2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 1 – 49ers 31, Bucs 17
I thought this was going to be a fairly straight forward game to interpret without a ton of ‘special’ notes and just a lot of me making of fun of Jameis Winston…but I might have more shocking, bombastic things for you to consider than any game so far this week! And, I’m not going to make fun of Winston either. For a reason. You’ll see.
Get ready to lean into these first three notes. Each one progressively ‘deeper’ and more of a call to some kinda of action (potentially). I’m especially geeked for note #3. Here we go!!
Also, I know…
…I know I’m giving you a thousand things to love and you only have so many roster spots. You can’t love them all. You can, but you can’t marry them all. Picking between Hardman-Hollywood-Diontae-McLaurin-Chark-Conley-Ogunbowale, etc…dude, I see the value in all of them too. Each has a unique positive and negative. Each is going to be priced radically different next Tuesday.
This is what I want to bring to you…lots of options, too much excitement to contain on one roster! Remember, when you didn’t know who half these guys REALLY were fast enough before FFM? Let’s rejoice in options and enlightenment…but it comes at a price – pick the birthday cake with the green frosting or the blue frosting! They both look very appealing.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- (#1) The reason I posted George Kittle (8-54-0/10) as the ‘buy low’ of the week still stands.
Now, I’m not breaking any news that Kittle is ‘good’. I’m just making this observation, for those in TE need or wanting to upgrade (and I realize many of you have Engram-Waller or Kelce/Kittle-Waller, or Waller-Fant…and everything is kinda fine…but Waller can be a flex or part of the trade into Kittle, if desired)…
The observation is – Kittle is going to be the #1-2 fantasy TE with Kelce…and they will be so far from the rest of the pack that it drives their value higher economically speaking. Like argument for top 5 fantasy assets to possess depending upon scoring system. Having a Waller-Kittle combo allows you depth, flexing one of them, keeping them away from others/forcing them to use Vance McDonald, etc.
And if that is true, Kittle is selling under market price because people hold Kelce on a big pedestal…but Kittle is not seen on the same FF-level (yet)…he’s a notch below. But I’d argue Kittle is going to beat Kelce in fantasy this year. Which opens up a trade base of your Kelce for Kittle + nice ____ option if you want to go there.
Kittle is this offense. His line was 8-54-0, but shoulda been 11-80-2. He is the real deal…one of the 10 most valuable players in fantasy. If I were re-doing my ‘Holy Seven + 1’ list for 2019 redrafts going into this season…I’d kick the +1 (OBJ) out and place Kittle in there to make it officially the ‘Holy Eight’.
I’m all in on Kittle, as I’ve been back when he was my ‘take a 2nd TE, you won’t regret it’ move last year. Kittle was that guy last year, Engram the year prior (his rookie shock year), and Waller this year…while others took WRs they are cutting now because ‘you don’t take two TEs in redraft!!!’. You do if you know the talent properly. It’s not taking two TEs…it was targeting talent to be right where many of you are at with everyone wanting Waller now.
-- (#2) We are a lot closer to the Dare Ogunbowale (4-33-0/6) takeover than I realized/thought we might be.
Peyton Barber (8-33-0, 2-12-0/4) is terrible. Looks slower than ever.
Ronald Jones (13-75-0, 1-18-0/1) is a joke. He runs straight (I think with his eyes closed) and cowers/turns away from contact. He will be out of the league by 2021. If you hold him, and don’t trade him this week, you might get another ‘OK’ stat day(s)…but he’s going to fail soon. You are at peak Ronald Jones, right now.
If the Bucs lay an egg on TNF…to go to 0-2, and in an embarrassing fashion again – change will happen. The Bucs will have 10 days to change things up. Dare Ogunbowale will go from split, 3rd-down back only to 3-6 carries with good targets to 7-10 carries with good targets to THE GUY in short order. He’s far superior to Barber-Jones, on a team that has no soul, no life…Ogunbowale is Arians’ type of guy to bet on. It’s coming soon. Dare can exist as hopeful PPR guy while you wait.
When Dare takes over…he’s an RB2 in PPR. Still a bad team but Dare will catch a lot of junk passes from Winston. Useful flex-ish in PPR next week or two but growing in touches…and then split and then the guy. We need the Bucs to fail to make it happen…or this idea might get delayed a week or two. Hope the Bucs get stomped out tonight.
-- (#3) By Week 7-8 (or by the end of this week), the 49ers-DST will be the hot new thing everyone is chasing off waivers. The 49ers have the potential to be the next big thing defense in the NFL (from among the unclaimed DSTs in fantasy).
