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2018 Week 3 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Raiders v. Dolphins

Date:
September 26, 2018 10:18 PM
September 26, 2018 10:29 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game was 7-0 right away off a big catch and run pass to Jordy Nelson setting up a TD a few plays later. Same thing on the next Raiders series…big catch and run by Jordy, this time the Raiders got stuffed on 4th & goal from the 1-yard line and missed a chance to really blow this open.

By halftime, the Raiders led 10-7. Two mediocre teams, at best, kinda floundering around to find some offense for a half. It looked like the Raiders day, though. Oakland pushed ahead 17-7 with 3+ minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

Miami would then score 21 points in the next 18 minutes of play, the final two scores 50+ yarders and the Dolphins once again escaped with a victory.

Oakland has a nothing offense with an enthusiastic, under-talented defense – they are little threat to opponents because they have no playmakers on either side of the ball.

Miami has scrapped victories against the Titans, Jets, Raiders…not a murder’s row of opponents – they’re lucky not to be 1-2/0-3. Instead they are 3-0 going to New England with a chance to kill off the boogeyman and take a 3-game lead over the Pats in the AFC East.

Anyone betting the Patriots won’t win that by 20+? Which means Dolphins win by 20+…

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Jordy Nelson (6-173-1/8) had a monster game…the game I had been waiting for. He is the team’s #1 WR over Amari. On this, I have been vindicated. But before you get too FF-excited…

He had a 61 yarder right off the bat…left alone in coverage and nice catch and run, but finally tackled a few yards short of paydirt. Same thing next series, almost forgotten in coverage by the safety and off to the races again and tackled just short again.

Two things…

1) After what looked like two coverage gaffes, Jordy had 4 catches for 46 yards the rest of the game. He didn’t dominate…he just had two free/big plays early.

2) He was caught from behind on both his big plays. Not that he’s slow, but with 5+ yard leads on the run defenders caught up to him in the foot race.

Aside from two free plays, Jordy didn’t look anything special (he was fine/good) because this offense doesn’t look anything special. I’d be cautiously optimistic from here. I wasn’t blown away with what I saw here. Love the stat line, but it was deceiving. This is a bad passing game.

Oh, and just to note – Amari Cooper (2-17-0/5) still stinks. You’re welcome.

-- Jakeem Grant (2-70-2/3) scored two sweet TDs. One of one of those jet sweeps where the QB pushes/shoves/drops it forward to them coming across and the runner does all the work, BUT it’s considered a TD pass. His other TD was a razzle dazzle Albert Wilson (1-1 for 52 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-74-1/2) fake end around then wide-open toss to Grant.

Grant is a playmaker…but had just 3 targets in this game, one essentially a run, the other a WR pass. He’s not a real part of the game plan. 9 snaps played.

Albert Wilson the same…2 targets? 10 snaps played.

DeVante Parker (2-40-0/3) returned and got two targets as well, and he really had little impact. 30+ snaps played.

Ryan Tannehill had 289 yards passing and 3 TDs/0 INT, but two TDs were jet sweeps by WRs who caught the hot potato drop as they came across. I’m not buying any Tannehill uprising with his 7 TDs/2 INTs and 3-0 start. Lucky plays accredited to him against so-so opponents.

-- The Dolphins had no run game at all…41 yards rushing on 14 carries.

Kenyan Drake (5-3-0, 2-7-0/4) had a fantasy time bomb game. I don’t think anything is wrong, it’s just the Dolphins has nowhere to run. I guess the Raiders tried to make Tannehill beat them…and he did, late, with jet sweep dump passes.

Frank Gore (6-12-0) did not steal the job or anything.

It was just a bad game all the way around. Drake is an RB2, not an RB1 or RB3.

-- Mike Gesicki (3-31-0/3) got as many/more targets than anyone except Kenny Stills (5 targets). He looked like his usual self…gangly, not really athletic. It’s worth noting he got good targets, but he’s still not showing any ‘wow factor’.

-- Either Derek Carr (27-39 for 345 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) was a fraud as a franchise QB or he’s playing for terrible coaches…or both.

2 TDs/5 INTs in an 0-3 start this season.

6 TDs/10 INTs in his last 7 games…with an 0-7 record.

18 TDs/18 INTs in his last 16 games.

1 of fewer TD passes in 13 of his last 16 games.

This is why you can’t get too excited about Jordy here.

-- Kiko Alonso (15 tackles) has back-to-back games with 13 or more tackles. He’s averaging 11.33 tackles per game this season.

-- Rookie IDP Jerome Baker (9 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2.0 TFLs) always impresses me with his fluid. Natural movement to the ball. I didn’t see it with him in college, but I see it now.

-- Say what you want…just 3.5 yards per carry in a very dull Oakland offense, but Marshawn Lynch (19-64-1) has rushed for a TD in every game so far this year.

Don’t you think the Raiders might be a loss or two away from trading both Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin? Like, why are they keeping them if this season is lost (we’ll ask in 2-3 weeks). I could see Lynch traded and Martin playing out the string as the starter weeks from now…just a theory based on nothing.

If only Chris Warren was healthy…

-- The Miami-DST has allowed 2 TDs/7 INTs to their opponents, which is awesome, but it was against Gabbert-Keenum-Carr. The day of reckoning is coming.  

Snap Counts of Interest:

40 = Stills

33 = Parker (are you kidding me?)

31 = Amendola

10 = Wilson

09 = Grant

42 = Lynch

20 = Richard

13 = Martin

28 = Gesicki

14 = Derby

IDPs

46 = Jerome Baker

19 = Arden Key

17 = Erik Harris

01 = Karl Joseph

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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