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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 15 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Packers v. Bears

December 19, 2018 12:12 PM
December 19, 2018 12:10 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

The Bears fairly well dominated this game, but the final score was only 24-17 for Chicago. They jumped out to a 14-3 lead quickly and held it into the 3rd quarter, but then the Bears ‘cuteness’ caught up with them – a failed fake punt set off the Packers on a scoring drive and eventually GB tied the game 14-14 going into the 4th quarter.

In the 4th quarter, with the Bears driving near the red zone, on a 3rd & 1, Chicago sent Trubisky out wide and set Tarik Cohen at wildcat QB, where he promptly fumbled an exchange/fake hand-off to Jordan Howard…turnover/drive halted.

The Bears then clamped down on Green Bay, and just bullied their way to a 10-point lead and a late game pick of Aaron Rodgers in the end zone squashed any Packers comeback hopes.

The Bears win the game and win the NFC North…an improbable run (to the mainstream) that we were calling/screaming about since May 2018. Now, we’ll see what kind of seeding the Bears get. They will likely finish with 11-12 wins…depending upon whether they need Week 17 or not. My guess is they will have to play down to the wire to see if the Rams stumble and give them a shot at a #2 seed. In the end, we project, they will finish as the #3 seed and host Minnesota or Philadelphia in round one.

Green Bay is officially cooked for the playoffs. A team that possesses Aaron Rodgers finishes with a losing record somehow. As we’ve bellowed – the Packers are a terrible/roster aside from Rodgers…and now that Rodgers is having issues the spotlight shines on the roster issues. A giant purge is coming in 2019…and Green Bay may be rebuilding the rest of Rodgers’ career.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- A shout out to Tarik Cohen (5-21-0, 5-31-1/6)…and me…

Did you know Cohen is now the #12 ranked RB this season in PPR PPG (15.7)? We chased him last year and it blew up in our face after a few weeks into the season. We chased him heavy this year and then started giving up (redraft) after 2-3 weeks into the season when the Bears’ offense flopped around.

…and then Tarik took off on a magical ride that has brought him to being an RB1 in PPR…now, and in 2019.

Cohen is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill, production/style-wise, out there for fantasy (Curtis Samuel is the closest talent to Tyreek…and that’s far off) – Cohen changes the game in an instant. Can score on the ground, through the air, on punt returns, throws passes.

7 TDs in his last 11 games + 1 passing TD. Scored a TD this game, but also saw a red zone wheel route pass sail over his head on an open end zone shot, and nearly returned a punt for a score in this game, and caught a pass at the 5-yard line where he went out of bounds too quick…because he had the TD if he went upfield. Tarik was sniffing 2-3-4 TDs in this game. He is the Bears main weapon and he’ll continue to be with his unique ability to be a 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver same season…a legit RB and a legit WR (if he moved to that position).

I was right all along…it just took 1.2 seasons before it happened. Very pleased this end up justifying my scouting.

-- The Bears most important WR is Allen Robinson (3-54-0/7), and you’ll get sick of me saying it – but he looks terrific. Earlier this year, I talked about how bad he looked…which was true. He’s got the spring back in his legs now post-injury. Trubisky treats him like ‘the guy’…but there has been something clouding a breakout for weeks – facing Xavier Rhodes, then Chase Daniel taking over, then the weird LAR-CHI offensive wet blanket. He’s a star hiding in the corner right now…and I near guarantee he’s going to hit in coming weeks and/or in the playoffs…and in 2019.

The #1 WR on one of the three best offenses in the NFL of the near future/now. That will be worth something for FF 2019…trading like a WR2-2.5 right now.

-- Jamaal Williams (12-55-1, 4-42-0/5) is a really good/solid RB, and with Aaron Jones out he’s going to get 15-20+ touches a game and be an RB1 threat the next two weeks.

The only thing that could give me pause on that statement…if the Packers put Aaron Rodgers on the shelf and start DeShone Kizer. Then Jamaal is more an RB2.

-- I cannot figure out Trey Burton’s (4-36-1/7) projections one week to the next. I can just tell you this…

This TD was his first in 6 games.

He’s been at/under 40 yards receiving in 8 straight games.

He’s been under 30 yards in a game in seven of his last 10 games.

At the same time, Adam Shaheen (2-39-0/2) keeps creeping into the picture.

I don’t know how you trust Burton one week to the next.

-- FYI, Mitchell Trubisky (20-28 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is the #8 fantasy QB (4pts per pass TD) in PPG this season…a TD away from being #4. He’s about to pass Luck-Brees-Cam.

He’s the #2-3 PPG QB since Week 4, depending upon your scoring system.

-- Aaron Rodgers, not a top 12 QB/QB1 this season to date. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game once in his past 8 games, and three times in 14 games this season.

-- Jake Kumerow (1-5-0/2) got a little more run this game…played as many snaps as Marquez Valdes-Scantling (21) and had a moment/catch where Rodgers was giving him a thumb’s up on a play. No major moment yet, but I’m seeing a sign that there might be a WR3 output game in his future…if Rodgers is in/playing, or maybe if not – Kumerow would have worked a lot with Kizer the past two months.

-- Week 16 Outlook…

The Packers go to play the Jets in dreary NY. Weather won’t be too bad but motivations are a question mark and whether Rodgers even plays could sting Davante Adams a bit.

The Bears go to San Francisco with motivation…and the 49ers have been playing tough, but just lost their emerging CB Akhello Witherspoon last week to I.R. Should be normal everything for the Bears…and their DST should have a huge game against Nick Mullens.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Burton

27 = Shaheen

38 = Cohen

34 = Howard

64 = Adams

47 = Cobb

42 = Equanimous

21 = Kumerow

21 = MVS


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>