ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty/fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2018 Week 3 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Cowboys v. Seahawks

September 27, 2018 2:27 PM
September 27, 2018 5:27 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Seattle had this game well in hand throughout. Up 14-3 at the half, up 24-6 in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys floundered to try to put a passing game together to mount a comeback. 24-13, mercifully Seattle won an unimpressive game played by two unimpressive teams.

These are two similar teams…good, mobile QBs behind a troublesome O-Line (Dallas’s all of a sudden) but led by the team’s desire to force the running game at all costs. Athletic, young defenses that make too many mistakes to be serious playoff teams.

Dallas’s problem on defense was glaring here…looked fine with Sean Lee in, the second he’s gone, like in all other year’s past, they collapse. It’s as if a switch is thrown – because Lee is literally the defensive coordinator on top of everything else he does. Dallas is headed for a crash without him and they won’t be able to recover from it when he returns because this offense is curling up in a ball and dying.

Rejoice Dallas fans! The Jason Garrett era is coming to an end soon it looks like.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Pete Carroll’s prayers have been answered…he got to run Chris Carson (32-102-1, 2-22-0/2) 32 times in a victory. I think he lives for that. 3.2 yards per carry makes Carroll’s toes curl.

This push of Carson is going to hold Seattle back. He’s just not a #1 RB. He’s nice guy to have for emergency but this push as ‘main carry’ just holds the Seattle offense down even further – bad O-Line and then a ‘nothing’ running game.

This game emboldens Carroll on Carson…making Arizona an interesting upset pick this week.

Rashaad Penny (3-5-0) shows all the zip in this backfield, I’m not sure what Carroll has against him…or what he sees in Carson…or why they took Penny with a #1 pick.

-- Two games in a row for Russell Wilson (16-26 for 192 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) under 230 yards passing. This is Wilson – lower yardage tallies (because they want to run smashmouth) but nice TDs (2.33 passing TDs per game so far this season) because Wilson is so talented.

Why they don’t build this offense around Wilson is mostly what I have against Carroll. One of the great QB talents of this era and he’s trying to play smashmouth football. Pete Carroll and Mike McCarthy will never be recognized for all the opportunity lost with their ridiculous attempts to minimize generational QBs in their possession. A lot of old school coaches are meatheads who love ‘smashmouth football’ and think ‘passing is for sissies’.

And we also have that in Dallas.

Not that Ezekiel Elliott (16-127-0, 3-11-0/8) should be a focal point but not to the degree that Dallas has no passing game, unrecognizable receiving weapons, and rotational WRs and TEs. I guess you can’t be the second lowest scoring team in football without trying. The bottom 10 PPG teams in the NFL right now is a ‘who’s who’ of ‘smashmouth’ coaches and their beloved run games.

In breaking news, Ryan Fitzpatrick just threw for another 400+ yard game.

In other news, Dak Prescott has Geoff Swaim leading the team in receiving yards in this game with 47.

-- Tyler Lockett (4-77-1/6) has caught a TD pass in every game this season. However, the targets and yardage is not befitting a #1 WR. Lockett is not a #1 WR. He’s been thrust into it, in a sense, with Doug Baldwin out and he’s caught TD passes…which is good, but there has been no real ‘#1” work. The targeting is not “#1”. I think Lockett will virtually disappear into WR3-4 land the moment Baldwin is cleared back onto the field.

I’d be selling Lockett all this week for RB needs or in a package of stuff. He’s not scoring 16 TDs this season. I doubt he scores 10 TDs, even with 3 TDs in the bank.

-- Geoff Swaim (5-47-0/7) led all Cowboys in targets this game, if that tells you about the current sad state of affairs for Dallas. He also led all Seattle receivers, if that tells you about their problems.

I watched Swaim at work. There’s nothing here to get excited about for fantasy. I knew there wasn’t anyway, but to confirm…nothing.

-- What to do with my beloved, emerging Dallas-DST now that Sean Lee (11 tackles,. 0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs) is out? You throw them in the trash where they belong. Nice Week 1 holding Carolina to 16 points. Break out Week 2 swarming Eli Manning. Did fine here until Lee went out and then they fell apart. They will fall apart without him the next few weeks, so just leave…it’s about to get ugly.

The FFM Lineup Optimizer for Daily Leagues is now available – get lineup configurations/player suggestions instantly. Our program works to show the most points for your salary cap spend based upon FFM weekly projections data. Change a player, the Optimizer instantly reacts with the best lineup around that player(s) in or out. See team stacks at the push of a button. See all the players ranked by ‘value’ per spend by position. Learn more here: https://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.net/rc-blog/ffm-lineup-optimizer-for-daily-leagues-now-available

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Carson

10 = Penny

42 = Beasley

39 = Hurns

27 = D Thompson

25 = Gallup

19 = Tavon Austin

39 = Dissly

35 = Vannett

55 = Swaim

12 = Jarwin

05 = Gathers


66 = Xavier Woods

29 = Rasheem Green

19 = Dion Jordan


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>