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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 13 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Colts v. Jags

December 6, 2018 10:15 AM
December 6, 2018 11:33 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Well, this game cost me some coins. I bet Indy -4.0 heavy. Had you only told me (about this game) the Jags would score just six points, then I would have thought I’d tie the bet at least but likely been assured of a betting win. I would not have guessed the Colts with ‘0’.

In the first half, on five drives, the Colts were in Jags territory every drive. Interceptions, penalties, a missed 4th & 1, missed FG – the Colts should’ve had 10+ points in the first half. Everything went against them…mostly self-inflicted and inflicted by the Jags defense.

In the second half, Jacksonville’s defense went on lock-down. No ‘unlucky’ Colts the final two quarters – the Jags just beat them up. Indy ended the game 5-of-18 on 3rd-down (coming into the game #1 in the league in 1st-down% at 50%+ conversions) and also went 0-for-3 on 4th-downs. It just wasn’t meant to be. Credit the Jags defense…they were inspired and awesome. Protecting the Jags offense which produced 211 yards…

Jacksonville had no reason to play this game tough, but they did. They jump to 4-8 on the season. They are playing for the coaching staff’s jobs…so, I don’t know if they keep up after this or mail it in. The Jags have been a disappointment on defense all year until they were all-world this game.

Indy’s 5-game win streak is halted, and they pretty much lost their AFC North title hopes with the loss. If they can beat Houston this week…then they still need help to get by Houston in the end. We project Indy 9-7 and trying to get a final wild card spot.

*There will be other reminders, but FYI reminder for Dynasty Stash Subscribers – the next weekly Dynasty Stash Video Q&A session will be Friday 2pm-3pmET.

Fantasy Player Notes…

*There’s not much to take away for fantasy from this game. ‘This’ will never happen again. The Colts aren’t getting shutout ahead. The Jags offense will be different next week when Leonard Fournette returns.

A few minor side notes…

-- I’ve been dumping Marlon Mack (8-27-0, 1-6-0/1) in 12-team redrafts all over. There’s still some hope with him, but we’ve got so many RBs flooding in suddenly (Ware, Samuels, Wilson, Jackson) that I don’t need to mess with limited Marlon Mack.

Mack has several problems…

1) He’s always hurt…my great fear of ever loving him.

2) He’s not that good…my baseline fear all along.

3) After being an all-Mack backfield for a blip in the mid-season…Frank Reich has shifted to what he did with Doug Pederson – RBBC. Smart for the NFL, bad for FF.

Mack is working between the 20s, and then Nyheim Hines (4-5-0, 9-50-0/9) comes in like a WR playing RB to work 3rd-downs and two-minute drills and in deficits. Mack barely sees targets. Sayonara, Mr. Mack.

-- Full-scale trust of Fournette upon return – the Jags will run him 25+ times because Doug Marrone has nothing else and he has to win to keep his job. No holding back.

-- Erik Swoope (1-4-0/1) is back from injury. If Mo Alie-Cox is not active…Swoope is in that ‘TD catching’ role in the red zone for the dual-TEs. For whatever that is worth. Swoope has 8 catches this season…3 for TDs.

Swoope has more TD catches (3) this season than Rob Gronkowski (2) or Jimmy Graham (2).

-- Can you trust the Jags-DST?

If this game’s DST shows up every week, I’m all-in. But this was one game following a bunch of mediocrity for FF all season. Mariota-Sanchez-Tannehill is a pretty decent schedule, though! You’re kinda forced to hope/try to see if the Jags stay engaged in some cases.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

Indy-DST is no good until Week 16 hosting NYG…and even better if Kyle Lauletta is starting. Weeks 14-15 with HOU-DAL isn’t easy for Andrew Luck, but Week 14 should be fine. Week 15 with the new Dallas-DST could be bad times.

The only thing of FF-value from the Jags offense is Fournette, and he’s semi-matchup proof because he’s getting 25-30+ touches in a game with Marrone trying to save himself.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Westbrook

45 = Moncrief

36 = Cole

45 = Hines

29 = Mack

05 = Wilkins


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>