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2018 Week 9 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Jets v. Dolphins

November 8, 2018 2:52 PM
November 8, 2018 2:50 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

I real barnburner here…13-6 Miami. Two teams going nowhere played a game, and one of them won…luckily. The team with less-worse game play won.

Somehow, Miami is 5-4 this season…wins over the Jets, and the Jets again, Oakland, Tennessee, and shockingly, luckily the Bears. Every game won by one score of some variety. Miami is now 4-1 at home and 1-3 on the road…heading to at GB and at Indy the next two games. They’ll lose both of those games on their way to 7-9.

Here’s what is amazing about Miami…5 wins and two games left with Buffalo still. They have 7 wins in the bag (maybe), but the rest of their schedule is all playoff type teams. Win one of them and they finish 8-8…win two, somehow, and they could sneak into the wild card.

The Jets fall to 3-6, on their way to 5-11. I still say the Jets could have gone 8-8/9-7 had Teddy Bridgewater started, but we’ll never know. Todd Bowles can contemplate that this offseason after he gets fired because of it.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Can I just remind everyone of just how good at QB scout that I am?

After Week 1…all I heard was how great Sam Darnold was and how Mitch Trubisky just ‘didn’t have it’. I never lost faith in my scouting…and now look where we are.

I guess we’ll do the same dance with Sam Darnold as everyone did with Jameis Winston – me the only one right about both top prospects TWO YEARS before they even entered the NFL Draft. It was so obvious scouting them how crappy they were. I was incredulous with what anyone saw in them…except EVERY ONE of THEM claimed to see ‘it’ on both of them.

The same dance as Winston for Darnold means…we have to sit through 3-4 years of him getting all the chances while very good QBs sit as backups and on practice squads, and who will never get the chance, so we can watch Darnold fail repeatedly…while the national football media and analyst class makes excuse after excuse.

Darnold has 9 TDs/13 INTs since his opening day luck-fest. He’s getting worse as the season goes on. He’s completed 51.8% of his passes since Week 3. He’s been at or under 50% completions in five of his last 7 games. The interceptions he threw in this game were mostly all ridiculous – guys standing right in front of the receiver and Darnold throws it anyway.

Sam Darnold is the fraud of the century as a top QB prospect, an even bigger scouting hoax than Jameis Winston. How can EVERY single scout be wrong like this over and over and over…and yet no one questions it?

This upcoming week we get Josh McCown…and he’ll be an upgrade.

McCown makes Quincy Enunwa (3-40-0/3) viable. It would make Robby Anderson viable too, but he’s likely too hurt to play which means Enunwa will get too much coverage to be a sweet sleeper.

Long-term…Anderson, Enunwa…ruined as long as Darnold exists. Which is a shame because both guys are Pro Bowl level talents, especially Enunwa. He deserves better than this.

-- I thought Elijah McGuire (7-30-0, 3-37-0/5) looked solid here. Probably, as good/better than Isaiah Crowell. After this week, especially if the Jets lose to Buffalo…I could see McGuire as more the lead RB. If not by Week 12, then maybe Weeks 14-15.

Still, this offense is such a disaster…McGuire getting 65% of the work is pretty meaningless/RB3 action.

-- Kenyan Drake (3-9-0, 4-26-0/6) still acting as a de-facto WR. Had an easy red zone TD toss going his way but the throw was tipped by a pass rusher and robbed the fantasy joy.

Drake has had a nice run of late, but he’s just a sketchy RB2…everything riding on how much Miami throws the ball.

A slight concern that Kalen Ballage (2-17-0/2) is seeing more snaps as a receiver as well. Drake is an RB2 in PPR, no more, no less.

-- DeVante Parker (1-8-0/2) was such a joke in this game. He played 89% of the snaps and caught 1 pass on 2 targets. I laughed at how many FFM opponents in games Week 9 had Parker as a forced starter during the BYE week issues and caught the disease. Thanks, mainstream!!!

-- The Jets-DST has a pretty nice resume…

#2 defense in 3rd-downs allowed (31.3%)

#6 in INTs (10)

#14 yards per game allowed, #16 in PPG allowed.  

They’re not bad…and getting Buffalo Weeks 10 and 14 is awesome. Week 13 at TEN might work too.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

The Jets face @BUF-HOU-GB…Buffalo in Week 14 works for their DST but HOU coming to cold NY in Week 15 may be a sneaky play too. However, the Jets will be way out of the playoffs and the head coach likely in lame duck mode. Elijah McGuire may be the most interesting guy for FF down the stretch.

Miami should be 6-6 entering Weeks 14-16, so they should be going all out. NE-@MIN-JAX is likely three losses and tougher defenses to face and might lead to a lot of Drake pass game efforts v. Gore running out a lead.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Parker

47 = Amendola

29 = Jakeem

33 = O’Leary

27 = Gesicki

09 = Smythe

29 = Gore

28 = Drake

04 = Ballage

48 = Kearse

48 = Enunwa

47 = Robby A

36 = McGuire

23 = Crowell

07 = Cannon


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>