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*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)
The Computer likes both of these times…like fringe top 10 in the NFL type teams. The Computer then figured you give the edge to the home team in that case, but Seattle waltzed right in and just took it to Detroit. The Lions were mostly flat, and Seattle just punched them in the face and the Lions had no answer. A great, quality win for emerging Seattle…and a bad loss for a Detroit team that was showing signs of being a playoff team.
Detroit led 7-0 early and all looked ‘normal’, and then Seattle jumped ahead 14-7 in the 2nd quarter. After they took that lead, on the ensuing kickoff, noted fumbler with tiny hands Ameer Abdullah returned the kick, fumbled it away and that led to an easy Seattle score to bring it to 21-7 Seattle. Eventually 28-7 late, and mercifully 28-14. Every time Detroit looked like it was making a push, Seattle just put up a stand and halted them. A really impressive win for Seattle on the road.
Seattle has won four of their last 5…the loss, a 2-point loss to the Rams that they darn near won despite being in over their heads. Seattle is 4-3, but arguably could be 6-1 or 7-0. Every loss has been close. The Computer feels Seattle is the 7th best team in the NFL right now.
The Computer sees 9, possibly 10 wins for Seattle now…and Xavier Cromartie is smiling somewhere. He was right about the Seahawks this summer.
I kinda love Seattle laying -1.5 to the Chargers this week. Like it? I’m starting to love it on a Blazing Five kinda love. A likely real-world bet, perhaps a top bet of the week as we see the injury reports.
The Computer is fading former love Detroit…the Lions’ internal numbers are falling. They’re outta of The Computer’s top 10 and into the middle of the NFL wasteland. The schedule is now coming to get them…after this KEY loss. Really a bad timed loss for Detroit. We see Detroit 8-8 now in the competitive NFC North…they lost their track to win the division with this loss. They can get back on track if they win either at MIN or at CHI the next two weeks.
The Computer’s Top 10 teams through Week 8 (based on current roster, quality of wins/losses this season-to-date, and internal metrics on offensive and defensive performance, etc.):
1) Kansas City
2) LA Rams
3) New England
5) New Orleans
10) Green Bay
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’ve been saying David Moore (4-97-1/4) is a bit player and to not get too excited by the TD run…it was more blip than purposeful.
This game represents a possible ‘awakening’…my own awakening – David Moore might be about to ‘happen’.
‘Happen’ like as in – Wilson’s favorite, go-to WR.
Now, you’ll counter with ‘but look at the targets’. The targets (2-4-3-4 the last 4 weeks) are the reason I’ve been staying away from caring for redraft fantasy.
Here’s the problem: Russell Wilson (14-17 for 248 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is up to his ‘old tricks’ again. He does more on less throws than any QB in the NFL. He’s arguably the best QB in the league…not the sexiest thrower, gaudiest of numbers – just the best at getting results. 16 TD passes in 7 games…2 or more TD passes in every game but one this season. He’s amazing. He’s throwing a TD pass every 11.4 throws. *Mahomes every 11.0 throws.
So, Tyler Lockett (2-34-1/2) looks shaky, for fantasy, because of the targets, but Wilson plants a TD on him every week.
Ditto for Moore. I think Moore’s been trying to tell me this for weeks, but I keep looking at the targets and eschewing it.
Here’s the difference for me now…I thought the past weeks were more ‘lucky’ TDs to Moore. Just random heaves in his direction for a big play. Watching this game made me have this moment (video below) realizing that Wilson is not desperately heaving it to Moore – he’s purposefully throwing those passes to Moore as his ‘growing’ most trusted guy: https://youtu.be/s_6SenP4DDg
AND because Moore keeps coming down with great catch after great catch.
From an article on NBC this summer:
One of the more impressive young players during the preseason was Moore, who made a big play, or two every week at receiver. He is the team's No. 5 receiver and someone Wilson is pumped about working with.
"He’s been exceptional, he’s worked really hard," Wilson said. "We had a bunch of time together in the offseason too as well. Down in L.A. we worked together and stuff like that, and just got a bunch of extra reps and everything else."
Moore, a seventh-round pick last year out of Division II East Central, appeared in one game because he simply wasn't ready to contribute. Through developing his talent and learning the NFL game, Moore will match that appearance for the season on Sunday in Denver.
"From year one to year two, he’s just grown tremendously," Wilson said. "He’s a strong, athletic, smart, tough kid and he really makes a lot of plays. When you think about playing with David Moore, he can make all the plays. I think he’s got a chance to be a star in this league, he’s just got to stay the course.”
David Moore is NOT a don’t trust off waivers!!!! My bad. He’s a ‘deep sleeper’/legit top 36 WR that a few people are just waking up to. We’ve been ahead of the curve on his talent…just didn’t believe in this current run. I’m starting to believe…and believe this is sustainable and growing.
