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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 13 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Ravens v. Falcons

December 7, 2018 9:36 AM
December 7, 2018 11:11 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Boy, I watch this Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team and I’m not impressed. A three-game win consisting of…

-Barely beating Cincy (24-21) at home. Some 2nd-half luck helped.

-Was scuffling with OAK at home before pulling away late 34-17.

-They led ATL, here, 16-10 after three quarters and just floundered around with bad offense back and forth with the Falcons matching them, but an eventual 26-10 win.

They’re winning, thanks in some part to Justin Tucker, but they do not look good overall…to my eye. The defense has been solid but not ‘lights out’.

I have a feeling they are going top get torched by Kansas City this week. Facing Big Ben, Brees, Cam they are 1-3 this season. Those three QBs and add in Andy Dalton 2x have scored 25.3 PPG against the Ravens defense. You can take the Ravens defense…with a legit QB. They’ve crushed Peterman, Keenum, Mariota and held down Carr, Ryan, Mayfield/Hue era.

The Ravens are now 7-5 and projecting to a 9-7 finish. I think John Harbaugh will use the KC massacre to jettison Lamar Jackson and go back to Joe Flacco, if he’s allowed to.

The Packers are 4-8, playoff hopes dashed here. Likely finishing 6-10.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Lamar Jackson (12-21 for 125 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 17-75-1) looks dreadful as an NFL passer. Just hideous, because he is. He’s functionally incompetent as an NFL passer. However, he runs like no other QB is willing to, and if you put him in an offense that allows him to run-run-run and then try to hit defenses with a surprise pass…and you got a shot, because NFL teams are not accustomed to a QB like this playing this way in the NFL.

He’s nothing like Cam Newton or Michael Vick…he’s more Tim Tebow, only faster.

I have a feeling this is going to end abruptly and poorly…LJax’s career. Remember when Terrelle Pryor was a starting QB in the NFL…and it was great for a few games? Pryor was probably a more talented passer (and receiver).

All the Ravens’ pass game weapons are FF-useless. As an aside/example…John Brown was open for two huge plays for about 100+ yards of work easily, I mean wide-open (as you might imagine from a scrambler who defenses key on and let WRs roam). LJax sailed the two throws downfield to him…not even in the same area code they were so miss-thrown.

-- I would steer clear of any of the Ravens RBs because it’s a three-headed monster.

Gus Edwards (21-82-0) is the lead, and still not seeing any targets…not doing anything but running straight. Smart for this run scheme, weak for fantasy.

Ty Montgomery (3-13-0, 5-42-0/7) is Jackson’s ‘favorite’ receiver…7 targets here, two others gone due to penalty. More points in PPR here than Edwards.

Kenneth Dixon (8-37-0, 1-6-0/1) returned from injury. He looked OK. Just a guy in the mix. Nothing stood out. The fact he took touches on the very first series and got so many touches from his return was a little eye-opening. He’s a risk to split with Edwards with LJax, but once Lamar goes…Dixon could be in line to take the lead of the three-headed monster.

In a regular-sized 12-team-type league…I’d steer clear of anyone from this group, even trying to guess ahead.

-- The Matt Ryan (16-26 for 131 yards, 1 tD/0 INT) slide is happening…1 TD pass in a game in four of his last 8 games. 2-1-2-1 TD passes in a game his last 4 games.

He’s hard to predict, but him going to frigid GB this week smells like trouble.

-- The last two weeks for Tevin Coleman (6-8-0, 1-3-0/3)…14 carries for 14 yards rushing. The Falcons O-Line has fallen apart, and Coleman is splitting carries and barely seeing pass game work. If it wasn’t for his TD catch pace (5 rec. TDs this season), he’s be an RB3-4.

We might see more Ito Smith to the finish here, as Tevin is leaving via free agency at season’s end.

-- Deion Jones (15 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 TFL) returned to action with a flurry. I thought his return would affect Foye Oluokun…but Foye snagged 10 tackles in this game as well.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

ATL has GB in frigid temps this week, then a kinda tough pass defense hosting Arizona, and then a good matchup at Carolina…but it may be a cold weather game as well. Don’t love the setup for ATL’s pass game to shine to the finish.

The Ravens are all about Lamar Jackson for offense, and he’s matchup-proof to some degree. The Ravens defense, to me, is done – at KC this week, hosting Tampa Bay might be good, and then at LAC is not favorable. There’re good defenses with way better matchups out there.

Snap Counts of Interest:

29 = Tevin

24 = Ito

40 = Gus

27 = Ty

17 = Dixon

64 = Deion Jones

52 = Oluokun


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>