ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app
App link only works on mobile.
Customer Service
"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2018 Week 12 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Packers v. Vikings

November 29, 2018 11:14 PM
November 30, 2018 12:45 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I felt like I watched the death of the Packers here. I mean, they’ve been dying for a while…this game was kind of the icing on the cake. It’s a shame…it’s a good team. It really should be said – this is the death of Mike McCarthy’s Packers. This is a playoff roster coached into a mess.

Here’s what’s going to happen…you watch…

The Packers will win their next two games (ARI and ATL) at home (jumping to 6-6-1) -- they’re 7-0-1 with Rodgers starting at home the past two seasons to-date.

They will then lose at Chicago Week 15 to end the playoff hopes, essentially. The Packers, with Rodgers starting are 1-9 on the road the last two seasons to-date. Green Bay will finish 8-7-1 or 7-8-1…and out of the playoffs – and this loss to Minnesota really did them in.

Mike McCarthy will be fired. Mike Pettine, the new D-C, will be elevated to head coach – and the Packers will be back to a Super Bowl threat in 2019. He’s a great coach…one of the only good-great coaches out there. Green Bay fans…you want to lose this year and force this change, I promise you.

Then…some idiotic, poorly run franchise will stupidly hire Mike McCarthy…Tampa Bay, NY Jets…I’m looking at you. If the Cleveland Browns make this move…take down Baker Mayfield’s golden projections a notch into the near future.

Minnesota put themselves in a much better spot with this win. The schedule is coming to get them – they have to win one of their next two -- @NE or @SEA to about clinch a wild card hope. We think they’ll find one win there and finish 9-6-1 and leap past all the 9-7 pretenders. The MIN at SEA game in Week 14 is critical for the wild card between them.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The Packers do not have an Aaron Rodgers problem. He has thrown for 20 TDs/1 INT this season. Seriously? What a ratio. He’s averaged 297.4 yards passing per game.

He’s done all this one leg part of the season.

Rodgers has three problems…

1) Mike McCarthy is terrible, and he did a terrible job getting the young receivers ready for this season.

2) There’s no chemistry with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1-3-0/2) and little with Equanimeous St. Brown (3-53-0/5). Also, Jimmy Graham has been useless/zero chemistry as well.

You have the greatest QB talent of the last decade…and you draft three WRs, and rely on Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison, who are barely NFL WRs anymore.

3) The Packers are about to jump to the #1 most sacked team in the NFL. A bad O-Line, too young of a WR group…Rodgers with a 20-1 TD:INT ratio while hurt is an MVP-like feat. He has no O-Line and is getting battered as the season wears on.

I don’t think it gets any better this season – the die is cast. It means Rodgers is a good QB1 not a great one. It means they won’t answer the bell against better defenses – at Chicago Week 15 could be a bloodbath. This week with Arizona may not be a treat either.

-- This game was an example of why I’ve been a Marquez Valdes-Scantling denier…1 catch for 3 yards while playing 83% of the snaps…the catch coming very late in the game. He was not as good as his first two splash games…and he’s not as good as ESB, as I’ve maintained for months.

I don’t think Rodgers cares much for either rookie WR right now, which means WR Jake Kumerow could come of I.R. and shock the fantasy world right away – a guy Rodgers had some chemistry with this preseason. You think I’m just chasing rainbows here, but I really think this could happen fast and be shockingly good…in part, because of the WR connection issues with everyone else right now

You have an I.R. spot on your roster? You could put Kumerow there and see when he gets activated? I think Kumerow will not start right away but get inserted slowly but Rodgers go right to him…and then Kumerow is a darling sleeper waiver pickup the next week for some.

-- The Dalvin Cook (10-29-0, 3-47-1/3) chronicles…

3.5 yards per carry this season.

He had a wide-open run of 70 yards a few weeks ago…minus that Cook has averaged 2.5 yards per carry this year. He’s killing them, but Mike Zimmer will not give up.

Latavius Murray (11-33-0) actually had more carries in this game…the shift to 50-50 might be on, with Cook getting the targets bump.

-- Kyle Rudolph (7-63-0/7) and Kirk Cousins haven’t been great together this season, after a decent start it has been TE2-3 work most of the season -- but they were perfect together in this game. He might carry this into a favorable matchup with NE this week…for those groping for TE help.

-- Can you use these DSTs at all the rest of the season?

Minnesota is #3 in PPG fantasy this season, but @NE and @SEA is not-good ahead. MIA and @DET Weeks 15-16 are fine.

Green Bay is tracking as the #11 fantasy DST this season and making a run at being the top sack team in the NFL this season. Facing Arizona this week is good, then ATL and @CHI is not good and Week 16 @NYJ could be fine if GB still has any playoff life by then.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

Week 14 vs. ATL and Week 16 vs. NYJ works for the passing game if GB is till playing with playoff purpose. Week 15 at Chicago is a no-go…and not good for Aaron Jones either,

@SEA-MIA-@DET in Weeks 14-16 for Minnesota is not great but not awful either. Everything should be fine with the pass game…and Dalvin Cook is his own problem.

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = Cook

28 = Latavius

53 = Adams

44 = MVS

36 = ESB

11 = J’Mon Moore


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>