2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 1 – Chargers 30, Colts 24
Two supposedly upstart defenses facing each other…didn’t look like that to me. Both teams converted 50% of their 3rd-down chances…nearly 60% combined. The QBs completed a high percentage of their passes and the RBs ran for well over 5.0+ yards per carry as a group.
People see these two teams as playoff bound…I don’t see it...yet. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries on top of all that. However, the LAC schedule is awesome again…10 wins should be very attainable.
If Indy loses to Tennessee this week…they fall to 0-2 behind the then 2-0 Titans and the season may be over before it begins. The AFC North might be over before it begins…with three 0-2 teams and Tennessee at 2-0 after two weeks. It rarely works out so tidy/that easy!
*Note: Next Week 2 Projection update will be Saturday night ET, and then Sunday pre-kick.
Next Video Q&A: Sunday 11am-12:45pmET
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Chargers RB situation…
Austin Ekeler (12-58-1, 6-96-2/7) was clearly the coach’s favorite here. And no matter what happens with Justin Jackson, Ekeler is going to get his 30-40% workload in most games, at a minimum.
It looked like Ekeler is the greatest with that fantasy scoring, but note that his first TD shoulda have been Jackson’s (Rivers overthrew him in the end zone) and then Keenan Allen’s (failed jet sweep near goal line)…Ekeler came in and got the 1-yard score that he almost never had a chance to get.
His 2nd TD was a little screen where he got tackled but pulled out of it…a terrible tackle that so should’ve happened for a moderate gain – the tackle was so botched that the other defenders stopped to watch the obvious stop, but then when it failed they then couldn’t catch Ekeler after he sprung free.
His 3rd TD came in OT…which it was lucky to have an OT.
Ekeler is fine, but there was A LOT of luck here.
All the bad luck went to Justin Jackson (6-57-0, 1-4-0/3) who was a lot better here than you think. He lost that first TD because Rivers overthrew him in the end zone. He had a 15+ yard catch taken back on a penalty. He DID have two 20+ yard runs in the game when he was called upon.
I stick by that Jackson is the better runner/RB than Ekeler. But I am starting to run from my confidence he pulls into a true split and then takes over 60-70% share soon. I thought by Weeks 1-2-3, Jackson would be the man-ish. Not so sure after Ekeler has momentum and played triple the snaps here.
…oh, yeah…and Anthony Lynn always plays the wrong players when he has choices.
This week, the game might shift in Jackson’s direction. Things happen fast in NFL backfields.
-- The Devin Funchess gone winner?
You instantly think Parris Campbell (1-1-0/1, 1-7-0), and you may be correct. It would make some sense. He’s a talent like maybe none other from the 2019 group. A size-speed guy you just don’t see very often…imagine if Marquise Brown were really a 4.3 runner, a half-a-foot taller, and 40+ pounds thicker.
However, you know who is a great pure WR prospect? Deon Cain (2-35-0/2).
You know who has been there with Brissett for two years? Cain.
You know who started in this game? Cain.
You know who played more snaps than Campbell? Chester Rogers...25…then Zach Pascal 23…then Parris with 16…then Cain with just 11.
I don’t know what Indy is going to do with the WR rotation in Week 2, but I know this…once Indy goes Hilton-Parris-Cain, it will be the most explosive trio in football, possibly. However, for FF…the problem is slower-Tyrod Taylor is at QB. Not much action to spread around when most goes to TYH.
I love Parris and Cain…not sure I can love them for fantasy just yet. But boy do I want to. My guess is Cain emerges first and then Parris joins in soon after. I’m not sure they can be more than WR3s with Brissett. Cain especially hurt by it because he needs a pinpoint gunslinger with him. Campbell has the speed to take bubble screens to fantasy gold.
-- Are there any sleepers to emerge from the Hunter Henry or Mike Williams injuries?
Rivers will just go to Keenan Allen and Ekeler/Jackson more.
Ekeler can win with a bevy of screen/flare passes like old Danny Woodhead for Rivers.
Virgil Green may get an extra catch in a game…to go from 0-1, to 1-2 in a game.
Travis Benjamin becomes a DFS gamble for a lightning strike play in a game without Williams there.
-- Denzel Perryman got hurt again, so Kyzir White (9 tackles) stepped up and became the man in the middle. He’s a sleeper for 10+ tackles Week 2 without Perryman there.
Jatavis has had a twisted ankle issue and might be back into the mix this week as well.
-- Jacoby Brissett (21-27 for 190 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) did fine. He will be a 150-220 yards a game passer with 0-2 passing TDs per game and might run a little. If he has to carry the team, he’s in trouble.
His one redeeming value might be…once the Colts get to Hilton-Cain-Parris trio. It could lift Brissett from QB3-land to stronger QB area and a BYE week option.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Hilton
36 = Funchess
25 = Rodgers
23 = Pascal
18 = Campbell
11 = Cain
43 = Doyle
25 = Ebron
13 = Alie-Cox
48 = Ekeler
16 = Justin Jackson