ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 6 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Jags v. Cowboys

Date:
October 18, 2018 1:40 PM
October 18, 2018 1:55 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This was as bad as the score looked…40-7, and it wasn’t even that close. Reality has struck Jacksonville, and it’s why I didn’t want to play/draft the Jags-DST (currently #21 in FF scoring) to start the year – the defense is somewhat overrated, susceptible to good/great opposing QBs and their offensive game plan is horrible to support the defense -- and they have, arguably, the worst QB in the NFL. It’s all coming back to home to roost. Reality is setting in. They did this to themselves when they signed Blake Bortles to a big contract…and, now, they’re going to pay for it.

The Jags will probably win the weak AFC South, but that’s window dressing on a fundamental mess. They are headed to 9-7…but that can win the South with 9 wins. This Week 7 game vs. Houston may be the determining factor of which of those two teams does win the AFC South.

Dallas is all over the road. They have potential to be the Jaguars/2017 for 2018…if Sean Lee can get back…top defense in the league, and a stoic offense – but a much better QB than the Jags, a nice RB, useful WRs. Dallas is sooo close, but Jason Garrett can clap his hands and ruin it at any moment. Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.

If Dallas Wins Week 7 at Washington…I think they are then the favorites for the NFC East. Win this week, and I think they win 10 games and win the NFC East outright. Lose this week and it’s a fight to not be 8-8…a likely 9-7 record and various tiebreakers to win the division (or not and miss the wild card). The Week 1 Carolina loss could come back to haunt the Cowboys…but the Lions win may be a gem in the wild card tiebreakers in the end.


Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I’m loco for Jamaal Charles (5-5-0, 1-5-0/2) today. I wasn’t planning to be but several things converged at once…

1) I like Jamaal Charles as a talent still. I thought he was Denver’s best RB last year, and they never used him. Vance Joseph is an idiot, so it didn’t deter me from my Jamaal beliefs.

2) Most importantly, I was speaking to a semi-reliable source who believes the Jags are preparing to push Jamaal Charles the moment he’s ready. Just was signed last week. They think he could be their Adrian Peterson/2018/Washington signing – old veteran looks like he hasn’t aged a bit story.

Tony Romo, during the TV coverage, said the Jags think he might be their Curtis Martin…which could only come from the mouth of Tom Coughlin, who knows exactly what that statement means. What praise it is.

3) T.J. Yeldon is banged up…he might not be ‘right’. DNP at practice Wednesday. If out on Thursday, many will be coming after JC off waivers. If Yeldon ‘limited’ Thursday, then everyone will believe TJY is fine and no need for Jamaal.

The fact I wrote this means: RotoNotes will float the name of Jamaal one way or the other related to the Yeldon injury/practice status today.

4) What if Leonard Fournette cannot return this season or doesn’t until late?

What if you have Fournette now/impatiently waiting…and Charles is the best bridge to Fournette’s return?

What if you have both now, then Fournette returns Week 10 and pops his hammy 2nd carry back?

If the Charles theory is correct…Fournette owners NEED Jamaal.

I’m a believer in Charles’s talent. I’m a believer that T.J. Yeldon (8-41-0, 3-29-0/5) sucks (see: this game). I’m now a believer the Jags see Charles as an answer…more than I believed it 24 hours ago. I loved Jamaal in 2017 and he rotted on the Broncos bench, so you never know with the NFL what’s in coach’s heads – this is a Jaguars staff that can’t get Corey Grant the ball in space (when he was active), and then cries about how they need to each week…and then never did.

No guarantees here, but I’m loving the cost of this Jamaal move -- likely free off waivers.

If on another team…if you ask for him specifically, price triples, and their clued in to Yeldon’s injury. Wait for Yeldon to be ‘limited’ today and/or ask for RB help/depth without naming names.

-- Michael Gallup (1-27-0/2) is trying to happen again…

He started. Played the most snaps of any WR for Dallas. All ‘firsts’ for him.

Had a beautiful catch over A.J. Bouye early. Then had a fantastic leaping grab between two defenders for a 17-yard TD that might have been up for ‘catch of the day’…but he didn’t get a second foot in upon review.

I hate this passing game, so far (but I believe in Dak) but Gallup is showing sparks again.

This Jacksonville defense/secondary is the toughest Dallas has to face all year…the schedule is very favorable to ‘passing’ ahead.

You’d think that would mean Cole Beasley (9-101-2/11) would be hot but I don’t believe in Beasley. For every one game he has FF gold there are 9 others that he’s a WR4-5. What’s changed now except the Jags forgot to cover him about 7-10x this game?

-- Blake Bortles (15-26 for 149 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)…what can I say? I know QBs. You know I know QBs. I know that you know that I know QBs.

How many people were like…”Hmmm, Bortles” -- after his Week 2 vs. the Patriots? 4 TDs/6 INTs and a 1-3 record since.

At least this might finally precipitate a move away from Bortles in 2019…which would help Keelan Cole and D.J. Chark’s long term view, but two problems with that…

1) My early look at 2019 prospects…there’s no legit QBs, like a 1st-round god(s)…like this past draft.

2) You’re trusting people who watch Bortles every day and they decided with their fully-formed human brains: (a) give him a long term, expensive deal, and (b) What could go wrong? So, let’s not draft a mid-draft QB or pursue a neat young QB. Let’s get Cody Kessler as a Plan B instead.

Morons gotta be morons. How are the creators of the problem going to solve said problem?

-- FYI, Dallas DT David Irving (2 tackles, 1 TFL) debuted…that’s like a free Pro Bowl DT just fell from the sky for an already stout Dallas defense.

If the schedule ahead wasn’t so sketchy, I’d say the Dallas-DST might be the best defense in football (when Lee back) and go get and play all the ROS. It might be true when Lee comes back regardless of schedule.

Dallas 2018 as mini-Jacksonville 2017 is a Sean Lee return away, potentially.

-- The Jags-DST is #21 in fantasy scoring YTD. If they get popped by the Texans this week, they would then have Philly and a BYE Weeks 8-9. They might start getting dropped in redraft if Houston smacks them.

I’d be a buyer for their Weeks 10-16 schedule and their talent, but a cheaper buyer not a stronger buyer.

-- FYI, Brett Maher (4/4 FGs) is #3 in fantasy scoring among kickers YTD PPG…a good kicker to begin with but also on an offense that often settles for ‘3’…so, he works if needed.

Fantasy Player Notes…

45 = Cole

44 = Westbrook

38 = Moncrief

31 = Yeldon

17 = Charles

59 = Gallup

57 = Hurns

42 = Beasley

18 = Austin

Misc:

22 = David Irving

14 = Gathers

13 = Chark

10 = Leon Jacobs

01 = C.J. Goodwin (deep sleeper IDP/next Quinton Dunbar of the future)

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>