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2018 Week 7 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Bills v. Colts

Date:
October 24, 2018 9:29 AM
October 24, 2018 9:43 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I went through it on my Video Q&A show last Tuesday, and it’s still true this week…and looking even better – my Computer models believe the Colts are one of the 10 best teams in football.

The Computer’s Top 10 teams through Week 7 (based on play this season, strength of schedule, various internal metrics, etc.) *A college hoops ‘RPI’ of the NFL teams, if you will:

1) New England

2) LA Rams

3) Kansas City

4) Pittsburgh

5) Baltimore

6) New Orleans

7) Minnesota

8) Green Bay

9) Indianapolis

10) Chicago/Detroit (four NFC North teams in top 11)

You might agree with every team in the top 10, maybe close to that very order…and, thus, think I’ve got a pretty sweet computer model – and then there sits Indy #9, and you’d be like what’ kind of stupid computer model do you have? Indy has been in our top 10 since I started running this after Week 4 (as has Detroit…and that’s been a winner too).

Let me throw you one in for free – the team on the rise/look out for/careful betting against right now…Tampa Bay.

The Bottom 5 teams:

32) Buffalo

31) Oakland

30) NY Giants

29) Arizona

28) Jacksonville

Either The Computer knows what it’s doing…or the Colts are a major anomaly. We’re not above having an anomaly…especially back in Week 4-5 when we’re getting started, only have limited data from a season to run with (early on the Giants were showing middle of the pack promise)…but now we’re getting good amounts of seasonal data – and still the Colts persist as a top 10 team for us.

The Colts played like a top 10 here. Coming off 4 losses in a row, two they should’ve won…there was some doubt on them against lowly Buffalo. In fact, it was Buffalo with the sneaky momentum from the masses going into this game. The Colts did what a top team should do – they went in and obliterated the Bills.

I would like to posture that the Colts are the best team in the AFC South…and still might win the division. Someone on the Video Q&A took a bet on that very thing…at 2,000-1. I’d jump all over that if that’s the line…that’s what it is at Bovada, I’m looking at it now.

The Computer projects the Colts at 8 wins (and that might have a chance in the AFC South) but with 9 wins in sight. Three key events coming for Indy…

1) at OAK this week, a must road win. They have to book that, but then a BYE and three weeks of winnable home games (JAX, TEN, MIA). We say they go 2-1 in that three-game home stretch. If they can win them all – then they got a path to 9 wins and the AFC South. They MUST win three of their next 4 games.

2) Week 15 hosting Dallas. Very close game to call. Indy may be playing for everything and Dallas could be out if it by then.

3) They have to beat Houston at Houston Week 14 to unlock the tie-breaker the Texans have by already beating them (in OT) earlier this year.

It’s there for the taking, and to us – the Colts are far superior to all the AFC South teams right now…so, it’s very possible.

Also, Buffalo was in this game – The Computer thinks they are the worst team in the NFL. Something we can all agree on…except Raiders’ and Giants fans may disagree.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- One reason why Indy stands so tall…have you seen how well Andrew Luck (17-23 for 156 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is playing?

TD passes in games the last 4 games: 4-3-4-4.

He’s been sacked once in the past three games.

He’s averaging 2.7 TD passes per game this season! Patrick Mahomes is distracting away from a great Luck production season…a legit MVP candidate when Indy gets into the AFC South race.

A legit top 5 fantasy QB too, all of a sudden/not all of a sudden/right under my nose.

-- It’s Andrew Luck + a very much improved offensive line + this Colts defense I’ve been raving about.

#4 in sacks.

#6 in INTs.

#20 PPG allowed, closer to top 12 minus all the defensive TDs they gave up…and forgetting their Patriots game where half their defense was out with 1-2 week injuries.

Great for DST usage ahead…

Carr-BYE-Bortles-Mariota-Osweiler-Bortles-Watson-Dak-Eli-Mariota the rest of the season. Useful the rest of the season.

Good enough, especially if they beat Oakland this week, to hold through their Week 9 BYE. Pickup Dallas on BYE this week, use Dallas Week 9 v. Mariota and then you might ride the Colts the rest of the way.

-- The return of Marlon Mack (19-126-1, 2-33-1/5) isn’t hurting this pro-Colts win the Super Bowl narrative either.

A very average/solid RB who should not be a lead RB for any NFL team…but he is the Colts’ guy, and gives them some kind of run game vs. Jordan Wilkins’ nonsensical touches – ride that into the ground on Mack for FF. No reason for it not to work the ROS, except if Indy makes a trade for an RB…or Mack cannot hold up taking so much work.

I thought he’d get more passing game work, but that may be coming/just getting into sync.

-- Chris Ivory (16-81-0, 3-25-0/6) is the man if LeSean McCoy is out. It’s very clear Ivory over Marcus Murphy (4-53-0, 5-17-0/6)…but Ivory is banged up, and the Bills may need to give Marcus Murphy a start Week 8 – and he’s not bad.

Murphy looked great in the preseason…he might be an RB1(ish) this week if McCoy and Ivory are out.

-- T.Y. Hilton (4-25-2/4) was held down by Tre’Davious White but did manage to escape with two short TDs. Tre’Davious White is one of the few CBs in the NFL who will chase the opponents best WR and is a CB to be feared for fantasy.  

White may go on Josh Gordon this week…FYI.

-- The Colts signed Mike Mitchell (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) a couple weeks ago…7 tackles in each of his first two games as a Colt. An IDP sleeper for sure with Clayton Geathers hurt…maybe even when Geathers returns?

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Dontrelle Inman?

41 = Pascal

36 = Rogers

35 = Hilton

37 = Mack

17 = Hines

15 = Wilkins

36 = Ivory

18 = Murphy

02 = McCoy

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>