ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty/fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2018 Week 13 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Bills v. Dolphins

Date:
December 8, 2018 8:59 PM
December 8, 2018 9:48 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I’m not sure what to say about this game…I mean…what a mess. 21-17 Miami…someone had to win it? On 4th & 11 from 30 yards out with a minute+ left, Josh Allen scrambled around for like 7 minutes and then saw Charles Clay in the end zone wide open and the rocket arm man threw a wounded duck that dive bombed at Clay’s feet as he was trying to hustle back to save the falling duck. He got his hands on it but couldn’t pull off the miracle and the ball fell to earth…ball game. Josh Allen has one reason for existing…’big arm’…and when ‘big arm’ could’ve won the game he threw a wobbler short. Womp, womp…

Allen’s failure keeps Miami’s playoff hopes alive, now 6-5…trying to keep up with 7-6 TEN and 7-5 (soon to be 7-6) BAL. Miami will likely lose their next two (NE and MIN), or at least lose two more by the end…and finish 8-8 or worse. They are not making the playoffs.

If the Bills had won, they would have had kept slim playoff hopes alive, but now they’re dead. 4-8 on the season, headed to 6-10, at best.

You’re not using any Bills for fantasy, in a normal league. You’re not using anyone but Kenyan Drake from Miami…and this hot mess of a game didn’t do much to change any of that. Well, Zay Jones had two TDs, but…seriously? Are you trusting anything in the Bills passing game? Perhaps Zay…probably not. With that…there’s not much I can point out or help with here…

Fantasy Player Notes:

-- I want to mock anyone who is thinking about using Josh Allen (18-33 for 231 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 9-135-0) for fantasy this week. However, Allen was better for fantasy than about every crap-fest fantasy QB last week…and has rushed for more yards the last two weeks than David Johnson has in like half-a-season.

A season high 2 TD passes, the first time Allen’s hit that mark…and a season high 135 yards rushing. Is he getting better? Absolutely not. He’s awful. 52.9% Comp. Pct. on the season with 5 TDs/7 INTs in 8 games. He’s exactly who everyone of our NFL Draft scouts, except one, said he was.

Can he keep up the rushing tallies? It’s a fool’s errand to think he can. Prior to the last two weeks, he ran for between 19-39 yards in every one of his first 6 NFL games. Sure, he can break loose for some yardage…because he’s always looking to run because he’s such a godawful passer, but he’s not a magical runner. He’s going to get himself hurt trying to escape his own lack of passing ability, you watch.

I would not bet much that Allen is going to go for a third-straight 90+ yard rushing game this week.

Fun fact…another good rushing game for Allen and he might surpass LeSean McCoy as the leading rusher for the Bills this season!

Fun fact, his 135 yards rushing here were more yards than Allen has passed for in three of his 8 games this season.

Fun fact, Josh Allen is a mega-bust QB…a different type of bust but a bust just like Sam Darnold…proving once again NFL scouting of QBs (and any position) is THE WORST. Especially the early in-season CFB claims and the NFL Draft season early/Jan.-Feb. scouting…so, keep that in mind as you see THEIR illustrious mock drafts during the holidays (and any day).

-- You want to trust Zay Jones (4-67-2/9)? It’s not Zay’s fault he’s debatably trustable as a WR3. He deserves better. I mean, you remember what his stat line was the game before this great output? One target, zero catches. Ouch, babe.

However, that was against the Jags…not the other 4-letter J-word, the Jets this week.

Zay is the definitive #1 WR on the team…seeing how all the other WRs got cut this week. I’m not sure there are another WRs on the roster after the literally movie-Purge event by Stone Cole Sean McDermott. Someone has to catch some of Josh Allen’s 10-12 completed passes (on 30 attempts) in a game?

Zay’s a cross-your-fingers WR3 this week.

Like Jordy Nelson is such a sure thing…

-- Here’s my problem with Kenyan Drake (7-31-0, 2-13-1/4)… He’s their Tarik Cohen…the pass game RB weapon, like the only real weapon they have. And, yet, Miami doesn’t really over-use him the way they should in these desperate times. 2 catches in a game…in a do-or-die for the playoff hunt game…really?

However, he’s so good…he finds his way to a TD despite the under-utilization. 6 TDs in his last 6 games, two 2-TD games in his last 5 games. He has 8 TDs this season. He’s an upside play that could score 1-2 TDs any game…with the worry he doesn’t score and tallies all of 40-50 yards with 2 catches.

I think in the tougher games, money on the line, it’s good to use Drake in fantasy because he is their only real hope…all kinds of interesting ways they use him in the pass game, when they use him. MUST win vs. the Pats this week in what could be a windy game demanding a shorter passing game…Drake for a TD is very likely.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

The Bills defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in their last three games…that’s something, right? Facing Sam Darnold Week 14? The Bills are #14 in takeaways this season. #11 in INTs.

You got the Bills Week 14, hoping Zay Jones catches a TD, and hoping Josh Allen runs for 100+ yards the next three weeks. Not that exciting a holiday gift…from: Buffalo, to: fantasy football.

Miami has the Pats and Vikings the next two weeks, so not exciting for anyone on the Dolphins unless Drake does his usual magic…he’s more matchup proof with the way he’s playing as an RB/WR hybrid type. Miami-DST vs. JAX in Week 16…but by then Miami will likely be out of the playoffs, so best to stay away unless the beat NE or MIN prior.

Snap Counts of Interest:

34 = Brice Butler

13 = Isaiah Ford

00 = Leonte Carroo (really brilliant Gase…really smart)

32 = O’Leary

22 = Gesicki

17 = Smythe

66 = Zay Jones

42 = Kelvin Benjamin (then cut)

36 = Isaiah McKenzie (what the?)

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>