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2018 Week 4 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Jets v. Jags

Date:
October 3, 2018 10:04 AM
October 3, 2018 10:03 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

There was nothing extraordinary about this game. It went about the exact way you would expect it might…

The Jets ‘tried hard’ but couldn’t do much as the Jags just bullied them around. This game was a little closer than the final score, but the right team won. The Jets had the ball with 5+ minutes left down 25-12 and Quincy Enunwa made a tremendous breaking tackles effort for a 39-yard play to make this a ball game…but it came back on a penalty and that put a bullet in the Jets.

Also, as expected, Leonard Fournette’s hamstring…again.

*NOTE -- FFM Optimizer subscribers. FFM-O is working off the FFM App now. There was an App access issue for some last week but I've been told it is fixed for all. Safari users, still some issues with compatibility we're working on but all PC (Chrome, etc.), smartphone browsers (non-safari) still fine...and now off our App is all-good.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- We have to start with Quincy Enunwa (4-66-0/8).

Listen up (grabbing you by the shirt collar and shaking you) – Quincy Enunwa is terrific. I mean get your head right…understand you have a PPR starting WR for fantasy, a WR1.5 with WR1 possibilities here. You look over your roster see Enunwa (on the bench) and go…”Man, I could use some depth or I can trade Enunwa in a deal for something else…or what if I drop Enunwa for X half-baked RB?” STOP.

You do not do anything with Enunwa but get ready to ride a WR1.5 PPR wave. He’s one of 20 best WRs in the NFL. He’s working the slot making him a SUPREME mismatch as he’s a 220-pound bully tailback after the catch. He is Sam Darnold’s preferred WR with the #2 nowhere in sight…Darnold is speaking these words, it’s not just me making statements.

Enunwa lost that 39-yard play late…or he has 100+ yards in this game VERSUS the Jags. He also couldn’t hang on to a leaping/diving grab for 20+ yards on a 4th & 1.

His two longest plays (one called back), he broke like 4 tackles on each play…short crosser and go and literally trucking people and jerking himself out of clean tackles and continuing to roll.

There may be no more perfect ‘buy low’ in fantasy than Enunwa. An every week starter for you who is on almost everyone’s bench and is being cut in some leagues. If you don’t have Enunwa on your team this week via whatever…already had him because you listened to me weeks ago (or the preseason) or you grabbed him off waivers or you make a trade, whatever…you gotta get him or you’re blowing a gift of an opportunity.

-- What to do with Leonard Fournette’s (11-30-0, 1-5-0/1) hamstring. All you can do is wait, if you can. People want to get cute with Josh Gordon, Greg Olsen, Hayden Hurst, Le’Veon Bell…grabbing them early, sitting on them for THE DAY to come. When it comes to Fournette, we’re all like…’he’s killing me’. With Bell it’s ‘boy, when he comes back…’

Fournette is an RB1 when he’s ready. He’s been out for weeks with his hamstring. He came back this game, and the Jags gave him the ball 12 times in his 24 snaps played.

You respect Josh Gordon more. You respect Greg Olsen more. If Fournette sprained his knee you’d be happier. Hamstring…well, he’s a puss. Why do we think this way about Fournette? Too emotionally vested. Jilted by a #1 pick player you want to play. I get it. It is what it is. You wait. You stash him on the back-end of the roster and wait. You have to have a pretty salty deal to move him…because mostly it’s people bottom fishing you.

In dynasty, you ‘buy low’ not ‘sell mad’ and then hope Mike Davis soothes your always-perceived RB wounds in Week 5. This is the life with RBs. Get used to it.

My suspicion is Fournette will be out for minimum of two weeks, possibly until after their Week 9 BYE. Unless the season is getting away and you need this roster spot, I sit and wait…as painful as it is. He’s worth it. Hopefully, James Conner (when Bell returns, if Bell returns) is your bridge to returning Fournette.

I guess T.J. Yeldon (18-52-1, 3-48-1/3) is the guy to own, and if I’m fantasy desperate…sure, that’s where I am going. He’s going to get touches, but note he almost always flops as the Fournette replacement. He’s always better as the LF replacement in-game and almost always a let down when he starts on purpose (see: last time/Week 3).

Corey Grant (1-5-0, 2-12-0/3) had his chance to make this a split/Grant-as-lead Week 3 but the Jags got bullied by the Titans defense, so did Yeldon until very late. Grant has a chance to make a play when Yeldon doesn’t and become the shock player from this backfield in a given week. Grant has a chance…but he usually never capitalizes when you need it for fantasy.

-- Sam Darnold (17-34 for 167 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is 32-of-65 (49.2%) the past two weeks passing for 168.0 yards per game.

I’m as proud of this call as I am the Goff-Trubisky magic of last week.

After Week 1, you all thought I had lost it. Oh, ye of little faith.

Darnold is the guy, after Josh Allen, to target with your opposing streaming DST. They are playing skittish and will throw passes into triple and quadruple coverage under any duress.

-- I love Keelan Cole (2-15-0/3), and he’s an Antonio Brown waiting to happen but I’m smart enough to realize it’s never going to happen in Jacksonville on purpose. At least, I’m seeing no signs of it. There will be sweet games, but there will be more games like this one…not befitting of a true #1 WR.

Blake Bortles is a bad QB, but he’s an opportunist. He’ll go with whatever is presented. He’s not good enough to make something work on purpose consistently. Cole is a random WR3/Flex week-to-week.

The difference with Enunwa is – he’s working the slot, getting a lot smart dump passes. The Jets have literally built the offense around him. Cole is just one of 4-5 receivers Bortles could throw to on any snap.

I thought Cole might be getting a different treatment after Week 2…he’s received nothing of the sort. Plus, you have to have Bortles to make it consistent…and that’s a weak hope.

-- Bilal Powell (8-26-0, 4-26-0/7) is essentially the Jets starting RB. Isaiah Crowell (4-0-0, 1-3-0/1) looks buried here. Powell is sneaky because if you see the Jets being down a bunch…Powell is that PPR guy, that Riddick-Richard-Ekeler type guy that could get 7-10+ targets because of the game situation.

The Jets should be in the next two games, and Powell might actually be useful for the desperate on passing game work alone. When the Jets try to sit on a lead they pound Crowell more.

-- The Jets-DST as a sleeper this week?

The Jets are one of three defenses in the NFL with more picks than TDs allowed. They are #14 in passing yards allowed per game and #16 against the run. #12 in sacks. They aren’t bad. Not great either.

Much of their delight was because of that Week 1 thing against the Lions…where they stole the signals. They then held Miami to 20 points and the Browns to 21…crushing Tyrod and then folding vs. Mayfield. They were OK here, they just couldn’t generate offense to help the defense.

This week against Case Keenum, a higher turnover guy, at home…maybe, the Jets have a moment.

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Cole

60 = Moncrief

57 = Westbrook

29 = Chark

48 = Yeldon

24 = Fournette

07 = Grant

36 = Powell

20 = Crowell

IDPs…

44 = Tyler Patmon

39 = Nathan Shepherd

17 = Attaochu

09 = Taven Bryan

04 = Ronnie Harrison

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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