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*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)
This game was 17-0 Philly after three quarters…it ended up 21-17 Carolina. How did this happen? To paint it with a super broad brush – all the ‘luck’ it takes non-Patriots teams to get to the Super Bowl in a season…it’s hard to repeat the ‘luck’ year after year. Philly drove down the field with a minute left and had four shots from the red zone with time to win it…they couldn’t covert. Last year, they would have. It’s a game of inches…except for with New England -- they get there every year no matter what’s thrown their way.
Philly is on a collision course to face Washington Week 17 for the NFC East title, winner take all…unless Dallas wrecks the party. We project the Eagles 9-7…but could go 8-8 – and we have Washington and Dallas the same way. It’s all too close to call.
Carolina is now 4-2. It seems like every week they either winner by a miracle or lose by one. I don’t know if they’re good or mediocre/lucky at this stage. I stay away from betting for/against them if I can help it as a handicapper. We project the Panthers finish 9-10 wins with a strong wild card resume (wins over Dallas and Philly right now).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, I’m starting to get sucked in. The delusions have started. Now, I’m starting to get a bit excited (20% excitement on the 100% meter, up from 1%) about Josh Adams (4-17-0).
To bring new readers up to speed…I think Josh Adams was one of the three best RB prospects in this year’s draft, and probably the best ‘technician’ at his craft of all the 2018 RB prospects…way better a technician than Saquon Barkley (who is obviously the best athlete among them), and in the debate with Royce Freeman as the best technical runner. I think Adams warranted a top 100 draft pick and push into the NFL…he got none of that. He became a UDFA buried on the Eagles depth chart.
Slowly but surely, he’s getting noticed…aided by all the Eagles’ RB injuries. Darren Sproles isn’t due back anytime soon. Corey Clement (8-6-0, 2-15-0/2) is running like he has a load of Clement in his pants. Wendell Smallwood (9-32-0, 2-5-0/2) is solid not special. Adams might be special.
Two things from this game on Adams…
1) Four carries this game, up from 1 carry the last three games total. He played 8 snaps, and when in – he got the ball 50% of his snaps. It looks like they are slowly trying to bring him up to speed. Why ‘slowly’ I have no idea…he was a star runner at a high-level college program (Notre Dame).
2) It wasn’t the 4 carries…it was what he did on two of his carries...
First carry…went outside, met by 2-3 tacklers, wouldn’t go down and pushed them all for 2-3 extra yards on a nice run. It was the next one that rang the alarm…
Up the middle, cut back left and Luke Kuechly standing right at the line of scrimmage without a blocker in sight. Kuechly, the best LB in football, a Hall of Famer, a great tackler got ready for an easy TFL…but Adams plowed right into him and sent him backwards and carried Kuechly for five yards, with Kuechly trying everything to halt him/bring him down like it was a wrestling takedown…before finally Adams folding down. It was very subtle but very ‘wow’.
As Clement fails and Smallwood is ‘OK’ – there’s a super-talent potential (Adams) sitting right there for a losing record Philly team.
I cannot advocate getting him off waivers in a 10-12 team redraft type scenario…but deeper roster things…we’re getting close…maybe…or I am delusional…
My delusions are usually not too delusional…just a bit early sometimes.
It’s kinda like the new Fantasy Football Metrics scouting theme song (don’t tap out early…listen to the lyrics and let the song kick halfway in): https://youtu.be/7MyOfUFjpoA
Your new favorite song you can’t get out of your head. You’re welcome.
I don’t know why he hasn’t released a full video of this yet, but it’s on Spotify if you care…
-- This game also is trying to bait me into Curtis Samuel (2-9-1, 1-16-0/1), whom I also love…
…whom I also know Norv Turner is going to ‘screw’ as sure as I sit here and type this. But, I like to chase rainbows.
Two carries…TWO CARRIES from the WR who was a stud WR and RB at Ohio State!!! Here’s the thing…you might have seen the TD run – a double reverse, a sweet run (because he has an RB’s mind/experience). You may not have seen his first run – lined up as a tailback…A TAILBACK on purpose!!! He should get 3-5+ carries every week if they had any sense about them.
Josh Adams doing work on Luke Kuechly and Curtis Samuel as a tailback! I need a cigarette after this re-watch!!!
Only 19 snaps for Samuel, so we’re not there yet…BUT, Torrey Smith got hurt and if he misses this week’s game – I might play some DFS action AND switch my ATS pick to Carolina. That’s how much I love what he can do.
-- Just restating what I’ve said the past 2-3 weeks…
Greg Olsen (2-5-1/5) is mostly shot…it looks to me. This was his 2nd TD in his last 18 games.
-- Alshon Jeffrey (7-88-1/10) has been terrific since returning to action…better than I’ve seen him play/move in a while. 4 TDs in 4 games. Great every game this season -- except when Xavier Rhodes took him out Week 5.
Well, Jalen Ramsey Week 8 and maybe Byron Jones Week 9 throw cold water on him the next two weeks.
-- Christian McCaffrey (7-29-0, 6-51-0/6) has no rushing TDs in his last 12 games. He has 3 receiving TDs in that span.
-- Cam Newton (25-39 for 269 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-49-0) had zero TD passes Week 1…and 2.2 passing TDs per game since – a pace like his MVP season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Smallwood
25 = Clement
08 = Adams
30 = Torrey Smith
27 = D.J. Moore
19 = C Samuel
26 = Efe Obada
21 = Bruce Hector