ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

2018 Week 9 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Packers v. Patriots

Date:
November 6, 2018 8:16 AM
November 6, 2018 8:17 AM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

All week, all we heard was debates about Brady vs. Rodgers…who was better, and would Rodgers have won a bunch of titles with Bill Belichick – which to me means an admission that Mike McCarthy has done Rodgers wrong, but rare few in the mainstream ever fully goes there.

I’m in the camp the Patriots win a lot of titles with Rodgers-Belichick. Rodgers is the better physical quarterbacking talent and Brady the better ‘mind’ for this. Brady probably fit better with Belichick. Rodgers would have thrived with a Sean McVay, but would have been fine with Belichick.

Regardless of the Brady v. Rodgers high-level debate, we had this game in 2018.

Were you like me and watched the Rams v. Saints game before watching Brady v. Rodgers? If so, did you think the same thing after -- that the Goff v. Brees matchup was a far superior display of current offense and quarterbacking? Rodgers does not look as great as usual, because this offense is stiff. Brady looks broken down by comparison to watching these two games/4 QBs in action. Brady is still good, still legit but nowhere near what he was and the 4th best QB of the four mentioned here.

Brees looked good as usual, but the best QB, to me, by far in November 2018…Jared Goff. Jared Goff put on a show in this game. The throws Goff made were better (2018/current) and more frequent than then the still great Aaron Rodgers in his succinct ball placement.

To me, Brady v. Rodgers was a full-scale step down from Brees v. Goff. Not even close from a scouting eye or in actual offensive results.

As far as the game goes…

It was 17-17 into the 4th quarter. The Pats had a failed on a 4th & goal (another small sign of the slow fade of Brady was that stalled scoring drive) in the 2nd-half. The Packers had a key fumble which led to the Pats pulling momentum and taking over the game late and winning…with a WR playing running back.

The Packers fall to 3-4-1 and are in real trouble. They have at MIN, at SEA, at CHI in upcoming weeks. We have them 8-7-1 as a final projection, possible 9-6-1 and maybe a wild card shot. 10 wins likely takes the NFC North (and the final NFC wild card), and Chicago has a nice path to 10 wins, right now.

The Patriots look, to me, like their worst team in…ever…that I’ve seen with Brady. Yet, they keep winning…6 wins in a row. 7-2 and needing to keep winning to try to finish tied/ahead of KC to get the #1 seed. We project 13-3 and the #2 seed, but the #1 seed very possible.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Can I just ask… How is it Cordarrelle Patterson (11-61-1, 1-7-0/1) can be rolled into being a main carry RB on the fly and be totally fine/really good? More to the point – why hasn’t Patterson been getting more touches if he has such capabilities? More touches in 2018, more touches for years. That guy should sue the NFL for criminal mishandling of his career.

I’d argue, but no one would listen, that Patterson is better at being a running back than Sony Michel was. A 1st-round pick RB is not as good as his job as a WR who has never played traditional RB for more than a snap or two in games here and there…how is this possible?

What will New England do with this info? Go right back to full scale Michel or split it up some? If I owned Michel, and I don’t – I’m not comfortable with this new development. James White takes his chunk of activity and now Cordarrelle may take 3-4-5 carries in games as well. Maybe more.

If I know the NFL, Patterson will not touch the ball when Michel returns…but maybe it became obvious to Belichick seeing it firsthand via this recent emergency?

-- Josh Gordon (5-130-1/10) had a big game, but it sure didn’t feel like it. I keep watching Gordon’s every target live and re-watching during the week – and I never get excited or see the ‘wow’ just waiting to be unleashed. He looks like every good NFL WR.

His 55-yard TD late was a bit of a fake out by Brady and coverage bit and left Gordon wide-open. If that play never happens and Gordon ends with 4-80-0 night, perhaps…another OK game but not ‘wow’. The same type of games Brandin Cooks would frustratingly have every week with Brady in 2017.

Gordon’s not as good as we think…and Brady isn’t either.

I trade Gordon on this event if I can find a buyer of him at WR1.5 or better values. Some people hate him and want nothing to do with him, but some LOVE him…carry a torch from 5+ years ago. Find that person to do a deal with.

-- You might be better off with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-101-0/6) for fantasy ROS than Josh Gordon, honestly.

I’m not a huge MVS fan, but he had some nifty catches in this game. He’s got more speed/pop than Gordon shows…BUT the real value is being the #2 for Aaron Rodgers. Geronimo Allison was a WR1.5 producer (small sample) with Rodgers for a few weeks…and Allison is not an NFL starting WR talent. The more time MVS gets with Rodgers, the more this is going to develop in 2018.

Now, with Allison totally out of the picture, I can dig MSV because he’s starting clear – and anyone starting all game with Rodgers is a WR2 hopeful. As Randall Cobb fades and Jimmy Graham lumbers and Equanimeous St. Brown is far behind in time/snaps with Rodgers – MSV is a play. I was hesitant with Allison hanging around but with him out of the way, it’s time to embrace MSV more.

Someday, it will be the Equanimeous St. Brown (1-4-0/4) show but it’s not there yet.

-- Aaron Jones (14-76-0, 2-10-0/4) looks like he is taking over the main role at RB, but with a split with Jamaal Williams (7-34-0, 2-20-0/2). However, Jones had a huge/key fumble in this game…and that may pull this back to a 50-50 time share.

Either way, I do not like Green Bay RBs for fantasy – no consistency for any of them in the passing game and no major TDs run for because Rodgers is so efficient passing for them.

-- The Patriots-DST is an interesting play every other week the ROS…

Mariota, BYE, Darnold, Cousins, Osweiler, Big Ben, Bills QB the next 7 weeks.

The DST that pairs perfectly, if you can trust them…the Colts who have TEN-JAC-DAL Weeks 11, 13, 15.

The Patriots held Aaron Rodgers to 17 points. Buffalo to 6 last week. Giving up points to CHI and KC Weeks 6-7, totally understandable. The Patriots have a ‘good’ not ‘great’ defense but against Mariota-Darnold-Osweiler-Allen(?) they will be great. Top tier those weeks.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes/Considerations…

December could be messy for the Packers passing game, if a southern player like Marquez Valdez-Scantling is not ready for it/going to thrive in it. The weather could also hurt Aaron Rodgers a tick – not that he isn’t used to it but conditions possibly so cold it puts a lid on the passing game upside.

This December, Weeks 13-17 the Packers are at Green Bay, at Green Bay, at Chicago, at New York, at Green Bay. That could be some very cold scenarios ahead. FYI

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = White

13 = Patterson

03 = Barner

71 = Adams

60 = MVS

56 = Cobb

15 = St. Brown

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>