ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 9 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Chargers v. Seahawks

Date:
November 8, 2018 10:26 AM
November 8, 2018 10:25 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I thought Seattle was a best bet of the week – I was sure of it. Seattle at home, emerging team, and I showed the Chargers as an overrated team in internal metrics. The Seahawks jumped out to a 7-0 lead quickly, and all was right with the world.

Next thing I know it’s 19-7 Chargers in the 2nd quarter.

Down 19-10, with Seattle running out of time in the 4th quarter…Russell Wilson throws a pick-six. 25-10…ballgame.

Until it wasn’t ‘ballgame’.

Seattle scores quickly to get it to 25-17, then gets the ball back for a final drive with seconds remaining and is in the red zone for one final shot at tying/winning the game. Wilson delivers a tight window pass to David Moore, who can’t make the catch…ballgame. Chargers win 25-17.

Seattle falls to 4-4 and has @LAR, GB, @CAR the next 3 games…their season may be about to end if they’re swept there. We project Seattle 9-7 and if they can beat Green Bay at home on TNF Week 11 and beat the Vikings Week 14 at home…their 9-7 might be the last wild card. Seattle has hope, but losing this game really cost them a good chance at a 10-win season and a definite wild card. There’s still time but the schedule isn’t easy.

The Chargers are rolling – winners of five in-a-row. Close wins on some…but wins nonetheless. If things weren’t going well enough, LAC has OAK-DEN-ARI the next 3 weeks – a 9-2 record is very much in sight. We project them 11-5, and the #1 wild card slot most likely…which means they likely travel to Pittsburgh in January, and that’s not great for them historically (cold temps).

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Chris Carson (8-40-0) has so many ailments thy are hard to keep track of. Why Seattle keeps pushing him to play when they have Mike Davis (15-62-0, 7-45-0/8) and Rashaad Penny (4-11-0, 3-13-0/3) just shows how ridiculous Pete Carroll is. He’s beyond in love with Carson so much that he doesn’t use sound judgement with him. Just let him take a few weeks off to get healed…he’s not that key to the offense!

Mike Davis was terrific in relief, as usual…their best/most experienced runner and a wonderful receiver out of the backfield. He would be/is better for this offense…and it looks like that’s going to happen, at least this week. I gotta believe Carson goes on the shelf for a week or two…possibly headed to I.R. with that hip issue (and everything else issue). Davis is set up to be the lead back the ROS…or, at least, for 1-2-3 weeks.

I’m excited about Davis, but I can’t get super-excited because Penny looms…and he’s a talent too.

We’ll see what happens this week…if Carroll rolls Carson out there with his injuries, then there is no hope for Davis-Penny now or 2019, unless Carson is literally broken apart and put on I.R.

Davis is an RB1 threat for fantasy if he gets the job clean – strong runner, wonderful receiver.

-- I cursed David Moore (2-16-0/7) by endorsing him last week. I love his talent but was worried his targets were more random events. The more I watched the past week’s games, the more I saw Wilson deferring to Moore…but this is still a low volume pass offense. I think Moore is becoming Wilson’s favorite look…over Doug Baldwin, but not sure that gets us much more than a WR2…WR4 if no TD.

Moore led all Seattle receivers with 7 targets, but just two catches. He had two TDs/hands on the ball but couldn’t come down with the catch. There’s still emerging hope here but this game was a sad fantasy event.

-- Tyrell Williams (2-23-1/3) now has 4 TDs in his past 3 games. He’s earning the trust of Philip Rivers again, but, like David Moore, it’s low targets, high efficiency – and that’s scary because the big upside games aren’t as possible off 2-5 targets in games.

Williams, for his part, is making miraculous catches to get his TDs…nothing is coming easy, which scares me that he has to have miracles every week.

-- Nick Vannett (6-52-1/8) had a Jeff Heuerman event…forgotten TE in coverage, lots of throws, not much excitement with them but did nab a TD. I’m not ready to buy into Vannett more than a weak TE2 at this stage. He’s not Will Dissly.

-- Jatavis Brown (11 tackles) led the despite only playing 63% of the snaps…but that was the most of any LB. Kyzir White is hurt/gone, so here we go with Jatavis for IDP!!! I hope.

-- Seattle DE Dion Jordan (2 tackles, 0.5 TFLs) is back…last two games, 2.5 tackles, 0.75 TFLs.  He was a producer for IDP in his brief time last season and he’s showing signs again of late. One to watch in deep IDP leagues.

-- The Chargers-DST…four opponents held under 20 points in a row (albeit mostly weaker offenses/low scoring offenses). They have three more gems ahead – OAK-DEN-ARI.

Weeks 13-15 is an issue…PIT-CIN-KC…weather issues and stout offenses to face.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams:

The Chargers have CIN-@KC-BAL ahead…not easy, but mostly good matchups…especially if Baltimore is out of the race. At KC in December Week 15 could put a halt on Rivers/Allen/the passing game…much less crush their DST.

Seattle has a DST issue…MIN-@SF-KC. Usable for Week 15. Weeks 13 and 15 they have SF both weeks, that’s a good thing. Weeks 15-16 with SF-KC should be fine for their offensive production.

Snap Counts of Interest:

72 = Baldwin

68 = Lockett

63 = Moore

48 = Vannett

25 = Dickson

58 = Davis

13 = Penny

10 = Carson

34 = Virgil Green

16 = Sean Culkin

16 = Gates

IDPs

51 = Jatavis

48 = Perryman

35 = Nwosu

26 = Dion Jordan

08 = Rasheem Green

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>