I know Jameis Winston (20-36 for 194 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is terrible. I said since he was a freshman at Florida State, but I’m not fully blaming him here. This was the 49ers defense. Nick Bosa (3 tackles, 1.0 sack, 3 QB hits) is a human monster playing defensive end…and oh by the way Dee Ford (1 tackles, 1.0 sack) is on the other end…and oh by the way DeForest Buckner (2 tackles, 1 TFL) is up the middle between them.
3.0 sacks, 3 picks, 2 pick-sixes, 6 TFLs, 6 QB hits, 3 forced fumbles, 1 recovered this game for the 49ers-DST. It’s easy to think the Bucs are just bad…and they are, but this was the opening act of a future monster defense.
The problem is…
They will get on everyone’s radar if they crush Cincy this week, which I think is imminent…but then they have PIT, BYE, CLE, LAR…not easy matchups for defense. Not as juicy, but this defense might have so much front pressure it works vs. PIT and gives Baker fits and holds down LAR. The schedule is not easy/a gift overall, but this defense might be the ‘it’ D regardless of matchup because of the front 4 and 7 and the secondary is not bad at all.
I want to see what they do against a more veteran hand QB like Andy Dalton, but if they smoke him…then everyone is onto this. This may be a tough decision week to jump in on them…because a reasonable play this week but then next week, Big Ben is turnover prone. Then that Week 4 BYE forces you to drop or carry two DSTs is another hurdle.
I know what you’re thinking…hold my Green Bay or go into SF? I know…you can’t fit everything in that I love! Go SF playing for just this week (watch my DST rankings change later today)…and then iffy but hopeful hosting PIT and then a BYE. Green Bay, I think is further along as a unit, more experienced and better D-C, but MIN-DEN-PHI-DAL for them the next 4 weeks is not bad but not juicy either.
*I typed all this midday THU, and then as I get all whipped up into a frenzy…I then see Nick Bosa in doubt for Week 2 (foot bothering him, questionable). He is THE KEY to all of this. Lose him, and this is just another good/emerging/promising upstart defense to use with a rocky schedule ahead. Bosa is a key to a Week 2, but especially a Week 3 play.
-- Whew. Now onto loess exciting stuff…
Dante Pettis (1-7-0/1) played two snaps and had one target/catch. I don’t know what the issue is but for 12-team/16-man roster type leagues or less…you can’t wait around to find out. Deeper leagues…don’t totally give up on Pettis yet. He is their best WR. He has ‘young OBJ’ mannerisms. If he gets straightened out, could be a bargain. Not imminent, but not totally doomed. He may be weeks away or just hosed all year…or traded midseason.
-- Mike Evans (2-28-0/5) was ‘sick’ coming into this game, which explains part of his issue. He was coming out of the game looking ill a few times…about to get sick. I guess that’s some hope ahead…that it was just an illness-based underperformance. I fear Jameis, of course, but Evans has been fine with Jameis for years.
I’m worried Winston goes so bad they have to bench him, but that might help Evans.
-- Like I said…in the Evan Engram vs. O.J. Howard (4-32-0/5) debate preseason…you shy from OJH and go into EE. Both had reasons to fear them and love them, but I said Arians does not work well with TEs for fantasy/production.
Round One…goes to me. It was only like 20 points difference between them in Week 1 PPR, so…
If you lost by less than 20 and went OJH over EE…blame you not me.
-- Tevin Coleman is down for a while…so, then is Raheem Mostert (9-40-0, 0-0-0/1) worth anything? Not really. Not unless Breida gets hurt. Mostert will be the 5-8 carries, 2-4 targets per game backup. Not nothing, but not likely to overthrown Breida.
-- Jimmy Garoppolo (18-27 for 166 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) didn’t look good or bad this game…just ‘meh’. For fantasy, his ship may be sailing fully. I will say, the Bucs defense was not bad here to aid the issue. I saw some glimmer from TB…in the sense that they are not a disaster.
-- Nick Bosa (3 tackles, 1 sack, 3 QB hits) almost about had 3-4-5 sacks in this game. He’s almost unblockable. They will have to double him and that will launch Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner as well. Arguably the best front four in football and it’s not even close who your runner up choice is…better than the Bears or Rams or Cowboys or Vikings, etc.
-- Deebo Samuel (3-17-0) played the most snaps of any SF WR. He’s kinda sailing past radars after a ‘meh’ stat line and the 49ers pass game seems dull. Samuel is going to be the guy in lieu of Pettis having whatever issues. In PPR, he can be a steady WR/WR3/Flex ahead if Pettis is dead/dying or even if Pettis comes on.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Deebo Samuel
50 = Goodwin
26 = James
17 = Bourne
2 = Pettis
27 = Ogunbowale
25 = Barber
22 = Jones