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2018 Week 3 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Broncos v. Ravens

Date:
September 27, 2018 11:34 PM
September 28, 2018 7:25 AM

Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Rain steady through this game and effected the play results some. It felt like two evenly matched squads for the both part with the Ravens having the sloppy QB and better coaching, and home field, and they eventually just pulled away.

The Ravens kinda controlled this game start-to-finish, considering they had a punt blocked to start the game which led to an easy score right after. Down 7-0 the Ravens beat Denver 27-7 the rest of the way. Any time the Broncos tried to get back in felt like Case Keenum wasn’t going to get them there and that’s about what happened – Keenum with a silly red zone pick with 9+ minutes left shut the door on this one.

Fantasy Player Analysis…

-- I don’t know when, it might not be until 2019 under a new head coach, but Royce Freeman (13-53-1, 1-5-0/1) is going to be a top 5-type rusher in the NFL. He’s a beautiful looking runner of the ball.

However, that’s a dynasty message more than a redraft. It’s not a Week 4 message. Vance Joseph is in love with Phillip Lindsay (4-20-0, 0-0-0/2) at the moment.

Here’s how I know that…

Here’s the RBs in the game the first 10 offensive plays for Denver in this game:

Freeman

Freeman

Lindsay

Lindsay

Lindsay

Lindsay

Booker (he still has a thing for Booker too)

Booker

Booker

Freeman

Lindsay might have led the team in touches again here, but he got tossed in the 2nd quarter for throwing a punch. Lindsay is the guy right now, but that’s fleeting I think. Not sure if it fleets in 1-2-3 weeks or 5-6-7. I just know it’s going to happen. Not that Lindsay will go away…just that Freeman will slowly just become ‘the guy’ the run game is built on. Lindsay becomes a complimentary RB.

-- On the other side, the Ravens RB situation makes little fantasy sense…

Alex Collins (18-68-1, 3-6-0/4) is the ‘big’ back, and then you see the smaller Javorius Allen (6-7-1, 3-19-1/4), and his 2.0 yards per carry this season, come in and take goal line work…and score. Allen has 4 TDs this season already.

Allen will matter in a split all year (unless Dixon returns to muddy it up more). He’s the for sure PPR option because Collins can’t catch well. Probably why he’s in a lot in the red zone.

-- Courtland Sutton (2-37-0/3) is showing mini-flashes of what’s to come…showing some signs that Keenum is going to him in time of trouble/needing something to happen – like a little bit of a fling up to him to let him come down with it type of work.

I don’t see Sutton dominating/comfortable yet. I don’t see Keenum fully giving over to it. It’s going to be a while yet.

-- Speaking of Case Keenum (22-34 for 192 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)…last two games: 207.0 yards, 0.0 TDs/1.0 INT per game. He’s part of the Sutton emerging delay. Might not be until 2019+ for Sutton. The Broncos have butchered their QB situation for a couple of years now.

-- With all the fantasy TE pain out there, the ‘Hayden Hurst returns to practice’ has been a siren call for some to wonder -- with Evan Engram down and O.J. Howard on a BYE next week…should you make a move for Hurst for Week 5?

I get it, but I don’t think Hurst will be ready at all this week. And then he has to get re-integrated (as a rookie) with Joe Flacco, and get past the other baker’s dozen TEs the Ravens have. I think Hurst takes a few weeks if he even ‘hits’.

I only mentioned him as a deep-sleeper pick up the last two weeks for those super desperate and wanting to get in on him ahead. If you got Goedert-Njoku-Vance McDonald as options in redraft…you’re fine for a week(s). Hurst isn’t walking in and going to be a force. He’ll be spotty at first and then might be a fringe TE1 as weeks go on. Not likely in Week 5…unless you’re desperate.

-- John Brown (5-86-0/9), as much as I’m not a fan, seems to be ‘that guy’ for the Ravens.

9 targets in this game, 10 targets last week with 89.0 yards per game the last two games. I get scared of Flacco + deep ball and I get scared of Brown + health, but he’s like the Ravens’ DeSean Jackson – white hot for a few weeks and then goes into hiding with an ankle issue for several weeks.

Right now, he’s working. Good for leagues with big play bonuses as a WR3/flex.

-- I always believe the Ravens-DST is overrated…great against the weak, and then popped by the strong. Smushed McCarron-Keenum this season, punched in the gut by Dalton Week 2. Big Ben this week is death. Their schedule ahead is a problem…

Ben-Mayfield-Mariota-Brees-Cam-Ben-BYE…two Ben’s and a Brees the next five games…no, thanks.

-- Ravens rookie LB Kenny Young (10 tackles, 1 TFL) has gone from cute story getting some PT, to 10 tackles this week after 7 last week. 10 tackles this game playing 65% of the snaps. He’s not slowing down…

-- Rookie Bradley Chubb (2 tackles, 1 sack) had a great pass rush/sack early in this game then I didn’t see much after that. 2.7 tackles and 0.5 sacks per game so far this season. He looks good. His numbers are ‘OK’.

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Jav. Allen

35 = Collins

38 = Boyle

37 = Maxx Williams

27 = Mark Andrews

60 = Sanders

54 = Dem Thomas

53 = Sutton

29 = Royce Freeman

26 = D Booker

11 = Lindsay

IDPs:

50 = Chubb

38 = Jewell

35 = Wormley

32 = Gotsis

31 = Yiadom

12 = Bowser

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>