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2018 Week 4 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Saints v. Giants

Date:
October 5, 2018 1:40 PM
October 5, 2018 9:50 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I felt good that The Computer read on the Giants was correct -- ‘undervalued’ and that I was getting them at home against a New Orleans team that has burned The Computer all year…loved them to start this season, and they sucked, but turned on us this week and got burned again going the other way on them.

The Giants dink & dunked down the field on their opening drive and took a 7-0 lead – and I was in love with myself for this underdog pick. The Giants defense was strong…constantly halting the Saints, holding them to FGs early on…4 FGs for the Saints to take a 12-7 halftime lead.

The problem is the Giants offense is too weak to hang with better offenses, so once the Saints started to extend away – the Giants had no answer. The Giants have a good team, but the one piece that’s an issue is REALLY an issue. Eli Manning really is killing this team, but no one wants to admit it for fear of some NYG backlash. Giants fans can crucify Eli, but no one else can. He literally has become the new Sam Bradford/2018…which was so bad the Cardinals couldn’t win games either despite a scrappy defense and a great RB talent.

The Saints are overrated, and the Giants are underrated…but it doesn’t mean the Saints don’t beat them in a game more times than not. It’s going to be a long season for Giants fans. Possibly, a long decade.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- This is the Drew Brees that scares me (for fantasy)…when the run game is working (170 rushing this game and Ingram back Week 5), then Brees’s numbers ratchet down.

Ignoring the first 3 games of 2018, when the Saints couldn’t run the ball well, Brees in his last 17 regular season games (16 last season and this game): 23 TD passes (1.35 per)/8 INTs and three 300+ yard games, but 7 games under 250 yards passing.

Add to this the sudden love affair Sean Payton has with Taysom Hill (1-2 for 10 yards, 4-28-0) in the red zone and Brees is going to be fantasy-pinched by the game plan ahead, in theory. Opportunities lost to the run game and wildcat Taysom.

Not that Brees isn’t great still, for the NFL…it’s just a game plan shift. We saw it last year, and I think it’s coming again. He wasn’t even a QB1 last season.

I’d be selling HIGH on Brees to avoid what might be about to happen and this game was the warning shot.

In his heart, Sean Payton wants to run the ball. See: 2017

-- Eli Manning (31-41 for 255 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) truly is killing this team, and the dink & dunk is going to head fake analysts to say. “It’s not Eli’s fault, just look at the numbers!!” Yes, Eli is an efficient 74.2% Comp. Pct. with 4 TDs/1 INT this season. It’s just a nothing dink & dunk game defenses can play up on everybody on with no fear Eli’s going over the top…and sit back in prevent once they have NYG down and out.

Eli will rack efficient stats but not victories and TDs, unless garbage time.

The problem for NYG is…they have no legit backup to turn to. Arizona had Josh Rosen. The Giants cannot go to Kyle Lauletta like that. The Giants should have kept and groomed Davis Webb, who is out of the Mayfield-Mahomes-Goff style of play from college and hung with them statistically/on field -- he beat out Mayfield and fought with Mahomes for a starting job for a year before yielding it and transferring. Davis Webb is a gigantic opportunity for an NFL team in need…but the NFL has absolutely zero vision at QB and only goes where draft analysts take them.

Webb is sitting on the NYJ practice squad, while DeShone Kizer was traded for and is a key backup. It’s surreal. I GUARANTEE Davis Webb is better than Sam Darnold, but we’ll never see it play out.

 -- The lack of a passing threat has Saquon Barkley (10-44-1, 6-56-0/8) bottled up…and he’s a bad bottled up runner. Barkley had a 28-yard free run in this game and 9 carries for 16 yards otherwise.

The good news is Eli dinks & dumps to him and that props his FF value to RB1.

-- Alvin Kamara’s (19-134-3, 5-47-0/9) value is not hurt at all with Mark Ingram coming back. No RB gets better treatment/touches from their coaches than Kamara.

Last year, Kamara and Ingram were both top 5 fantasy producers working together the last 12 or so games of 2017 season.

You never know with Ingram…but Kamara is never in doubt. David Johnson doesn’t get the same treatment from his coaches…and he IS their offense.

-- Sterling Shepard (10-77-1/10) was an easy call against a bad Saints slot covering ability. I sell/trade the recent Shepard run because Eli is not going to take SS to another level. Tougher matchups ahead.

-- Cameron Meredith (3-32-0/4) took another step forward in this offense but I still don’t see any ‘it’ happening. If Brees is going to dial back, then Cam can’t be better than a WR3-4 ahead.

He was the best WR option Brees had in this game as Michael Thomas (4-47-0/4) was ‘on lock’ by Janoris Jenkins. JJ has been great this season.

-- Is the NYG-DST a sleeper?

Held the Jags to 13 offensive points Week 1.

Held Dallas to 20 Week 2.

Held Houston to 22 Week 3.

Really got over on Brees much of this game and just collapsed under the lack of their own team’s offense.

The problem is they don’t get a real good matchup until Week 10 at SF. Their schedule is mostly difficult and going to break them, along with Eli’s issues.

-- Dwayne Washington (2-2-0) played two snaps…and got two carries…on the 2nd-series of the game.

What?

Is Payton trying to say that he likes him? He is a great Kamara prospect if anyone bothered to scout in the NFL. If Kamara goes down…

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = M Thomas

38 = Ginn

26 = Tre’Quan Smith

22 = Meredith

12 = Carr

59 = Kamara

05 = Gillislee

02 = Dwayne Washington


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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