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2018 Week 6 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Chiefs v. Pats

Date:
October 15, 2018 9:27 PM
October 16, 2018 9:36 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

So, before this game started I was filling in my wife on the day’s events, as I do between the end of the 4pmET games and the start of SNF. I have like 30 minutes to get reacquainted with my family on Sundays. Work starts at 8am and ends about midnight with one 30-minute break on gameday…I work regular old sweat shop conditions on Sunday -- except this sweat shop has me sitting at a computer or watching football in a climate-controlled room surrounded by Diet Dr. Pepper, Coffee, and having meals brought me by my wife…so, it’s pretty similar to what third world workers have to put up with.

During my 30-minute break from football this past Sunday, I was eating some food real quick and I was telling my wife that the early games were not so great but everything pretty much hinged on St. Patrick (she knows of him and approved the nickname) and Tyreek (who she has no idea of) in a big game Sunday night. She one-quarter paid attention and 5% absorbed what I said -- because she luckily isn’t bit with the fantasy disease. To make it more real to her (and me), I said…”As soon as one of my guys (Mahomes-Hill-White) scores a TD, I’m coming down for a piece of that apple pie you made (we’re very American).”

After I said that I joked that I’d either be down in 5 minutes or never. I assumed I’d see her shortly to claim my pastry award.

Halftime came with no dessert having happened/no TDs. My wife had already gone to bed. The Chiefs had 3 field goals to show for a half of football. MYreek had done little.

I’m glad she wasn’t awake/there because I was shell-shocked from the day’s events. I bet on KC +3.5. I needed regular/good games from Mahomes-Hill to make up for various duds earlier in the day. I just needed a normal/good game from them to have a chance to turn pending losses to wins. Mahomes had no TDs and Hill barely was involved in the offense the first two quarters. I might have not been able to speak to her if she was awake or if I did it would have been the ranting and raving of a lunatic.

Instead, it was me, apple pie, an empty kitchen…and God.

I figured I’d break the rule and eat the pie as a consolation for this disastrous day. I ate and talked to myself…Man, do I hate football, I thought. I don’t even know why I play fantasy much less work in the field. I mean, I obviously don’t know anything. What am I even going to write about this Sunday disaster? How do I keep the morale up among the troops? I don’t have any morale myself right now…I just want to go hide.

Halfway into warm apple pie and melted vanilla ice cream…eating it slowly like a ‘final meal’ before execution/watching the 2nd-half of the game…I wondered what I should do now -- how am I going to fix all this going forward? The guys I’d want to go get are all already on my teams mostly. How do I go get Mahomes-Goff-Tyreek-DJ…I already have all them! I laughed at the notion…my first plan was to acquire ‘my guys’ to save myself from ‘my guys’. I had already started scratching out the list of ‘buy lows’, etc., during commercial breaks…and there I had Mahomes and Hill, again. I thought, with a dud on SNF performance, if I say these guys are ‘buy low’ again, after they sting us on national TV tonight…people will think I’m an idiot.

As I was cleaning up the apple pie remnants, thinking about what to do from here with serious losses headed everyone’s way and thinking about ‘my guys’ saving ‘my guys’, I felt like God spoke a message into my mind. I’m not kidding. I had no thoughts of the cup half-full or anything positive…couldn’t even properly enjoy my dessert because I was lost in thought. However, the message was clear in my head and it, oddly, soothed me that very moment -- I felt like ‘my guys’ were going to be the answer going forward. Not to despair. To Thelma & Louise drive off a cliff with them. To stick with THE PLAN.

I thought about it, and I was like…yep…my message will be to stick with the Mahomes-Goff-Hill-DJ group despite the down past few weeks. Trust my scouting gut. Trust the computer models. I felt so much better. I interpreted this positive message/plan as – good, I have my message for the weekly wrap up, and I don’t care if anyone gets mad about it. Now, let me go back to my office and continue watching the bloodletting. We’ll ‘get em next week’. Thank you, God, for that message of patience. I will go get them next week. Next week will be better.

