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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 15 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Cowboys v. Colts

December 22, 2018 9:13 AM
December 22, 2018 9:17 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

The Colts jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead. Dallas attempted to answer back in their typical way…a slow, methodical drive and got down to a 4th & 1 at the Colts 3-yard line. They went with Zeke, the play got stuffed…the Colts seized the momentum and went on to a 23-0 victory – not even that close. Dallas struggled all game…it was more the Colts came to play.

Indy wins another big game and moves to 8-6 among a cluster of 8-6 teams looking for the final wild card spot. The Colts are in good shape…a likely win over NYG this week and probably a virtual ‘play in’ game Week 17 at Tennessee. The Colts are mostly in control of their destiny/in a good spot.

Dallas would have won the NFC East with a win, but they’re still in good shape. They need to win one game with TB and at NYG remaining on the schedule. I cannot imagine they blow it, but…

Fantasy Football Player Notes…

-- I don’t get the chance to do this often, not in 2018, but we will start with…Blake Jarwin (4-45-0/7).

Two games ago, 6 catches and 7 targets…kinda out of nowhere. I’ve been a fan. He was part of my ‘Very Deep Sleeper’ series on FantasyPros this summer. He’s been anything but a sleeper this year…until now.

The Cowboys went with the better blocking TE as their primary this season, Geoff Swaim…and then Swaim got hurt. Once Swaim was out, Jarwin still didn’t matter the following game…but the game after that (2 games ago) Jarwin has a mini-breakout with career highs in targets/catches.

I was excited about his mini-pop two games ago, but thought he’d likely not follow it up with anything meaningful…that Dallas just wasn’t going to push the TE, because they could barely make a WR viable.

Jarwin followed his 6 catch, 7 target game with another 7-target event – and, now, I’m paying attention. I’m even more excited watching it back here – Jarwin looked great. He made some really big, tough catches mid-game that helped sustain drives/convert 3rd-downs. He looks like a legit TE…a poor man’s Travis Kelce or George Kittle.

I do not fully trust Dallas-Garrett-Dak to make Jarwin a TE1 this week, but then I have to ask…but who is a sure-thing TE1 in PPR this week after the ‘big 3’? Not many TEs are getting 7+ targets in a game the past two games. The only TEs with 7 or more targets each of the last two weeks…Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, Everett…and Jarwin. You could do worse than Jarwin this week.

From my summer series, if you wish to (re)read it: https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/06/very-deep-sleeper-blake-jarwin-fantasy-football/

-- So, Marlon Mack (27-139-2, 1-10-0/1) finally woke up and had a great FF game after disappearing for about a month+.

Dallas has been good against the run this year, but Mack rolled through them with ease. Part of it a great Indy O-Line. Part of it – Dallas may be a bit overrated stopping the run. Plus, Mack looked good/fine.

Will Mack roll again Week 16…or go back into hibernation for a month, again? I don’t know. It’s not so much Mack or the opponent…it’s how HC Frank Reich doles out touches. Part of Mack’s disappearing act has been him getting pulled in the red zone a bunch for Nyheim Hines (6-19-0, 4-45-0/6), and Hines much more preferred in the passing game.

You’re kinda sucked back in Mack, but just note…this Week 15 effort has not been the norm at all the past 4-5-6 games.

-- Eric Ebron (1-8-0/3) had a disappointing Week 15, but I wouldn’t get too worked up. His trend has been great, and this game just begged for the Colts to sit on the lead and run heavy with Mack. 39 rush attempts for the Colts and just 16 passes completed.

-- Amari Cooper (4-32-0/7) didn’t find any lucky, long TD plays this week…so, he disappointed his owners. Teams are overplaying Amari more and more, baiting Dak to make that throw/play for the pick.

Week 16 vs. Tampa Bay might be a better event for Amari, but as he gets covered more – it helps the Blake Jarwin story.

-- Rookie DE Tyquan Lewis (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks) got his first two sacks of his NFL career. He’s been getting to the QB well since getting activated in Week 10, but it finally translated into sacks here.

-- The DSTs…

The Colts pitched a shutout which makes them re-hot again for fantasy usage. They’ve held opponents to 21 or fewer points in four of their last 5 games. Three of them held to 10 or fewer points.

Dallas’s defense was a hot name but back-to-back 23 points allowed games after what they did to the Saints Week 13 has cooled them. Something seems just a hair off with the entire Cowboys team, both sides of the ball. They should be fine vs. Tampa Bay this week, but it’s not a given.

-- Week 16 Outlook…

Colts facing the Giants at him…gotta love everything Colts including their DST.

Dallas hosting Tampa Bay…should be a green light for everything but The Computer is a little worried about this game for Dallas and the Cowboys’ internals. If Dallas loses this game (and Philly wins this week)…a Week 17 showdown for NFC East – and if Dallas loses that, all hell will break loose with Jerry Jones.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Pascal

41 = Hilton

37 = Ch Rogers

36 = Inman

40 = Alie-Cox

38 = Ebron

44 = Mack

29 = Hines

02 = Wilkins

43 = Jarwin

31 = Schultz

10 = Gathers


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>