Now, before you dive for your cellphone…
The targets are low. Wilson’s yards passing are low – no 300+ yard games this season and been under 250 yards passing the past 6 games…and under 200 yards in half of those.
We may be a bit early here, but for non-PPR…he’s legit to start this week, I think…depending on your need.
Moore’s last 4 games: 2.7 rec. (3.3 targets), 55.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game. That’s WR2 work, he’s probably more a WR3 with WR2 hopes and WR4 downside in a given week – but I think I see a shift. Doug Baldwin (2-26-0/3) has been fading and Moore rising…I think Moore might be headed for upside if Seattle is pressed to throw more and run less ahead.
Last 4 games:
2.7 rec. (3.3 targets), 55.3 yards, 1.00 TDs per game = David Moore
3.3 rec. (4.3 targets), 49.5 yards, 0.75 TDs per game = Lockett
3.7 rec. (4.8 targets), 39.8 yards, 0.00 TDs per game = Baldwin
-- The passing yards are low because the rushing yards are high for Seattle.
Chris Carson (25-105-1, 2-19-0/2) keeps rushing for 100+ yard games (three of his last 4 games). He’s not scoring a ton of TDs or big in the low volume passing game…but he is getting yards.
I’m not a big fan, but he’s working. Seattle’s O-Line is coming together.
-- Kerryon Johnson (8-22-0, 6-69-0/8) is struggling when he meets a decent run defense. I think there’s trouble ahead for KJ with MIN-CHI-CAR the next three weeks. Don’t buy him low, sell him high. 1 TD this season, erratically used in the passing game and that will dive when Theo Riddick returns.
-- Detroit traded Golden Tate (7-50-0/12) and to me that signaled that they are ready for UDFA rookie WR Brandon Powell.
Powell is a Julian Edelman type WR…works underneath, tough as nails, nice athleticism. A 4.59 runner with 6.88 three-cone who returns punts (returned one for a TD this preseason. He has a little ‘if Tarik Cohen played slot WR’ vibe to him. He was a top 40 dynasty stash prospect for us heading into this week.
Player four years at Florida. Arrived as an RB but became a WR. Didn’t put up big numbers, but the QB play/offense was pretty rough. His final college game in 2017 – 9 catches for 75 yards and 2 TDs vs. Florida State.
College highlight reel: https://youtu.be/siUlxgrt1ZA
It’s likely that Powell will need weeks to get up to speed. I can’t imagine he just plays 85%+ of the snaps his first week and is better than Tate day one…and he’ll likely not be trusted by Stafford as he does grow in snaps, but Powell is so good he might force a faster learning curve.
He’s not a WR to get in normal roster redraft now but keep an eye on him. Word is leaking already through Rotonotes. It’s too soon to expect him to be a producer right away.
My 2018 PRESEASON NOTES:
Week 3: — I tried to dismiss Lions UDFA WR out of Florida Brandon Powell (6-45-0/6) the first time I saw he had some accumulation in the preseason, but his resume of work this preseason demands he be taken more seriously than I was giving.
I’d say he’s just about locked up a roster spot for sure but has probably pushed his way into a #4-5 role among the WR group.
It’s going to be impossible for him to have any 2018 fantasy impact on this current WR depth chart, unless injuries occur. However, down the road, Powell shows signs of a future life.
He’s like Golden Tate, only tougher, but less smooth/experienced. Powell is making the tough catches over the middle and just running away from people in coverage and would-be tacklers. He had a sweet 80-yard punt return touchdown in this game as well. I was asleep on him, but asleep no more.
Week 4: -- Lions UDFA rookie WR Brandon Powell (1-4-0/2) is something that worked out ‘right’ in the preseason. They stumbled by accident into a really good, scrappy, future starter as a Julian Edelman-type WR. Powell made the team, as he deserved to. One of the best, late-breaking rookies I’ve seen this preseason. He won’t have his day until 2019+ and might be better for the NFL than fantasy…but keep him on the radar if Golden Tate goes down.
Preseason highlights: https://youtu.be/YDHWDP8oYyI
-- Golden Tate in Philly? Hate it. I like Tate on turf/in a dome and with trusted Stafford. Outdoors, cold NFC East, new QB relationship – hate it. I see Tate away for whatever I can get in redraft.
-- Damon Harrison (7 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2.0 TFLs) debuted via his trade from NYG and was terrific. Great IDP numbers from a DT who is playing on a team that opponents try to beat by running on them. Good days ahead for his IDP numbers as a DT.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Willson
18 = Roberts
14 = Toilolo
48 = Kerryon
07 = Blount
54 = Baldwin
45 = Moore
44 = Lockett
42 = Carson
20 = Mk Davis