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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 14 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Saints v. Bucs

December 15, 2018 7:02 PM
December 16, 2018 12:05 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Tampa Bay led this game 14-3 at the half…they were totally in control of this game. The better team by a mile. Right out of halftime, they strip sacked Brees and had the ball in Saints territory ready to near-put this game away.

After the strip-sack turnover…Tampa missed their field goal. THEN they stopped the Saints again, but then when the Saints stopped TB right after, the Bucs went to punt…blocked punt…full momentum shift…Saints score 25 unanswered and win 28-14…a game Tampa DOMINATED for about 2.5 quarters. Such is a Buc’s life.  

The Saints luckily go to 11-2, and with the Rams getting dropped on their heads by the Bears – the Saints and Rams are at 11-2 with NO having the tiebreaker for the #1 seed. Could be a tough schedule the next three weeks…or not. CAR-PIT-CAR seems ominous but those could all be games with teams who don’t have a winning record at the time they play them. We’ll guess the Saints get it together and go 2-1 in the final stretch to wind up 13-3. 14-2 possible…12-4 possible. Either way, they should be the #2 seed in the NFC at a minimum.

If Carolina can win two of their next 3 games and hit 8-8…they might find a way into the playoffs if they get into a tiebreaker with Philly (whom they already beat this season). If the Panthers win out…they have a great shot at a wild card at 9-7, but they aren’t beating the Saints twice in three games…so, they need to beat them once and get ATL Week 16…and hope 8-8 is good enough the final wild card. We see them 7-9/8-8 and missing out somehow. The Vikings have the edge for that final wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Drew Brees (24-31 for 201 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is never a bad QB…I just don’t like his fantasy trends working with the Kamara-Ingram backfield. The last two weeks, he’s gone 1 TD/1 INT in each game. He’s been at/under 201 yards passing three-straight games.

He’s just a lesser QB on the road too…

1.6 TDs/ 0.4 INTs per game on the road.

3.3 TDs/0.2 INTs at home.

At Carolina on MNF…outdoors vs. a possibly motivated Carolina team.

-- Alvin Kamara (12-51-0, 5-36-0/6) produced 15 TDs his first 13 games of the season…he has no TDs his last 3 games. He’s overdue for ‘one of those games’.

-- Adam Humphries (4-42-0/8) had a fantasy dud, but the targeting was up…his recent trends are solid. He’s a trustworthy enough WR2.5 PPR any given week with Winston.

-- Mike Evans (4-86-0/6) extends his TD problem streak with Winston as starter…1 receiving TD in his last 17 games with Winston starting.

Evans’s targets in a game with Winston, since Winston returned as a starter the last 3 games…8-6-6. Not good for the #1 WR on the team.


College Football Metrics (CFM) 2018 subscription access ends 12/31/2018 (no matter when you joined in 2018). The 2019 subscriptions will begin/be accessible early January 2019, and you will have full access to all the 2018 and prior years of work.

So, FYI – as per usual, for the first few days of 2019, as we get set-up for the new season, CFM will be down/inaccessible and then right back up for the 2019 glorious return of another big year of scouting and dynasty work. Specific start dates in January 2019 to come.

If you need anything from CFM 2018 before the ‘dark period’, you may want to print it off, etc.

Just an FYI, so you know.


-- All Cameron Brate (2-12-2/4) does is catch TDs…from Jameis Winston.

Winston has started and finished 6 games this season…Brate has a TD in four of those 6 games – 5 TDs total. Just 1 TD when Fitzpatrick started.

-- Tre’Quan Smith’s (0-0-0/1) last 4 games…

Targets: 0-13-1-1

Catches: 0-10-0-0

I don’t think he’s fully connected with Brees just yet. Cool game that one week that no one had in him the lineup for.

-- My man Carl Nassib (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks) looked like J.J. Watt out there in this game…literally. He has that big arm brace on, and he got a sack, a TFL, a forced fumbled. He’s awesome. He’s registered 2 QB hits in a game in six of his last 8 games with 6.5 sacks.

This is a guy who Cleveland cut before the season…because Hue Jackson is a total moron.

Nassib will be a Pro Bowl player ahead someday.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes from these two teams…

The Saints have at CAR and PIT the next two weeks…OK, not great for fantasy production. No worries but maybe a slight lid on the upside. Don’t really want to use the Saints-DST unless you have limited options…they could be fine, but limited upside…with more downside risk.

The Bucs have a real ugly outlook…at BAL, at DAL – two top NFL defenses that bring pressure to give Winston fits. I’d be scared to use Evans-Godwin. Humphries may be sneaky good getting slip screens, etc.

Snap Counts of interest:

32 = Barber

31 = Jacquizz

45 = Josh Hill

28 = Ben Watson

58 = MK Thomas

41 = Tre’Quan

22 = Kirkwood

14 = Carr

13 = TommyLee Lewis


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>