I’m so stupid.

My guys WERE going to ‘get em’ going forward. Not next week. I didn’t need patience for a week…I needed patience for the next 30 minutes. I had no idea or belief on what was going to happen next, that what was going to happen in the second-half was possibly going to happen. I’m pretty optimistic and patient but I was empty as the 3rd quarter kicked off.

You know what happened next…

Now, we’re all sitting on top of the world this day. My favorite stories of the ‘where were you when MYreek went off?’ event last night were a few people who went to bed at halftime because they didn’t have any apple pie waiting and they had written their fantasy week off. If only to be a fly on the wall when they checked their phones first thing in the morning.

Mahomes-Hill/MYreek events like this are possible every week and at any time -- and we’ve gotten two MYreek mega-events in the first 6 games of the season, and pretty good results in the other games. They’re working…it’s just improbable for these types of games to happen every week. As silly as that statement is…we don’t believe it because we/me throws a fit every time Mahomes throws a pass to anyone else not named Tyreek.

This is why we got them. Why I advocated so many clients and readers to pair them together for moments like this. AND it’s only going to get better…KC just finished the ‘tough’ part of their schedule for young Mahomes -- JAC-at DEN-v. Belichick. Now, they are going to go abuse upcoming opponents in an offensive display, many weeks, the likes of which we might have never seen in history. They’re only going to get better every week.

The Chiefs are going to win 12-13 games, and I don’t think the Patriots will be able to match them…thus they’ll be the #1 seed and likely AFC Super Bowl representative.

The Patriots have a harder schedule layout…a lot of layup games and then some killers with CHI-GB-MIN-PIT still to go. I think the Pats are headed to 11 wins, 12 at the most. If KC gets to 13 wins they’ll get that #1 seed despite this crushing (for future seeding) loss.

These two teams are going to likely see each other again, and at what stadium it’s in means everything…I think…but part of me thinks KC will whack them from now until Mahomes-Hill is done playing.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Looking at the schedule ahead, besides a BYE Week 12, I don’t see a real problem matchup the rest of the way for Patrick Mahomes (23-36 for 352 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs). Maybe Week 11 at the Rams if Aqib Talib is back. Talk about a shootout game…

Mahomes is so the best QB in the NFL right now…that rollout and flick/bomb to Kareem Hunt was amazing, because I thought it would be him getting sacked or throwing it away but instead he outran the defender and just flipped the ball 50+ yards to Hunt on the money/in stride.

I thought that Hunt TD pass would be the best throw of the night until I saw his anticipation lob to Tyreek for that short TD…the foresight on that was something other QBs just don’t do.

I thought the 1-yard TD pass would be the PLAY of the night…and then Mahomes sizzled one to Tyreek late, where Hill leapt and caught the ball deep, landed on his feet with three guys bearing down on him and he just spun around and left everyone eating his dust. The athleticism on both Mahomes-Hill’s parts on that play was jaw dropping.

How fun is it to own these guys and get to watch them play?

Not fun in the first half.

Orgasmic in the second half.

Welcome to the era of MYreek.

Only one person saw it coming…and I mean not lip-service but paying the price for it ahead in fantasy. Enjoy the ride with me!

-- Tyreek Hill (7-142-3/12) drew 12 targets…the combination of Chris Conley and Sammy Watkins had 5 targets and 3 catches.

Remember how many analysts thought Sammy Watkins would be ‘the guy’ here? Can we all finally admit Watkins was poorly scouted and overrated all along?

-- Travis Kelce (5-61-0/9) had a ‘down’ game, in a sense. The Patriots set up a scheme to take Kelce out of the game, and the mostly did. You might use the minor dip of output to try to get Kelce somehow…IF you own Mahomes-Hill.

If you figure Mahomes is going off…Hill and Kelce are going with him more times than not. I have dubbed them the ‘Holy Trinity’. Having the three of them week in and out may make your fantasy team pretty unstoppable regardless of you other players.

