*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)
What I forgot about this game until re-watching it…Miami led this game 24-17 with 8 minutes left. If they had gotten a stop or a fluke turnover, they could’ve won this game – they played well enough to win it. Credit Andrew Luck and Indy…they got a TD, a stop of Miami, and in position for a game-winning FG in the final 8 minutes to win it.
Since I placed my bet on Indy to win the AFC South weeks ago, the Colts have gone from 1-5 to 6-5, but I can’t get the Texans to lose to open up the Colts chances.
We see Indy winning Week 13 at Jacksonville and heading to Houston sitting 7-5…in a do-or-die game for the division. Indy has a good chance of winning out or going 4-1 in their final 5 games. They are going to the playoffs as either a wild card or the AFC South winner. I think we projected Indy with one of the worst records in the NFL back in June 2018…but I was under the belief Andrew Luck would not be back/right. Just missed on that prediction…as he wins the NFL MVP…
Miami has a very solid/OK team, but this game was a dagger to their playoff chances. They are headed to 8-8 at best. They play a Buffalo team this week that has a blip of playoff life and every week is a Super Bowl to them from here on in. It won’t be easy. Miami needs to beat the Bills and then upset either NE or MIN in the next two games after that to stay alive for the playoffs. We see them finishing 8-8.
Fantasy Playoff Notes…
-- Three Miami Dolphins players I want to point out. One we need to put in proper context and the other two are deep-sleepers to have on your radar:
1) Kenyan Drake (8-32-1, 5-64-1/6) is the Miami offense. He’s the Tarik Cohen of the Dolphins. Their best playmaker. When they don’t forget that…he’s an RB1-level PPR asset in his new role as ‘Alvin Kamara’ of Miami. Occasionally, like with Tarik…the teams forgets this some games – and it breaks your FF-heart.
As long as Miami is in the playoff hunt, from here on in, we need to treat Drake more like an RB1.5 for PPR. Not a random RB2-3 that happens to him every so often (it does most RBs).
Drake re-injured his shoulder late in this game…it looked like someone shot him in the arm with a rifle. Looked bad. The next series…Drake was out there taking carries. He should be OK for Week 13…with fear that ‘one good hit’...
2) Leonte Carroo (1-74-1/2) is about to send DeVante Parker to the bench. Two weeks in a row, Carroo has been a low-key MVP for this team. His TD catch here was excellent…leaping over a DB on a 50-50 ball, coming down with it/sticking the landing, and off to the races.
With Amendola (per usual) hurt and Parker sucking (per usual)…Carroo might be a shock starter and producer this week. My best deep-deep sleeper of the week.
3) Durham Smythe (2-27-0/2) is the best receiving TE on the Dolphins. He was targeted on the first pass of the game and again soon after. He took a hit in-game and came off the field slow and then I kinda never saw him again. If he’s OK, he’s a TE2 hopeful who might make a push for a team in need of receiving weapons.
He’s like an Austin Hooper-type option. A little quicker, sleeker.
-- Andrew Luck (30-37 for 343 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is my vote for MVP right now…not Drew Brees. What Luck has accomplished with this WR and RB group is stunning.
-- Marlon Mack (15-85-0, 2-11-0/2) played OK in this game, but came down hard/slamming his head to the ground late and missing a lot of the 4th quarter…or he was headed to a 100+ yard rushing game.
If Mack misses this week, Nyheim Hines (9-28-0, 2-22-0/2) is the obvious play…but he is a very weak runner of the ball. Better receiving back than rusher, but he can work in a pinch.
-- Jack Doyle is done for 2018. Mo Alie-Cox (DNP) will get a chance here. Cox has been hurt for 2 weeks, but the prior 2 games he has a TD in each game (but on 3 catches total).
Alie-Cox may give you a 2-3 catch, 20-30 yards and a TD hope type games ahead.
-- I love the Colts-DST this week…facing Jacksonville will no Fournette, a totally injury-devastated O-Line, and Cody Kessler starting? I love it. Not big on their DST vs. HOU-DAL after that but Week 16 vs. NYG is an option.
-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…
HOU-DAL-NYG in Weeks 14-16 for Indy. Not great for the RBs with HOU-DAL. All clear for Luck-Hilton.
NE-@MIN-JAX in Weeks 14-16 for Miami. You’re only using Drake, and he’s kinda matchup proof because of his new receiving threat role. However, a minor fear that if Miami loses Week 13…things look bleak and maybe resting Drake and his injured shoulder would be the smart thing to do?
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Mack
26 = Hines
08 = Wilkins
37 = Gesicki
30 = O’Leary
10 = Smythe
51 = Stills
24 = Parker
22 = Carroo
22 = Butler
14 = Amendola
40 = Tyquan Lewis
33 = Margus Hunt
17 = Matthew Adams