, actually, shocking. Certainly, it can’t keep up.

6 catches for 51 yards and a TD on 7 targets his next game (Week 5).

Now, he has my attention -- but I still don’t really believe.

*He goes 3-33-0/5 Week 6, and I’m thinking reality has struck. He goes 1-3-0/3 in Week 7 and now I know he was overblown. He was also hurt Week 7, hamstring…missed most of the Week 7 game and all of Weeks 8-9-10.

He had two bad fantasy games (one of them with an injury issue) before missing three games with injury…5 games to help people not care about him.

-As he’s trying to get back from his injury the past few weeks, you may have noticed I kept putting him on the ‘waivers to trust’ list…even though he’d not make it back. Why?

The 15 targets debut and the general target share he was getting really grabbed my. The way he was playing grabbed my attention – playing a tougher, underneath role I didn’t see in him capable of. I believed he would be a random deep ball wing/flanker. He was emulating Julian Edelman, in reality in the pros.

While I started to take more interest, I asked more people (in the know) about him/the situation – it seemed like the team loved him beyond the usual lip service. Like the team saw him as a top weapon…an average-sized rookie 4th-round WR as a serious weapon?

Will Fuller’s numbers died when Coutee debuted.

All I’ve heard is chatter about how much Coutee is ingrained in the offenses plans – they see him as an Edelman slot WR with more speed. They see him as their quasi-Tyreek Hill – a difference making weapon. Jet sweeps. Short passes on the move to get him broken away from coverage for big plays.

From what I see. From what the numbers say. From everything I’m hearing from mainstream to insiders…something is happening here bigger than ‘random WR who is not DeAndre Hopkins’. I think we all need to get in on it now.

David Moore, Curtis Samuel…speculation talents we tried to catch on a potential upswing a few weeks ago and it hasn’t worked (for consistency). Coutee, I feel, is different – I think he’s guaranteed money as a WR2 with upside in PPR.

Coutee returned from injury this week and immediately led the team in targets…as Demaryius Thomas got ZERO targets.  

Watching Coutee in this game…he’s playing tough like Edelman. He had a 5+ yard toss in this game where he just pushed away the tackler and darted off for 40 yards. Several times I saw Coutee catch a pass and go and make 2-3-4-5 extra yards being physical.

You know who loves him? His new WR coach…Wes Welker. Coutee is working a lot like Welker…if Welker had 10x the athleticism.

This is not going away. I don’t think this is a random event every other week or so – I think this is the ticket. A legit starter/depth guy for us going forward in redraft and for the future in dynasty.

I’m all in. Currently owned in only 25-35% of standard-sized leagues.

Coutee has played in five games this season. One of them he left very early with his hamstring. Taking the other four games he’s played, here are his per game numbers: 6.3 rec. (9.0 targets), 67.5 yards, 0.25 TDs…8.3 FF PPG/14.6 PPR PPG.

-- How does Colt McCoy (6-12 for 54 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) affect the Washington offense or opposing DSTs?

Well, it’s a slight downgrade but not as terrible as a first reaction might be. McCoy is nothing special but he’s not incompetent like a Sam Darnold or Josh Allen or DeShone Kizer. He’s not that easy of a mark…but he is more turnover prone than Alex Smith (so is about every QB…Smith rarely turns the ball over).

He’s probably more used to working with Maurice Harris and Trey Quinn but he’s not likely to lean exclusively on them…he’ll go after what works…more looking to Doctson-Reed as his time goes on.

McCoy still has to face the fact that he’s missing 3-4 starting O-Lineman, so he’ll be hard-pressed to succeed no matter what.

Next week Dallas-DST goes from solid play to very solid play.

-- Jason Katz hates Jordan Reed (7-71-1/11)…and Reed responds by telling all of us -- how do you like your non-Kelce-Ertz tight ends now?

You know what…

Evan Engram’s team hates him…apparently.

Jack Doyle fights Eric Ebron for FF opportunity.

Vance McDonald is a 4th favorite option for his QB. So is Austin Hooper, in a sense.

Why do we hate Jordan Reed…when he’s his teams top target? In a sea of disaster tight end options?

You could do worse than Jordan Reed (ask me whether I want Evan Engram or Jordan Reed this week…).

-- Rookie Trey Quinn (4-49-0/4) came off I.R. and played the second-most snaps of any WR for Washington. Speaking of Wes Welker…Quinn is a Welker-alike…in a muted passing game without Tom Brady. A lot of 4 catch for 40 yards and no TD games ahead.

-- The great Redskins-DST play for Weeks 14-16 is falling apart. The O-Line has died. Alex Smith is gone. The most important thing to watch/consider – CB Quinton Dunbar is the best defensive player Washington has…and he has been fighting though and injury for weeks and missed this game. He may get shutdown for the year. If so…that’s the final straw on this DST.

-- I’m more excited about the Texans-DST, now, over the Redskins-DST…IF they face Gabbert and not Mariota Week 12.

The Texans got 6 sacks here…but the Redskins have no O-Line.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

IND-NYJ-PHI Weeks 14-16 for the Texans should be a nice run for the passing game. The issue might be at NYJ and at PHI, not ideal for a southern dome team going to the (potentially) cold northeast.

NYG-JAX-TEN Weeks 14-16 for Washington…what Redskins weapons are you using anyway?

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Peterson

17 = By Marshall

16 = Bibbs

64 = Doctson

53 = Quinn

41 = Harris

33 = Floyd

46 = Demaryius Thomas

42 = Coutee


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>