Kareem Hunt (10-80-0, 5-105-1/6) kinda goes along too, but he’s a weaker, more erratic part…as the Chiefs don’t need to run the ball heavy because their passing game is more efficient, lethal. Hunt’s going to be a RB1-1.5-2.0 from the secondhand smoke aspect…the crumbs left from the Mahomes feast.

If Mahomes doesn’t have a miracle throw to Hunt for a 67-yard TD…Hunt has a nice game for fantasy but not ‘great’. Probably not many 67-yard bombs to Hunt in the future.

-- Anyone else think this…

The Patriots engaged in a shootout and Tom Brady (24-35 for 340 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) only has one TD pass? He didn’t look like he was in Mahomes-league. This was a gift of a game for Brady against a depleted KC defense…and he didn’t really make them pay. He was efficient, but they hid behind their running game. I figured Brady would go wild on this defense, he didn’t. He was good/fine, but not ‘wow’.

I felt like the Patriots played scared and on their heels all night, but the Chiefs played a half a little star struck…and with three key defensive guys out. I think when these two meet again, the Chiefs are going to plaster them if KC’s defense is healthy.

-- Monday morning, I thought Josh Gordon (5-42-0/9) was a pretty hot ‘buy low’…a chance at a landing a #1 WR talent working with Tom Brady. It could be something.

I lost some steam on that sentiment once I re-watched this game.

I watched the boring targets to Gordon and the missed shots deep and I had a flashback to the last time the Patriots added a top WR…last year, Brandin Cooks. Cooks was a super talented WR add, and yet Brady couldn’t really push him to WR1 heights…they always seemed ‘just off’…a little like Brady-Gordon in this game, and Gordon is not the WR talent Cooks is. Physically bigger-better/beefier but not as adept as Cooks.

Cooks was more disappointments and pass interference calls than fantasy producer with Brady. Brady had flashes of brilliance with Cooks in 2017 but not any sustained greatness for the WR. To me, it was a sign of Tom Brady lacking. Need proof? How good has Cooks been with Jared Goff? Much better than with Brady.

I’m just saying…the Brady part of the Brady-Gordon excitement may be an issue for taking him to WR1. Brady is becoming more of an Edelman-White short tosses QB with deep connection with Gronk…and rare deep connection with others.

Heck, Gronk’s (3-97-0/4) numbers have continued to dip for two seasons now…7 TDs last 16 regular season games.

Gordon was the end-all-be-all WR option for targets for the Browns back several years ago when he was great that one time for 7-10 games. He’s not ‘the guy’ for Brady, he’s A guy.

Gordon’s going to be useful, and has upside to have great games, but I don’t see any consistent magic at all yet between he and Brady much at all them. Part of that might be Brady isn’t the magic dealer he used to be.

-- The Pats hid behind running straight ahead with Sony Michel (24-106-2, 1-10-0/2). Nothing fancy but chipping away at a weakened defense and trying to keep the KC offense off the field.

I’m still not impressed with Michel, but he is ‘the guy’ right now so 20+ touches and good odds at a TD is nice to have, but he’s lacking in PPR unless he scores a TD -- and I’d still be shocked if the Pats go Michel as the lead the rest of the season. I still think they add a Marshawn Lynch or Carlos Hyde before the trade deadline for the stretch run.

-- Chiefs DB Jordan Lucas (10 tackles, 1 PD) is making some waves…8.5 tackles, 1.0 PDs, 0.5 INTs per game his last two games.

Lucas is 6’0”/201, a 4.45 runner with a 6.70 three cone and 38.5 vertical. A highly athletic guy who is playing with passion, aggression. IDP sleeper suddenly.

Snap Counts of Interest…

37 = Michel

33 = White

71 = Edelman

63 = Josh Gordon

47 = Hogan

06 = Patterson

03 = Dorsett

31 = Hunt

16 = Ware

IDPs:

78 = Marcus Lucas (100%)

25 = Elandon Roberts

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>