ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 4 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Bills v. Packers

Date:
October 5, 2018 9:02 AM
October 5, 2018 9:19 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

It’s official…the Buffalo Bills are the worst team in the NFL. Again, I remind – that win against Minnesota was a total fluke. Takeaway the Vikings Bizarro world game…and the Bills have been outscored 90 to 23 this season in their three losses. They were shutout by a not great Packers defense in this one.

I say all that to set the scene of this following statement – the Green Bay Packers may be the most overrated football team in the NFL. Should’ve lost to Chicago opening week, when the Bears hadn’t found their offensive religion yet. Won/was the better team but blew Week 2 vs. MIN and got a tie. They were handled by Washington Week 3. Of course, they won this gift here. Minus the Buffalo gift, the Packers were exactly 3 points away from losing their first 3 games of the season.

Hosting the bad Bills at home should be the kinda game where the Packers drop 30+ and are clicking on all cylinders. Instead, they were sloppy and out of sync. Fortunately, the Bills are so bad it wasn’t as noticeable. If my calculations are correct, the Packers are going to get drop kicked by the Lions this week.

If the Packers are lucky they’ll go 7-9 and finally remove Mike McCarthy and staff (except Mike Pettine) and go down a fresh road.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Aaron Rodgers (22-40 for 298 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has not been ‘Aaron Rodgers’ this season. He’s been OK, but not ‘Aaron Rodgers’. No 300+ yard passing games this season. 1.75 passing TDs per game is not like him. If the season ended today, he’d have his lowest Comp. Pct. of his career (63.5%).

He’s got the knee issue…and that’s gotta be affecting him.

Also hurting him, besides Mike McCarthy, are his ‘weapons’. Adams-Cobb-Allison is not a fearful trio. Adams is great but not great-great like the greats. He’s very good. Cobb is a below average slot WR. Geronimo Allison (6-80-0/11) wouldn’t start for most NFL teams.

In addition, they have no running game. No great usage of RBs in the passing game and Jimmy Graham (3-21-0/6) runs around the field like he has a load of bricks in his diaper.

At least, Rodgers is used to these guys…but, now, Cobb has a hamstring that will be an issue for weeks. Allison has a concussion. Adams is banged up. The Packers drafted three WRs and none of them look NFL ready…but some will be playing this week.

The Lions have the #2 pass defense in the NFL (by yards).

None of this is good for an Aaron Rodgers bounce back week.

-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1-38-0/3) might have a decent week if Allison is out, but he’s in over his head some as a rushed starter. He’s not that talented…it’s whatever Rodgers can make of him.

-- If I own Randall Cobb (and I do, a bunch), and I see better option and/or BYE week desperations set in -- I might head for the hills. He’ll miss Week 5 and likely Week 6. BYE Week 7…he’s back Week 8 maybe. He works for FF because of the Rodgers connection, so you want that…but you’ll have to wait to Week 8 for it…and if you wait a week to see if he’s ‘OK’ – then we’re into Week 9.

 -- Everyone is Aaron Jones (11-65-1, 1-17-0/1) loco. I get it, he has an occasional big play when no Packers RB does anything, but Jones reeled off a 30-yard run here on his first carry and then 10 carries for 30 yards (3.0 ypc) otherwise…which is the Aaron Jones I know. Good with a wide-open hole and struggles otherwise because he’s not a legit between-the-tackles RB.

Still…he’s the guy to have, probably, because nothing else is working. Jones has love of the masses…which I try to sell into.

-- Ty Montgomery (2-56-0/3) MIGHT maybe be a sleeper RB this week. If the Packers are down two WRs…Montgomery may play the slot (former WR) or work as a receiver from the backfield. The past two weeks…4.0 rec. for 52.5 yards per game.

-- Do I need say anymore on Josh Allen (16-33 for 151 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs)? I mean, this was an easy one. YEAH…he jumped over a tackler two weeks ago. The sad Bills fans are actually making t-shirts of that jump. AND one guy got a tattoo of a leaping Allen.

I wonder if he’ll sue the NFL for fraud when Allen is revealed to be a failure/a scouting fraud?

The guy has no accuracy or instinct for the position. A cannon arm and nifty-ish feet, but a sad QB. I can’t even say he has no weapons because whatever he’s throwing at is usually a ball thrown 30 feet over their heads…or into the defender’s arms.

I’m not going to waste carpal tunnel time on him. He’s what I said/scouted he was. He is THEE QB to want your DST to face. The Jets-DST faces Allen Weeks 10 and 14, and the Pats-DST Weeks 8 and 16. FYI

53.3% Comp. Pct. with 2 TDs/4 INTs so far this season.

-- LeSean McCoy (5-24-0, 3-13-0/6) is starting to get dropped in several redraft leagues, and for good reason – he’s been fading going back to last season and he’s been a disaster this season. He’s rushed for 28.3 yards, has 13.7 yards receiving per game. No TDs, but a solid 4.3 receptions per game.

He’s been dealing with the rib injury is part of his issue. As bad as he’s been, on waivers…I might take a stab. He’s the only thing the Bills have, and it ain’t much. When healthy you know he gets touches.

-- A couple Packers’ IDPs sacked Allen, and are worth mentioning…

Preseason pass rush stud Reggie Gilbert (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 TFL) got his first full sack of the season and a season high 4 tackles. 0.5 sacks per game the past 3 games.

Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 3.0 sacks) came out of nowhere for 3 sacks in this game. He can get to the QB too as an OLB sneak attack guy. I don’t think this is the beginning of a shock sack tally for him this season…just a good game against a bad QB. However, he has shown this play-making gift in the last couple preseasons. I don’t write him off either.

Snap Counts of Interest:

76 = D. Adams

56 = Allison

54 = Valdes-Scantling

11 = J’Mon Moore

36 = McCoy

22 = Ivory

29 = Aaron Jones

28 = Jm. Williams

20 = Montgomery

IDPs…

26 = Fackrell

25 = Gilbert

25 = Harrison Phillips

02 = Siran Neal

00 = Josh Jones

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>