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2018 Week 8 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Ravens v. Panthers

Date:
November 1, 2018 1:48 PM
November 1, 2018 2:28 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

The Ravens jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead and the road favorites seemed to be living up to the hype. The Panthers tied it, scored again to go up 14-7, and then ‘the fumbler’ Alex Collins struck…a lost fumble setting up another easy Carolina score. All of a sudden it was 21-7…24-7 at the half. Baltimore folded quick.

The Ravens tried to jump start things all 2nd-half, but the Panthers just kept control and won 36-21, and it wasn’t that close. Carolina is better than given credit by the public, and the Ravens are overrated by the public – Baltimore had no reason to be road favorites here with all their O-Line injuries.

Baltimore falls to 4-4, losers of three out of their last 4. I said, repeatedly, during their 3-1 start – the schedule was coming to get them. Now, they are in a do-or-die game hosting Pittsburgh this week. We see a 4-4 finish to go with their 4-4 start…8-8 in the end.

Carolina is now winners of four of their last 5 games. 5-2 this season. 9-10 wins and the wild card is still their projection. They likely can’t/won’t catch the Saints for the division in the end, but do play them twice in the final three weeks.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- So, I had Christian McCaffrey (14-45-1, 4-11-1/6) as top ‘sell high’ guy this week.

Why?

He had 2 TDs in a game + everyone loves the name + he’s performing well, but not great…more an RB2 performance because he rarely gets TD opportunities. The 2 TDs this game was the special sauce to get a surprising, big deal done.

McCaffery had no rushing TDs this season, and just 1 receiving TD coming into this game. How can you be an RB1 if you are on pace for 2.7 TDs in a season? The 2 TDs here…one of them a pass to Devin Funchess, and the ball ricocheted 5-yards off Devin and into the air where CMC dove for the catch in the end zone…a TD not even meant for him.

Cam takes short TDs, as he should. Plus, CMC is not built to be a great goal line back. It’s why McCaffrey has played 24 NFL games and has 3 rushing TDs (7 receiving TDs…one of them this ricochet).

It’s why I wanted to sell CMC hot.

Also…I could live with McCaffrey if he was catching 6-7+ passes all the time and getting the 25-30 touches a game as Ron Rivera promised. The last 3 games, McCaffrey’s had the ball in his hands 15-13-20 times…nice touches, but not the touch-monster foretold.

The 6-7+ catches hoped for in games? Try 4.8 catches per game the past five games. Basically, CMC had that Week 2 game with 14 catches and then 5.0 catches per gamer otherwise this season – that’s fine but paired with no TDs and no 100+ yard games (because he’s not that kinda guy)…he’s been RB2-ish for PPR and non-PPR…and low chance at bonus/big plays.

So, trade him for what?

Well, I’ve had two client trades this week with an Alvin Kamara for McCaffrey base in a multiplayer deal. People willing to move from the Mark Ingram fear, I guess, but also loving McCaffrey (and his 2 TD game juice here)! Kamara is catching the ball more, taking more carries, and scoring WAYYY more TDs than McCaffrey is this season with or without Ingram being back.

You’d think AK for CMC foundations for a deal in PPR is crazy…it’s really happening in pretty savvy leagues.

I’m not giving away McCaffrey…I’m trying to take huge profits off this 2 TD week and the still simmering hype on his name. He’s good…steady…a back-end RB1 hopefully, but if I can flip him in a deal and wind up with a top tier guy – oh, hell yeah.

-- Speaking of RB swaps…the Ravens traded for Ty Montgomery. Might he be something? I don’t know…but I do know Fumbleruskie/Alex Collins (11-49-1) shouldn’t be a starting NFL RB and Javorius Allen is the most boring RB this side of Ronald Jones in the NFL.

I don’t think Montgomery is a ‘good’ RB at all…he should go back to WR, but on this depth chart…he might be forced into mattering for a moment or two.

-- D.J. Moore’s (5-90-0/6, 2-38-0) numbers keep rising. I pooh-pooh it, but he’s a legit WR3 option this week. His numbers are rising.

I think he’s a bit of a lazy WR, and I believe Cam never helps WRs for fantasy…for long. DJM could have a moment or two but eventually the targets/stats dry up and frustrate fantasy owners. See if you can find a delighted/satisfied Devin Funchess owner.

Curtis Samuel (3-28-0/3) is superior to Moore, but it matters not here.

-- Hayden Hurst (2-29-1/3) caught a TD pass with seconds remaining against a defense barely trying. However, note…Hurst saw a purposed bubble screen early and he was one snap away from playing the most snaps at TE for Baltimore here. For weeks, Hurst has been #3-4 among TE snaps – this game was his bigger move, which followed from the head coach talking up how they needed him involved more during the week.

There are early signs of more to come here. This week is a bad week for fantasy TEs with all the BYEs. Hurst may be some hope. I bet he’s in the fringe TE1 conversation in about 2-3 weeks…partly because all TEs outside of Ertz-Kelce are dicey week-to-week.

-- If Baltimore loses to the Steelers this week, and falls to 4-5 and losers of four of their last 5…while the Steelers jump to 5-2-1…guess what? I bet Lamar Jackson is promoted to starter for Week 11 given the Ravens are on a BYE Week 10.

Basically, Flacco is playing for his job this week.

For those in QB desperate places…picking up LJax before this week’s game to see if that’s true might be something.

-- So, will Justin Tucker ever kick an FG again? Probably not, you should definitely cut the best kicker in NFL history with impunity.

Obviously, I’m joking…but not really. He has 1 FG in the past 3 weeks.

Anytime a kicker like Tucker isn’t getting opportunity…you can’t blame it on them, and opportunity seems to randomly ebb and flow for kickers. Tucker could go from 1 FG in three games to 15 FGs the next 3 games. However…

If you’re in a league where you are pressed for roster space and you cannot foresee yourself going two kickers Week 10 to get to Week 11 with Tucker, considering Tucker’s recent shutouts, then you might as well make the change this week…like right before kickoff or whenever so no one picks him up for Sunday.

I say that because there are 3-4 really good kickers this season on many league’s waivers due to BYE weeks confusing things and people not paying attention to kickers, and rather building rooms like that stupid Car Guru’s guy trying to buy a used car…a room that looks like a serial killer investigation all to find the best RB this week because ‘MY RBS ARE KILLING ME’…as top kickers just sit on waivers and no one ever pays attention to their kicker situation…

*In no particular order…

Brett Maher is up near the top for kickers in 40-49, 50+ and FGs made this year…and he’s past his BYE.

Jason Myers leads all kickers in FGs made but has a BYE Week 11…and had 7 FGs in one game that kinda pushed things.

Robbie Gould has been terrific…if you see C.J. Beathard playing. He has a Week 12 BYE coming.

Ryan Succop has been money for two years now, and already hit a career high (3) in 50+ yard FGs with 9 games left. Succop led all kickers in FGs last season AND he’s past his BYE.

Snap Counts of Interest…

48 = Funchess

46 = Moore

26 = Samuel

09 = Byrd

31 = Boyle

30 = Hurst

22 = Andrews

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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