ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 6 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: 49ers v. Packers

Date:
October 19, 2018 11:28 AM
October 19, 2018 12:13 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I thought this -9.5 GB bet was in the bag before the game started and after Green Bay jumped out to a 17-7 lead. The 49ers couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers the best day they could have in 2018, and the 49ers offense is nothing special.

The next thing you know C.J. Beathard hits Marquise Goodwin with a bomb TD, the momentum changes, Green Bay starts playing soft…settling for safe plays, punts, FGs instead of ‘energizing’ the offense, instead of trusting Aaron Rodgers – by halftime the 49ers were leading 24-20, somehow.

We remember all the 49ers fireworks early from this game…but the Packers shut that all down in the second half, holding SF to two FGs while the Packers offense continued to stumble. Eventually, the Packers did what they always do…just let Aaron Rodgers be magical. I could coach the Packers’ offense…I’d just tell everyone to workout/stay in shape and then show up to the game and just let Aaron Rodgers do whatever he wants. He was Patrick Mahomes before there was such a thing.

But because Mike McCarthy is probably one of the three worst coaches in the NFL, he constantly restricts Rodgers as a PRIMARY plan. He wants that run game to work. He punts on 4th & 2’s he could go for. He kicks short FGs instead of ‘going for it’. He has the best QB to ever play the game, and he constantly retreats with him – it’s embarrassing. The Packers should have 2-3 Super Bowls by now. Instead, we have them on Monday Night Football, at home, in Packers’ weather, scrambling to try and beat the terrible 49ers. No run game for years. Young rookie WRs not developed already. The Packers are a joke…maybe the worst team in football if you took Aaron Rodgers away. He’s league MVP already, just give him the trophy.

How do you mess up having peak Aaron Rodgers for a decade? See: Mike McCarthy coaching career.

The Packers are now 3-2-1, and are lucky they’re not 1-5-0. They are the worst team in the NFC North by far…except Aaron Rodgers has the ability to make them the best team in the league in an instant – he’s that good. The schedule is going to wipe out Green Bay, probably…you never know with Aaron. After their Week 7 BYE they are at LAR, at NE. Winnable games because they’ll be in a shootout, but likely coaching ends up getting the Pack two losses the next 2 games and all hell breaking loose. We project Green Bay to finish 8-7-1/7-8-1…but 9-6-1 is always possible with Rodgers.

San Fran is headed towards 2-3 wins, and a possible #1 pick in the draft.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- So, Raheem Mostert (12-87-0) is now Gale Sayers because he had 2-3 good runs on a solo night game. Which means that I got more questions, and love, for Mostert in emails and conversations this week than any other player…which is shocking.

Mostert is fine. I’ve been a mild fan of his from his preseason work the past few years…I like him in the sense that he’s ‘OK’/useful as an NFL RB. He came into the game for a few carries and popped a few nice runs against a weak 1st-half run defense and SF kept riding him a little bit. Did the 49ers JUST discover him? He’s been on and off their team for three years! He’s been on 7 different teams since 2015.

Matt Breida (14-61-1) has been leading the league in rushing occasionally this season. So…Breida’s getting ditched and Raheem Mostert becomes a superstar? I mean, if you need carries…Mostert may be getting some, but unless Breida goes down you got a split RB situation (and Mostert the lesser touch counts in the split) on a bad offense.

A 33-30 game, two acceptable NFL RB talents getting work…and neither saw a target the whole game. Why am I supposed to go bonkers for Mostert off this?

Two things…

1) People SAW this on MNF, PLUS it’s a cool/fresh name. If this was journeyman RB Brian Hill or David Williams…I suspect people wouldn’t really care as much. Mostert feels like some hot rookie-ish player just hit the scene to ‘discover’…because the masses didn’t know him much prior.

He’s been around a while.

2) If Mostert has 5 carries for 17 yards against the Rams this week he’s going to get dropped by 100% of the people who grabbed him this week.

If there was an obvious path to quick success, a hostile takeover…I’m more interested. Mike Davis is more talented than Chris Carson, so that I can get more interested in that despite the long shot it is. Raheem Mostert is as randomly good as Breida, Morris.

