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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 12 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Raiders v. Ravens

November 29, 2018 2:40 PM
November 29, 2018 2:48 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game wound up 34-17, a big Ravens win…but it masks that the game was 20-17 Baltimore slog (vs. the lowly Raiders) entering the 4th quarter…and that was with the aid of a Ravens punt return TD. Baltimore drove down for a TD to take a 27-17 lead late, and then had a fumble return TD to seal it 34-17. It wasn’t a great game by the Ravens.

Oakland’s last 3 games…kinda gave the Chargers some fits in a 20-6 loss. Beat the Cardinals at Arizona (don’t remind me). And hung with the Ravens at Baltimore before falling. The Raiders are playing with some spirit…they’re just so bad. They need to lose out to hold the #1 pick…they probably will.

Baltimore is 6-5…a two-game win streak with Lamar Jackson, but they haven’t looked very good doing it. Limping by CIN and OAK, at home, back-to-back too-close beats of two of the worst teams in football. The Ravens have playoff hope if they go beat Atlanta this week. They’re in trouble if they don’t. We see the Ravens finishing 8-8/9-7, the meter is close to either outcome right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I’m serious about this Ty Montgomery (8-51-0, 3-13-0/3) thing. He is the better version of Gus Edwards (23-118-0). I’m not downing Edwards, who looks fine in this offense, and I know all the cool kids are on Gus – but it’s just that Montgomery is more experienced, just as big/more athletic, is perfect for the straight-ahead run style of the LJax spread, plus is a former stud WR turned RB…a great receiving option as well.

In PPR, in this game…Gus scored 11.8 points, Ty (in limited action) scored 9.3…a 3-point boost from catches.

Gus Edwards has had back-to-back 100+ yard rushing games…but not seen a target.

In the 2nd-half of this game, when it was still close…too close…the final 17 carries by RBs…Edwards 9 carries, Montgomery 8.

Worst case, Ty is honing in/cutting up Edwards’s upside.

Best case…well, you know…Ty takes a 60-40 or better touch split, because of his boost in pass game targets.

Oh, and Gus Edwards might be hurt…and if Gus is out and Alex Collins is out – guess what big, blocky, straight-ahead runner is getting that sweet 100+ yard rushing game action in the LJax spread?

No, not Kenneth Dixon – it’s Ty Montgomery!

No, not Buck Allen either. Stop trying to confuse my narrative with your alternative Ravens RBs. The LJax spread wants a big, power runner taking the ball and running into/over traffic.

-- Lamar Jackson (14-25 for 178 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 11-71-1) should be the Ravens QB the rest of the season. You think I’m just going with the popular sentiment? I’m not. Jackson is a TERRIBLE QB. The worst thrower of the ball to play in the NFL…in like…ever. He’s a total mess.


The Ravens aren’t beating NE or PIT or KC or about anyone else with Joe Flacco. However, they might be unorthodox enough to beat them with the ace running QB and a solid defense and all-time kicker. It’s John Harbaugh’s choice. Win with LJax this week and he can’t turn back.

If LJax stays in, then Gus Edwards has legitimacy, but so does the Ty Montgomery takeover…and all the WRs and TEs can go into the trash for fantasy.

-- So, now Doug Martin (11-51-1, 3-21-0/4) is back as the lead RB after a respite of a half when Jalen Richard (1-1-0, 2-15-0) took over last week…and, now, is nothing this week.

I think Richard provided too much of a run game spark, and that can’t stand trying to get the worst record/#1 pick, so Richard was reeled in hard this game.

You can’t trust anyone out of this backfield…or on this team at all for fantasy.

-- Marcel Ateman (3-16-0/10) is a really tall, solid #4-5 WR for a football team…he’s just all the Raiders have at the moment. In a sense, he’s a WR threat because ‘someone has to get the ball in games the Raiders will be crushed by KC and PIT the next two weeks.

Maybe it’s Ateman? WR4 with hopes of a WR3, maybe.

-- Matt Judon (5 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) is coming back to life…1.5 sacks through his first 8 games. 4.5 sacks his last 3 games.

2.0 tackles per game his first 7 games…5.5 tackles per game his last 4 games.

-- I don’t trust the Ravens-DST and don’t like their closing schedule. They just allowed 17 points to Oakland and 21 to Cincy the week prior. At ATL, at KC, TB, at LAC the next 4 games. I’m not a fan.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

@KC, TB, @LAC in Weeks 14-16 for the Ravens…should be decent for offense? But we still don’t know the reality of Lamar ahead…as he gets more experience/comfortable or as teams figure him out.

The Raiders…seriously? You want hot takes on Raiders things for the Weeks 14-16? Here’s a hot tip…PLAY YOUR DST AGINST THEM!! That is all.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Boyle

19 = Hurst

18 = Andrews

43 = Edwards

28 = Montgomery

01 = Allen

52 = Jordy

48 = Ateman

39 = Roberts

02 = Hatcher

32 = Cook

19 = Carrier

17 = Lee Smith

28 = Martin

26 = Richard

08 = D Washington


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>