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2018 Week 15 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Seahawks v. 49ers

Date:
December 19, 2018 4:28 PM
December 20, 2018 12:15 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Mild shocker here…a 49ers upset in OT, 26-23. Like I’ve been saying the past few weeks…the 49ers are suddenly scrappy and are enhanced at home (4-3 at home, 0-7 on the road). Seattle didn’t play their best game but played well enough to win – it’s just the 49ers kept coming at them and Seattle is nothing all that special that they wouldn’t be apt to lose a trap game following an emotional MNF win prior to this road trip to SF and before a big SNF game with KC this week.

Seattle could’ve all but locked up a wild card with a win, but now there is some mild concern…they lose here and fall to 8-6. If they lose to KC this week…they fall to 8-7. They have Arizona Week 17, so they should win and finish 9-7 to the end – and 9-7 would take out a 9-7 Philly or 9-7 Washington. Seattle needs one more win and they’re good.

The 49ers have blown their #1 overall draft pick chance with their two-game win streak. The win streak is likely over with CHI and LAR the next two weeks.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I just want to say, once again, because I think it’s key… Dante Pettis (5-83-0/5) looks, moves, acts like a #1 WR. Every time I see Pettis play (as a starter the past few weeks), I swear I see a slightly slower footspeed Odell Beckham Jr.

I think most people Pettis as a random rookie WR in they vein of Tre’Quan Smith or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I see something more.

Pettis is amazing off the line of scrimmage. Some of the fastest feet you’ll among WRs off the snap. Great jump, good routes, good-to-great catch ability.

Think about it in 2019…Jimmy Garoppolo back and Pettis as a #1 working with a high-end QB.

Marquise Goodwin (1-7-0/1) goes back to a #2 WR…where he should always be.

Jerick McKinnon becomes an ace receiving back…the 49ers main RB. I’m more convinced that Matt Breida will be nothing more than a bit player, a 25-30% snap/touch count share with McKinnon.

Pettis-Goodwin-McKinnon is some impressive weaponry…and then add in George Kittle (3-51-0/8) who  keeps looking like he’s steps away from becoming a Travis Kelce/Zach Ertz, or better…because he’s a better athlete. In this game, Kittle was double covered a bit and had a so-so FF game, but Mullens missed Kittle streaking for another one of those long TDs with a 2-3 yard overthrow. We nearly had another 50+ yard TD for Kittle and a 100+ yard game.

If Evan Engram got the same pass game looks as Kittle, he’d break every TE record the NFL has for receiving in a season. I love Engram, but I have to love Kittle more going forward (as of today) because he has the QB and offense to work a high-level in 2019…Engram does not.

-- Jeff Wilson (7-46-0, 0-0-0/1) entered the game after a bit, as a backup to Breida and he instantly fumbled and was taken out for a while. He redeemed himself late with very tough running.

Wilson looks better than Breida to me, but it was Breida with all the touches here coming back from injury, so you have to favor Breida the ROS.

-- Chris Carson (22-119-1, 6-29-0/6) is clearly the guy for Seattle, but Mike Davis (5-21-0, 8-63-0/8) sporadically gets nice touches too.

39-33 Carson-Davis for snap counts this game.

Rashaad Penny might as well go to sleep the rest of 2018 season.

-- Doug Baldwin (4-77-2/6) looks back to being the #1 for Russell Wilson, like the old days. Baldwin had no TDs through 7 games to start the season but has 4 TDs in the last 4 games. He scored 2 TDs here, but just missed a 3rd TD by a yard overthrown by Wilson.

Tyler Lockett’s (2-45-0/2) numbers have fallen as Baldwin has risen.

Baldwin is racing to WR1.5 while Lockett is falling to WR2.5.

-- The 49ers defense has been improving for weeks, but a huge blow when CB Ahkello Witherspoon (1 tackle) went down. Witherspoon was really shutting down some WRs of late, but he’s gone for the season now.

-- Week 16 Outlook…

I love the passion and scrappiness that the 49ers are playing with but facing the Bears this week…forget it. I don’t like anything about them…not Kittle nor Pettis nor Breida.

Seattle has a better outlook facing KC, which should turn some offensive numbers. Doug Baldwin is our big upside WR of the week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Pettis

46 = Bourne

15 = Tr Taylor

07 = Goodwin

45 = Breida

12 = Wilson

39 = Carson

33 = Mk Davis

03 = McKissic

15 = Dion Jordan

00 = Rasheem Green

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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