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2018 Week 4 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Seahawks v. Cardinals

Date:
October 2, 2018 8:00 PM
October 2, 2018 9:04 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This was another ‘two struggling teams meet, one of them had to win’ games like CLE-OAK. It also featured a rookie QB making his starter debut, and that’s where most of my focus was.

During the live watch, I was like…”Is that Mike Davis starting? What the…?” I was also thinking Arizona had their first win locked up, but they let it get away. On the re-watch, I was thinking the same thing – how did Arizona lose this game?

Both of these teams are 5-6 win teams at best. It was a fairly ugly game, and one of the won.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- My main focus on the re-watch was studying Josh Rosen (15-27 for 180 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). It wasn’t bad. Not bad at all. No help from him receivers…Larry Fitzgerald (3-28-0/7) uncharacteristically dropped two passes, and one was a TD. All the other receivers pitched in with key drops as well. I’d say at least 1 TD and about 150+ yards were left on the field. Two deep ball passes right in WRs hands dropped.

Rosen was about as expected…not as good as Mayfield-Mahomes-Trubisky, but not bad and better than some QBs in the league already. He’ll only get better from here. He stood confident in the pocket and made mostly accurate throws with good velocity. A couple misses, but way more ‘on the money’ throws and his helpers didn’t help a lot.

-- As Rosen quickly becomes plausible+, the old David Johnson (22-71-1, 3-41-0/4) will begin to emerge. Old DJ3K made about 3-4 appearances in this one…his best showing of 2018. All he needs is any space to roll and ‘it’s on’. He looks terrific, as always, but on most carries there are 8-11 guys creeping up and 1-4 of them in the backfield upon DJ’s first step.

Defenses will have to start respecting Rosen, and they will, and then DJ can start to shine. It would also help if multiple-failed in every coaching position O-C Mike McCoy had a clue. Too bad in his 25 hours a day of prep he doesn’t try more than 1-2 screen passes to the RB with the best hands in football.

NFL coaches…I swear, literally the dumbest people among us. The most success-adverse people on the planet. How does Sean Payton get Alvin Kamara 20 targets in a game and David Johnson gets 4? How clueless do you have to be?

-- I expected Christian Kirk (4-28-0/5) to have a better game than this, but he was still solid. He dropped a 30+ yard catch that he would normally make 95% of the time. However, this game didn’t have a ton of completed passes (15), so Kirk did OK relatively speaking. As Rosen grows, Kirk grows into the new/better Golden Tate.

-- I said I was shocked when I saw Mike Davis (21-101-0, 4-23-0/4) starting, but that wasn’t my very first thought. I didn’t realize Chris Carson was a no-go. So, my first glimpse at Seattle on offense I shot up in my seat with amazement that Chris Carson was running with such athleticism and agility…and then I realized it was Mike Davis, and then I went into shock, and then I was thrilled because I’m a huge Mike Davis fan. If I knew Davis was starting I would have bet on Seattle.

Seattle may not have as bad an O-Line as they think, it’s just that Chris Carson blows.

I pray Mike Davis gets a fair shot to take this job, but I know he never will. If he did it would literally be a ‘first’ in recent NFL activity. Everything I know says Carson is jammed 80%+ of the work the moment he’s cleared.

Mike Davis is a very talented RB and if you need an emergency guy this week for FF, you could do worse with him taking some touches…or maybe stealing this job somehow.

How buried is Rashaad Penny (9-49-0)? Pretty buried. How does a 1st-round pick not start when Carson goes down? Why did they make this pick when Mike Davis is better, and they already had Davis on the roster? All these O-Line issues and defensive problems…and they draft a 3rd-string RB with their 1st-pick. Nice!!

-- Doug Baldwin (5-41-0/7) didn’t look bad but definitely didn’t look like he was all the way back.

Side note…David Moore (2-39-0/2) gets a little more involved every week. He’s becoming a great deep-sleeper and stash for 2019 among the young WRs. Third most snaps among Seattle WRs this game.

-- Will Dissly (1-5-0/1) was lost for the season on his one catch -- as the TE plaque continues throughout the land. Nick Vannett is not a real strong opportunity/alternative for fantasy.

-- The Seattle-DST has performed well in 2018, but that’s credit to their schedule…they’ve played bottom offenses all year (DEN, ARI, DAL and CHI before they got religion). Now they get the Rams twice in the next 5 games among other issues.

Can still use the Seattle-DST? Here’s the answer: https://youtu.be/ERuKLsWCr_s

-- But can you use the Arizona-DST?

Takeaway the Week 3 games against LAR, because no one is stopping the Rams…Washington scored 24 points against them Week 1, the Bears scrapped to 16 points Week 2, Seattle should have been held to 17 here (gave up 20).

The Arizona defense is #31 against the rush, but one of the better ones in yards per carry allowed (4.0). Their pass defense has given up the fewest passing TDs this season (3). There are some signals that defense is ready to be top 10-ish if/when Josh Rosen settles in.

Even better is the schedule the next 4 weeks – SF-MIN-DEN-SF…all but the Vikings game is useful.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Fitzgerald

51 = Chad Williams

40 = Kirk

39 = Seals-Jones

33 = Gresham

47 = Mike Davis

16 = Penny

03 = Prosise

62 = Lockett

50 = Baldwin

43 = David Moore

24 = Brandon Marshall

15 = Jaron Brown

IDPs…

49 = Bucannon

34 = Golden

32 = Mayowa

25 = Pierre


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>