ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 3 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Packers v. Redskins

Date:
September 28, 2018 10:09 AM
September 28, 2018 5:32 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I would agree that Washington has as good/the better team overall compared to Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers the great equalizer in all things…but I’m not running off a cliff yet on Washington because of this victory. They beat sad Arizona opening day. They were manhandled by the Colts in Washington Week 2. They won here, but it was played in intermittent/constant drizzle-rain and that affected the play to some degree.

Right off the bat, Washington hit on a 40+ yard TD pass that set the tempo for this game… Alex Smith is a terrible deep passer, but he flung a pass deep towards the end zone…it was under-thrown, the safety turned the wrong way and when he tried to recover the receiver made a diving catch on the duck, then two defenders ran into each other trying to touch him down…the receiver got up and rolled into the end zone for a score. It was that kind of day for Green Bay.

On another drive, a few series later…Green Bay halted the Redskins several times only to give Washington fresh life with constant, sometimes sketchy penalties called against them. This was the game where Clay Matthews got called for a ridiculous penalty on a sack…a huge game momentum changer later in the comeback effort. Green Bay had key drops in the rain all day and a late fumble on the slippery track to complete their defeat.

I feel like if this game was played on a perfect 70-degree day the Packers would have dropped 30+ in a victory. That’s just me.

Fantasy Player Analysis…

-- So glad I made a big to-do to trade for Chris Thompson (6-17-0, 1-0-0/2) for his worse production game in like three seasons. What happened?

Well, the Redskins got up quick on the back of a few deep passes and a lot of penalties. Alex Smith only completed 12 passes all day. I think Washington got up 14-0 in the rain and decided to play it safe and run the ball, which they did 35 times for 166 yards.

Thompson is a pass game weapon and I think Washington reeled in/limited the throws, plus attacked deep a few times on the young GB secondary. It was enough for the win but not a great day for CT. I still like Thompson for PPR, a lot, and I’ll buy low this week.

-- The mainstream loves them some Aaron Jones (6-42-0, 1-5-0/1). He had a moment or two last season. Displayed nothing special on tape, to me. Some rando Packers coach is talking about how explosive Jones is and that’s ‘news’ to get THEM excited. Now we get the inevitable call that Jones is a sleeper to takeover the GB backfield. I get it. I fell for it too this offseason, for a bit.

Jones is an OK running back talent. He works if you shove him a lot of touches, just like Jamaal Williams has done well with big touch counts. Just like Ty Montgomery has. The problem for Jones, FF-wise, is the Packers go RBBC/’hot hand’. So, you’re left guessing ‘who’s the guy’ every week. Williams gets the first preference, but anything can happen once they start rotating.

I studied Aaron Jones this summer in our ‘Rewind’ series. I filed that lengthy report you can go out and look at. I think he’s fine, but overrated – and I don’t like this RBBC with three talented RBs trying to get over with Aaron Rodgers taking most of the fantasy juice anyways.

-- Randall Cobb (4-22-0/11) had a terrible game. He didn’t play/act terrible, but the circumstances of this game were terrible for him. An early drop on a hot pass on a wet ball that sailed through his gloves. A diving TD effort, soon after, he couldn’t make the grab on. Another diving catch, later, of an off-target pass for a first down that slipped out and was overturned to not-a-catch. He was fighting a gang tackle late when a defender tore the ball loose for a fumble effectively ending the Packers’ hopes.

Just note…Rodgers was looking for him/needing him all game – he led the team with 11 targets. This wasn’t a normal performance by Cobb, just a bad day exasperated by the wet conditions. He still needed to make plays, but he didn’t this day. I don’t think he’s lost it or in trouble. Just a bad game in the rain.

-- Are we getting into watered-down Aaron Rodgers (27-44 for 265 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) territory…because of his injury? Limitations on what he can do…and, thus, limitations on his fantasy numbers.

Three games in a row this season under 300 yards passing, but not because he’s not effective. 6 TDs/0 INTs this season. He’s been Aaron The Great mostly, but the numbers are just a tick off…not as high-flying as the Big Ben’s, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s, etc.

This week will be a test. Rodgers should drop 300+ and 3+ TDs against a weak Buffalo team. Playing at Green Bay, needing a win.

If Rodgers struggles a hair, and/or the Packers get up quick and go into prevent mode with a bunch of handoffs…will Rodgers just have another ‘good’ fantasy game? We’ll see Sunday if they step on the accelerator and stay on it versus the Bills or hit the brakes the moment they can.

-- I guess Adrian Peterson (19-120-2) is ageless. He’s running with authority and effectiveness. I would have, and did, bet against it -- but he looks fine. Not the old AP, but certainly good enough to start in the NFL.

-- Jonathan Allen (5 tackles, 2.0 sacks) woke up with some IDP numbers for the first time this season. The 1st-round pick last season is playing solid ball but added numbers to it this week. Not sure he’s on the verge of a break or just a good game.

-- Redskins CB Quinton Dunbar (6 tackles) is growing in his new starting role…5.0 tackles per game this season and 1.6 PDs as well with one INT.

-- Montae Nicholson (8 tackles) is averaging 6.7 tackles and 1.0 PDs per game as the Redskins starting safety this season.

-- Is the Redskins-DST a sleeper happening before our eyes? I’ve hinted this group could be all summer. Today, I’m still not sure they’ve moved off of ‘sleeper’ status towards concrete DST1.

The evidence is mounting in their favor…#1 in the NFL in PPG allowed. #2 in yards per game allowed. However, they destroyed the Arizona offense Week 1, which is the worst offense in the NFL. They couldn’t handle/got worked by a very limited Colts offense in Week 2. Green Bay had more issues with the rain than the Redskins defense here.

Take out the Arizona charity event Week 1 and they not quite as impressive, but still really good (statistically).

The schedule ahead is an issue for a bit: BYE-Brees-Cam-Dak-Eli-Ryan-Fitz/Winston. Weeks 4-5-6 of BYE-Brees-Cam is a no-go, but proving ground to see if it’s ‘game on’ after that. Possibly useful the rest of 2018, starting Week 7…after we see how we all feel through Week 6.

Snap Counts of Interest…

32 = Peterson

25 = Thompson

06 = Bibbs

30 = Jamaal Williams

20 = Ty Montgomery

17 = Aaron Jones

IDPs:

69 = Montae Nicholson

24 = Reggie Gilbert

08 = Oren Burks

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>