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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 6 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Colts v. Jets

October 16, 2018 9:13 PM
October 16, 2018 9:51 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game was a comedy of errors for the Colts, and still I thought they were going to win down to about 2-3 minutes left.

The Colts were one of my Blazing Five picks, which is suddenly ‘likely loss’ not ‘Blazing Five’. I was strong that the Colts would win here. Several passes bounced off WR’s hands turned INTs returned into scoring position and a few prayers from Darnold landing – and the Colts were constantly down and trying to get back into it. The circumstances of the game should’ve had the Jets win by 40+, but just into the 4th quarter the Colts scored to cut it to 33-27. More bad Luck and ‘Bad Luck’ helped the Jets finally win.

Two plays into this game, a screen pass to Marlon Mack clanked off his hands and bounced around and into a defender’s hands who raced it in for an easy score. The Colts ran right down the field next series and made it 7-7. It was 13-10 Colts with three minutes left before half. The Colts looked like they had this well under control. A Jets TD at the 2:39 mark in the 2nd quarter tuned it 17-13 NYJ…and then more turnover mayhem leading to two NYJ FGs in a minute and a half gave them a 23-13 halftime lead. How the Colts allowed two FGs in 1:39 before half is a mystery.

The Colts offense kept turning it over, the Jets would be in instant scoring position but the Colts defense kept grinding…the Jets kicked 7 FGs and scored a defensive TD. The Jets scored 42 points but only two natural, offensive TDs.

The Colts had everything go against them, some of it their own fault…and still they had chances to win. In my book, they outplayed the Jets. My Computer still swears the Colts are a good team…better than the 1-5 joke people think they are.

I’m not giving up…I’m betting big on the Colts -6.5 hosting Buffalo this week.

I’m also not losing faith in the Colts-DST, given the schedule and what I see on tape.

The Jets are 3-3 and are about to get wiped out by their schedule. They are likely to lose four of their next 5…possibly six of their next 7. The Computer projects them 6-10 with very tough times ahead, including two NE games, at Chicago and Green Bay.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Marlon Mack (12-89-0, 1-4-0/2) got off to a slow start…low output runs and the early butchered screen that led to a pick six. However, Mack got back on the horse and started gashing the Jets running the ball mid-game…the Colts just could get a normal offense going, always chasing in the second half.

Mack looked very good…definitely the best RB the Cots have and it’s not even debatable. He’ll get 15 +/- carries and should start to see 3-5+ targets per game when more integrated into things. He’s got a shot to be an RB1 for you during the heavy BYE stretch coming up. Not that he’s great, but like James Conner or Kareem Hunt – he’s going to get good touches.

Thank you, ESPN…for pushing Nyheim Hines (3-14-0, 2-21-0/3) all week as ‘the guy’, so all the FFM’ers could stash Mack and don’t have to deal with the heat on him for waivers this week, at least most of us sat on him.

-- Chester Rogers (4-55-1/10) redeemed his day with a TD late. He had a few drops to start the day…he should have had 6-75-1. He got it together late.

I just wanted to mention on him this week – if T.Y. Hilton is out again, and Ryan Grant possibly out…Rogers is going to draw Tre’Davious White and that’s not good.  

Week 9 a BYE.

Week 10, the Colts get the Jags and again Week 13.

I like the situation Rogers is in as the #2 WR on a team throwing a lot, but the schedule is not Rogers’ friend ahead. If you need him this week...if TYH is out…you may want to trade his heat because three of the next 4 games are awful for him.

-- Quincy Enunwa (1-9-0/1) got an early bubble screen, the kind that makes him gold for YAC, and he darted through traffic for a nice gain…but tackled from behind, the ball punched out, the defender landing on his ankle. He’s likely out 3-4+ weeks with an ankle injury.

Feel free to move on in redraft. Too many injuries this season (and last) on him. You have better things to go after. We’ll re-look at him later when he returns.

Jermaine Kearse (9-94-0/10) is no Quincy Enunwa…no way he replicates this stat line this week (or ever). Credit Darnold…the Colts were trying to jump routes on different things and not worrying about Kearse as much and Darnold worked it.

-- Anthony Walker (6 tackles) is averaging 7.2 tackles per game. He also has been racking up TFLs. Darius Leonard (9 tackles) is putting up eye-popping numbers, but Walker is quietly pushing numbers at LB as well.

-- Colts DT Grover Stewart (4 tackles), an NT that we like…after not registering stats early in the season – 3.5 tackles per game the past two weeks. His snaps have jumped from 10-25 to 30+ the last two games. Just someone to watch for those in the deep, 11-man starter IDP leagues.

-- I want to get more excited by how the Jets-DST is playing, but then I see MIN-CHI the next two weeks. Weeks 9-10 vs. MIA-BUF works. Weeks 13-14 vs. TEN-BUF is sweet too. Nothing but trouble matchups otherwise.

-- I believe in the Colts-DST…at least for one more week. If they can’t make noise hosting Buffalo vs. Peterson or Anderson, I give up.

Most DSTs have been terrible and even the good ones are about to have the schedule turn on them. I’ve never seen a fantasy DST year like this and I said that before the season – too many good QBs now, nowhere to hide with riding a DST on ‘schedule’ because they’re lucky to have two good matchups in a row…and too many cheap penalties sustaining drives. Look at what happened to the Bears and Jags this past week!

Indy has Bills-Carr-BYE-Bortles-Mariota-Tannehill-Bortles the next 6 games. The best schedule out there with a so-so, emerging, sometimes sloppy defense that is #3 in sacks, #9 in INTs, #9 in total takeaways.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Kearse

53 = Anderson

44 = Pryor

32 = Powell

29 = Crowell

36 = Sterling

28 = Herndon

27 = Tomlinson

61 = Pascal

46 = Rogers

40 = Grant

30 = Hines

24 = Mack

13 = Turbin

49 = Turay

39 =Stewart

27 = Attaochu


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>