If the 49ers, possessors of Mostert FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS, had a big comfort level/enthusiasm with him…they wouldn’t have run out to get Alfred Morris the first sign of trouble early this season.

Mostert can work fine…I just don’t think he has a chance at meaningful work at all, on purpose. I hope, for his sake, he gets more work. He deserves it, but I’m betting against it.

-- Are the pro-Mostert people this week the ones that went nutty for Aaron Jones (8-41-0, 0-0-0/1) too? Mike McCarthy has an inexplicable, undefinable RB rotation. Has for years. It hasn’t worked for years. It only works when there are so many injuries McCarthy only has one RB he can play/give touches. He has three healthy RBs, so you get the cluster-muck backfield for FF.

Again, Jones is randomly OK/fine if forced all the work…he’s just not going to get it because he’s not that talented a runner compared to the other options, and not talented in a work horse sense.

I’ve been saying this for weeks/back into the preseason, on Jones, and here we are…let the waiver week ‘drops’ begin. Actually, Jones is a darling of ESPN/the mainstream…so, there will be another week of holding probably, through the BYE.

-- Marquise Goodwin (4-126-2/5)…that guy sucks, what a wasted pick, RC.

Oh, really?

I can’t predict hamstring injuries or bone bruises…but I know the talent pretty well. This would have really been something with a clean Jimmy G. and Goodwin combo all year, but we’ll never know.

I trust Goodwin as an WR2 who either will be a WR1 or WR3-4 every week with Beathard. Beathard’s not hitting him for bombs on the money a lot. As soon as Goodwin happened…the Packers, of all defenses, then took him out. Just 5 targets on the game, and all his damage 1st-half.

I fear he’s going to be a frustrating start week to week but will have some weeks with long TDs like this particular game.

Not crazy to trade him hot since everyone SAW this game/event, and they now think Goodwin is fine again.

Minus the bomb TD…3 catches, 59 yards, 4 targets otherwise. Be careful getting too overheated with him + CJB here.

-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-103-0/6) was left wide open on the 1st series, for a catch and run 60-yard play. He had 2 catches for 36 yards on 5 targets the rest of the game.

Three things…

1) MVS is the biggest ‘sell high’ rookie in the league right now…back-to-back big games, but somewhat a hoax…somewhat ‘of the moment’. If he were starting ahead, I buy him, kinda. He won’t be starting Week 8…not sure he’ll start in 2019 or 2020 either.

2) It’s very important for QBs to have ‘their guys’, especially Aaron Rodgers.

Randall Cobb comes back as a WR2 in PPR, and Geronimo Allison does as well. Neither WR should be starting for an NFL team, but they do…with the great one…so, they will be elevated to WR2-ish status. Allison in that coveted ‘getting the least coverage’ role.

3) Equanimeous St. Brown (1-19-0/1) is going to be the star of the GB rookies, eventually, bank on it. Next year, Rodgers’ 1-2 punch will be Adams-ESB on the outside and maybe Cobb or Allison or ‘other’ in the slot.

That was a money catch ESB had late in this game that may have been the catch that saved the season.

Post-game, Rodgers said MVS was a little ahead of ESB in ‘getting it’ right now. When ESB does get it, with his size and athleticism…watch out.

-- Jimmy Graham (5-104-0/9) has become a total slug, but just like Geronimo Allison…being near Rodgers means good things. JG is a TE1 still, but a very weak one.

-- Reuben Foster (9 tackles) and Jaquiski Tartt (9 tackles) are back, and rookie Fred Warner (4 tackles) has seen his hot tackle counts drop precipitously. Warner played 100% of the snaps in this game.

1st three games for Warner: 9.3 tackles per game.

Next 3 games: 3.33 tackles per game.

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = Valdez-Scantling

63 = Adams

35 = ESB

17 = J’Mon Moore

27 = Jamaal Williams

26 = Ty Montgomery

19 = A Jones

27 = Breida

23 = Mostert

01 = Morris

IDPs…

28 = Oren Burks

26 = Solomon Thomas

23 = Reggie Gilbert

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>