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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 5 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Jaguars v. Chiefs

October 8, 2018 9:13 PM
October 8, 2018 10:00 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Think about what happened here… Patrick Mahomes, in the rain, with Tyreek glued by Jalen Ramsey, facing the vaunted Jacksonville defense, went out and calmly raced out to a 20-0 lead and an eventual merciful 30-14 win…but it wasn’t that close.

The (supposed) best defense in the NFL, in the rain, and Mahomes looked like it was any old game. Ditto Baker Mayfield against the defense (Ravens) that was going to teach him a lesson, per the analysts. The new era QBs are better at throwing the ball right now (Mahomes, Mayfield, Goff) than Peyton Manning or Joe Montana, etc., ever were.

It’s not a fair comparison because if Peyton or Joe got to grow up in this new era, maybe they’d be ‘the guys’ too. My point is – the new era guys make this look too easy, almost nothing can stop them but weather and passing the ball to the 1-yard line and letting Todd Gurley get all the glory from there.

When the defensive surroundings are tougher, these new era guys still throw for 300+ and win games. When they get favorable matchups…you’re going to see the 4-5-6-7 TD games. One of them is going to drop an 8 TD game at some point. Mitchell Tribusky could have been the first 8 TD guy, but Matt Nagy pulled him back for two quarters.

The new era passers…Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield and coming-soon: Trubisky…combined 2018 record is 16-2. The two losses were Aaron Rodgers’ miracle opening comeback vs. CHI Week 1 and Mayfield screwed by the refs late in Oakland Week 4. They’re 12-5-1/13-4-1 (depending on when you bet it) against the spread.

Having the ‘Jacksonville defense’ or the ‘Ravens defense’ is completely meaningless against the new era elites…in NFL terms. They can’t be stopped because it’s not a scheme to figure out…they’re just better at this than anyone has ever been. Opposing teams just hope they can tip a pass or it rains…and even then…

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Just to put a bow on Patrick Mahomes (22-38 for 313 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 4-13-1)…two things that aren’t fawning praise for his play but need discussing…

1) He had two picks, but they were really not much of anything. He overthrew a pass in a tight window right to a safety when they were up 10-0, could’ve turned the game -- but then Bortles fumbled the very next play. The second one he forced as the game was pretty well out of hand…but didn’t need to throw it but that’s Mahomes, he’s a gunslinger. He will have these moments, but I didn’t see anything where the Jags had him confused, etc.

2) We all love and worship Mahomes, but 308.5 yards, 0.5 TDs/1.0 INT per game the past two weeks. His fantasy day saved by rushing TDs each game.

I say this because some current owners may think the hysteria is dying down from a hot start and are open to moving him a tad more than they were after he threw for 6 TDs in a game…current owners who do not respect the QB position in fantasy.

If you’re 1-4/0-5 after this week, I’d try to get Mahomes in a QB-friendly scoring system, selling out and hoping he might carry me with crazy number games ahead. Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield are your options for such a plan. Mahomes is the most expensive.

Mahomes next faces a top 10 pass defense Week 11 with the Rams, which the Rams will be worse than top 10 by then and that game may be 50+ points on each side. Baltimore Week 14 and Seattle Week 16 is his only top 10 (current) pass defense to face through the rest of the season…and neither of them are very scary.  

-- Tyreek Hill (2-26-0, 4-61-0/7) took the first play of the game, an end around for 40 yards, nearly broke it, lost yardage on a holding penalty away from the play…and it worked so well, the Chiefs tried Hill running just one more time.

If you don’t think there’s a risk Matt Nagy saw what he saw Week 4 with the Bears offense and goes right back to his stupid Weeks 1-2-3 offense – then you’re insane. NFL coaches constantly see successful things and stop doing them or use them as a decoy for something inferior. Andy Reid’s usage of Hill reminds of this over and over (as compared to Alvin Kamara can’t get enough touches for Sean Payton).

Jalen Ramsey legit shutdown Hill because KC barely/never used Hill for bubble screens, etc., instead sending him almost all normal passing routes. I will never understand NFL coaching logic.

Week 6…the Chiefs face the team most notorious for taking away the other team’s top weapon, so brace yourself for another week of decoying. Hill’s schedule opens up after Week 6.

-- The big winner of the ‘everyone cover Tyreek/decoy’ sweepstakes is Travis Kelce (5-100-0/8). I thought Kelce would struggle working with Mahomes’s wide open style, but defenses are playing back and giving him Kelce underneath at will…so, St. Patrick is taking it.

Kelce is going to be the #1 TE in fantasy ROS, would be my bet…over Ertz and for sure over Gronk. Looking for a game changing player for your fantasy team – it’s Kelce…at a position dying for anything healthy, Kelce is in the best offense/situation. He won’t come easy or at all in acquisition. I missed this because I undersold Kelce and propped up Hill-Watkins-Conley more.

-- Corey Grant (1-8-0) full-scale blows his chance to matter more by getting hurt on his first touch and now goes on I.R.

T.J. Yeldon (10-53-0, 8-69-1/10) becomes even more important now as the only experienced RB behind Leonard Fournette (DNP).

However, Brandon Wilds (2-6-0) is a real talent…he’s better all the way around than Yeldon. He’s got a dark horse chance to matter all of a sudden. Wilds has beautiful hands in the passing game. Deep dynasty rosters…take a look at him – he’s Matt Forte-ish.

-- Here’s the Keelan Cole (4-70-0/10) issue in a fantasy nutshell…

Jags blown out kinda quick, they are forced to throw the ball 61 times…Cole gets 2nd of the team most 10 targets…against one of the worst pass defenses of 2018 to-date, and he gets just 4 catches for 70 yards.

It’s why I don’t trust Donte Moncrief (6-76-0/15) either…among other reasons.

D.J. Chark (2-68-0/4) is a great WR prospect but he’s essentially screwed by this situation. It’s why I’ve slashed him down in the Dynasty Stash rankings. Bortles is going nowhere anytime soon, and the people sticking by Bortles would be the ones to replace him.

-- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (0-0-0/1) also just went on I.R for the Jags. That resulted in Niles Paul (7-65-0/9) having a huge amount of targets.

Anyone conned by the 61 pass attempts, 9 targets to Paul into thinking this is fantasy gold ahead…they’re delusional in my book. Paul, at best, will split with James O’Shaughnessy (3-27-0/6) in a normal game flow.

-- Blake Bortles (33-61 for 430 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) ripped apart the Patriots in Week 2 and everyone swooned…then 3 TDs/5 INTs and a 1-2 record since. You cannot trust Blake Bortles. Ever.

-- Before we crucify Bortles and keep mocking the KC pass defense…the Chiefs have held teams to 21.3 PPG the last 3 games and moved up to #7 most interceptions and #6 in sacks.

Like I’ve been saying…this isn’t a bad defense. They’ll give up points because they are blowing people out but that allows them to chase sacks/INTs/turnovers more…which is more potential for defensive scores AND you always have teams still punting to Tyreek for a PR TD potential.

After Week 6 vs. NE, they have Dalton-Keenum-Mayfield-Rosen…two possible useful starts in there.

Weeks 13-16…Carr-Flacco-Rivers-Wilson…not a terrible schedule late.

Just a thought.

Snap Counts of Interest…

52 = Hunt

08 = Ware

74 = Cole

68 = Moncrief

61 = Westbrook

25 = Chark

36 = O’Shaughnessy

35 = Paul

23 = ASJ


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>