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2018 Week 4 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: 49ers v. Chargers

Date:
October 5, 2018 12:14 PM
October 5, 2018 12:25 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I thought this was one of the best bets of the Week 4…Chargers (-9.5) at home facing a wounded, lacking 49ers team. On Sunday, in a blink, it was 14-0 Niners to start. A quick pick-six from Philip Rivers and it rolled downhill from there.

The Chargers did the logical thing…shrugged that off and took control of the lesser 49ers – pulling ahead 26-17 late in the 3rd quarter, and it should’ve been 40+ to 17, but then George Kittle caught & ran for an 82-yard TD and the 49ers were back in it and scrapped to the finish -- the Chargers got lucky to hold off the inferior 49ers in the end.

I framed all that as ‘the Chargers superior/Niners inferior’…SF being weak/injured/short-handed is true. I’m not so sure the Chargers can be called ‘superior’. They were about as sloppy as a team could be, and kinda have been all year. Or in other words…’typical Chargers’.

The Chargers schedule is begging them to go 9-7 and get people excited, per usual, but I see an average team with a stiff game plan and no real play-makers to fear. Gordon-Allen-Gates are not to be feared. They’re solid…but not Super Bowl bound.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let’s review C.J. Beathard’s (23-37 for 298 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 7-19-0) first start of 2018…

As expected… Solid-ish, a backup level talent. Isn’t terrible, isn’t great. Too many forced throws into windows that aren’t there. He’s not an embarrassment, but he is one to target with your opposing DST because he will throw picks…6 TDs/8 INTs in his career. 5 TDs/7 INTs in his last 5 starts.

He also will run, he’s sneaky fast…7 rushes in this game. 3 rushing TDs his last 6 starts.

-- Because CJB is a low-volume producer…Marquise Goodwin (2-24-0/4, 1-4-0) is pushing more of a WR3 status than a WR2. I’ve discussed wanting to hold for a week or two just to see what CJB 2018 + Goodwin as #1 WR really equals, but it doesn’t look great and Goodwin is hurt again and doesn’t seem to have that ‘pop’.

I’m starting to move on to more exciting/upside WRs in various places. Not a must hold in redraft, depending upon your options.

The WR who Beathard seems to have more relationship with and would make sense working together 2nd-team is Kendrick Bourne (3-34-1/4). Also, Bourne is a fantastic technician of a WR. He should be starting for several teams in the NFL right now.

If Goodwin is out this week – Bourne is a decent sleeper.

-- I’m done fighting it…I don’t know how Matt Breida (9-39-0, 3-32-0/3) has become a ‘lead’ RB, but he is. He’s getting what I wish Tarik Cohen would get…10+ carries a game as a potential game-breaker on any touch. Breida is getting this workload+, even though I want to argue that technically he shouldn’t…it’s just my wine snob bias on RB talent. It is what it is…Alfred Morris (4-14-0) is limited and Breida is all they got until further notice.

Breida may be 11 carries that go for yards such as: 0-1-0-2-3-1-37-1-0-2-20, but you could do worse than 60-70+ yards rushing and some targets…with the threat he pops one.

-- Keenan Allen (7-63-0/10) is back to his old tricks…lots of catches/targets but so-so yards and no TDs. Last season, he went the first 10 games with 1 TD and a bunch of 40-50-60 yard games and then blew it out against weaker opponents late and had a great overall season…but it was the tale of two seasons.

Allen is setting up for such an event again…a weak stretch that he’ll pop out for a few strong games. But who knows when?

Allen has 8 TDs in his last 25 regular season games.

-- Kyzir White had knee surgery and should return Week 7-8. With White out, Jatavis Brown (9 tackles, 1 PD) did his normal thing when given the full game – big IDP results.

We got 1-2 more weeks of Jatavis goodness.

-- Note…Caleb Sturgis (3/4 FG, 0/2 XP) missed 2 XPs and an FG. In this game coverage they showed him missing everything in pregame.

He’s 2 of his last 5 XPs.

He’s 7 of 9 on FGs this season.

He’s not one you want to use as a fill-in on BYE weeks.

-- The LAC-DST?

20 or more points allowed every game this year. #20 peas defense. #22 in sacks. #7 in picks (5).

OAK-CLE-TEN next 3 weeks is OK, not awesome.

Week 8 BYE

Weeks 9-12 Joey Bosa should be back for SEA-OAK-DEN-ARI…that could be a decent stretch.

Weeks 13-16 PIT-CIN-KC-BAL is rough.

Wobbly without Bosa, not sure how much better it gets when he returns.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Virgil Green

23 = Gates

49 = Gordon

23 = Ekeler

59 = Jatavis Brown (98%)

31 = Kyle Emmanuel

38 = Breida

14 = Morris

49 = Garcon

37 = Goodwin

31 = Tr Taylor

25 = Bourne

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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