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2018 Week 5 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Titans v. Bills

Date:
October 13, 2018 1:11 PM
October 13, 2018 3:32 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

This game will always (at least for like 2-3 weeks) be remembered by me for Titans’ WR Nick Williams dropping a wide-open soft toss TD in the end zone with 10+ minutes left in the game…a drop on 3rd-down, forcing a FG and allowing Buffalo to continue to sit on a lead instead of Tennessee going up 13-10 and pressuring the Bills’ offense/Josh Allen more.

Nick Williams dropped a sure TD and earlier in the game he ran an incomplete route over the middle leading to a Marcus Mariota pick thrown to where the coasting Williams was supposed to be (if he were running full speed). I remember all this – because I bet big on TEN -4.0 and having it yanked out of my hands by Williams (I have to blame someone besides myself), ruining what was going to be a 3-0 run on my top bets played real life last week.  

The Williams debacle also cost the Titans an easy win against easy Buffalo. Once again, the Bills win a game they had no business winning. Two lost fumbles bounced to the Bills (just like the fumble magnet they had vs. MIN) and Nick Williams’ nightmare costing them about a 10-17 point swing.

For his efforts, Williams was cut the next day. That’s what you get for costing me money…

The Titans fall to 3-2, and losing this cheap win negates the somewhat lucky start Tennessee had…and puts them on a path for a 7-9 record +/- 1 win/loss. The Titans simply aren’t a playoff level team…or winning record team.

Buffalo is playing terrible football led by a terrible QB and they really should be 0-5 but they’ve had now two games where so many key moments (fumbles, picks, drops) went their way. Not normal. Buffalo won’t win more than 4 games this year. The lucky wins are costing them a shot at the #1 overall pick in the draft that they deserve.

Fantasy Player Notes…

Hard to take much away from any Buffalo Bills game…the Bills have nothing going for them, for fantasy, and their opponents either crush them or fumble everything away to them this season.  

-- Because of the lack of offense, let’s lead-off with IDP credit…2nd-year LB Jayon Brown (10 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2.0 TFLs) has been playing great football the past few weeks with Wesley Woodyard injured. I don’t know how they take him out of the lineup ahead…but they will, I’m sure.

3.0 tackles per game the first two weeks of the season.

9.0 tackles, 0.67 sacks, 1.33 TFLs per game the past three weeks for Brown.

Brown’s sack on Allen in this game was impressive… Allen rolling out looking downfield, but a lot of real estate to run in front of him and he had thoughts to turn it up field. Brown was so far away, initially, he wasn’t in the normal camera shot as Allen rolled out. Allen took one step to head upfield with all the room to roam and Brown came in like a missile and dropped him for a loss in a split second. His closing speed and instincts have been terrific.

-- LeSean McCoy (24-85-0, 2-23-0/3) looked a lot better in this game. Best he’s looked all year. Looks healthy, spry and not fearing any in-game arrests, apparently.

Everyone is looking for any fantasy RBs who gets good touches…26 touches is pretty stout here, even on a bad offense/team. McCoy was being dropped by people weeks prior.

McCoy trade rumors? I believe them more than not. If the Bills lose the next two…I’d bet they move McCoy. To Philly makes a ton of sense.

McCoy’s value would rise for sure as an Eagle, just because more TD potential. Don’t rule out the Patriots or Ravens either as landing spots.

-- I don’t want to say I told ya so on Josh Allen (10-19 for 82 yards, 0 INT/1 INT) but…

53.3% Comp. Pct. with 168.5 yards passing as a starter per game…and 2 TDs/5 INTs. Exactly what we thought. Anyone who says, “He’s a rookie, he needs time” has missed that the evolution of college QBs allows them to waltz into the NFL and succeed right away…and when they don’t it’s a huge red flag (Or confirmation in this case).

Allen is a bust…it’s just going to take another year or two before Buffalo admits it. Derek Anderson might be starting before long. Both the head coach and GM should be fired for this when the error is admitted – anyone with half a football brain had to see this coming. Except…he was so many scout’s and NFL coach’s top QB prospect you’d have to fire half the league and 90% of it’s analysts.

-- Marcus Mariota (14-26 for 129 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) had that unusual/weird passing game explosion against Philly Week 4 -- it made you wonder if Mariota turned a corner or found a groove? Nope. 129 yards passing 0 TD/1 INT here vs. Buffalo in what should’ve been an easy win/easy stat accumulation day.

Mariota’s last 16 games: 12 TDs/18 INTs…three 300+ yard games and eight games (50%) under 200 yards passing. Less than 200 yards passing in seven of his last 10 game appearances.

Speaking of teams that need to admit an issue and move on at QB…

-- The Mariota problem is why you can’t trust Corey Davis (4-49-0/6) and Taywan Taylor (3-30-0/5) beyond a WR3 status now and for as long as Mariota-Vrabel exists.

-- The Titans-DST ahead?

Held down lesser QBs Tannehill-Bortles-Allen, did OK against Deshaun Watson and rain helped them vs. Philly Week 4. I think this defense leans more fraud than legit.

A couple usable matchups ahead but mostly no-go’s each week the ROS.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = McCoy

18 = Ivory

49 = Corey Davis

33 = Tajae Sharpe

25 = Taywan Taylor

19 = Nick Williams

34 = Dion Lewis

21 = Derrick Henry

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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