2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 1 – Chiefs 40, Jags 26
Well, this was not a good start for my Jaguars ‘over’ win total bet. My main reason for the Jags love this year…Nick Foles…gone for half the year after half the 1st-half of Week 1. Great. This game was over after Foles went down as the Jaguars played one of the worst defensive performances/efforts of the week…part of that on KC’s offense, part of that on Jacksonville not really interested…just like they showed in the preseason.
Doug Marrone just moved to #1 on the ‘coach most likely to be fired midseason’ list. There is a path to a 4-4 start given their schedule, to buy time for Foles to return…but it’s not going to be easy if the defense is ‘done’. Houston and Jacksonville play for their lives, to some degree, this week.
The Jags have a favorable schedule, they just need to hold it together from here until Foles gets back.
Kansas City has fire power, but note they played a game against a team who wasn’t into it on defense and just kinda steamrolled over then, but they never fully put away Jacksonville – a backup, rookie QB came in and was giving them some problems. The KC defense is not great and that’s going to mean extra goodness for the offense for fantasy a lot this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Tyreek Hill (1-5-0, 2-16-0/2) is out for 3-4 weeks, at least. Hopefully, returns sooner-rather-than-later. It’s a blow for all us fantasy owners.
I drafted a lot of Marquise Brown late as a flyer…and if you have him, you have a hopeful Tyreek temp replacement and then some. I’m not proclaiming Brown as the next NFL superstar. And I fear the Ravens pass game/Lamar Jackson when they play a real team. BUT they don’t play a real defense for several weeks.
Miami was a joke Week 1, and Arizona and KC the next two weeks may be as bad on pass defense. I’ve talked about Hollywood Brown as a great sell high this week – I mean sell SUPER high or hold. Brown might be the #1 WR in fantasy after three weeks. Brown saves your Tyreek issue, potentially. ESPN issued a report saying people should fear going in on Brown because of the snap counts from Week 1…that means you likely cannot trade him as a hot of the moment WR1-ish value now, cold water has been thrown. But let’s assume the Ravens play him a few more snaps in the games to come? Why wear him out in that joke of a game Week 1?
The next alternative…the guy who could pop like Marquise Brown…is Mecole Hardman. I think Hardman has the same skill sets if not overall better than Brown. He’s as fast/faster for sure, but now he gets in the prime position of major playing time while Tyreek is out. Any speed WR working with Mahomes = money. Hardman doesn’t have to be a Pro Bowl WR…he just has to be with Mahomes.
Sammy Watkins (9-198-3/11) also looks reborn, and is the veteran of the group of WRs left for Mahomes, so he will shine while Tyreek is out. I’d lean riding Watkins for the next week or two just to jack his value sky high and then look to see if you want. When Tyreek comes back, Watkins falls back to earth some…but this offense is so good it’s not a far fall.
-- My first reaction to Gardner Minshew (22-25 for 275 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) was “Nice! I knew he was capable.” I’m a fan. I think he’s more ready than most rookie QBs because of the style offense he came from, been trained in, succeeded in at Washington State for a season. I thought Minshew game managed as KC drubbed the Jags…that was my reaction Sunday.
Re-watching this today…hold the phone a bit. Minshew was actually really pretty good. He was finding receivers and throwing the ball successfully downfield…not just dinking and dunking. The KC pass defense was bad, but Minshew accounted himself quite nicely.
You almost have to bet against him for any 1-QB league fantasy value in the Jags offense, but maybe we don’t have to discount the whole offense just yet.
-- With that said…I want to love my D.J. Chark (4-146-1/4) and Chris Conley (6-97-1/7) sleepers for 2019 more but I have to be careful as the rookie is taking on a lot of responsibility here…in a low volume passing game with a run game oriented head coach.
Conley looked nice with Minshew.
Chark, as I wrote about this offseason…he’s got #1 WR skills. He showed that he’s the future. I just don’t know if the future is consistently here yet.
Like I also said…Dede Westbrook was never the answer here for FF.
-- If Minshew isn’t bad, Leonard Fournette (13-66-0, 4-28-0/6) may not miss a beat. Note…Minshew was a part of a college offense where his RB (James Williams, who the Jags should sign RIGHT NOW) was like another WR. Minshew is very aware of checking down to the RB and using him as a pass game weapon.
-- I don’t know what the touch counts will be Week 2 or Week 3, all I’ll say is… LeSean McCoy (10-81-0, 1-12-0/1) looks EXPONENTIALLY better than Damien Williams and it cannot be long before McCoy is the lead.
LeSean looks reborn; turn back the clock like it’s the early 2010s.
If McCoy gets a 70-80% workload in this offense…he’ll be an RB1. You’re 1-2-3 weeks away from it…just hold your FF-team’s RB group together until then. Also, if you don’t have him – he’s a great investment piece for the future (like 1-3 weeks from now). People see him as ‘the backup’ kinda to DW…a split role. It won’t be that way for long.
-- The Jacksonville defense was as bad as I’ve ever seen it here. I know KC had a part in that, but they couldn’t cover and they didn’t want to tackle.
I bet an embarrassed Jags D comes out maniacal against Houston Week 2. We’ll see. If Houston stomps them…the Jags DST story is ‘over’ and this team is over.
-- Jags Rookie ILB Quincy Williams (4 tackles) started but was hurt early on and missed a lot of snaps trying to come in and out. He only booked 66% of the snaps. That didn’t help the Jags defense much either.
-- There was a “Hey, Week 2 KC DST vs. OAK! What a great DST play!” on Monday morning in fantasy articles. Well, there’s a problem with that…
1) Oakland looked solid Week 1 MNF in handling Denver.
2) The KC defense was a borderline joke here too. Not sure I’d want to bet anything on them against a solid offense.
-- For the record, Patrick Mahomes (25-33 for 378 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) rules the fantasy world. The gold standard. Best in class. I thought this game would be a bit of a downer…it wasn’t even close.
Everyone laughs at taking QBs highly in fantasy. You wish you pulled the trigger on Mahomes early now. Those that did, you got an ace fantasy player. And if Denver’s defense is that bad as we saw MNF – Mahomes will surpass his totals from last year for sure. No reason to fear the two matchups with them this season.
The best fantasy asset to own in all the game. RBs come and go. Mahomes is priceless.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Westbrook
44 = Conley
41 = Chark
12 = Cole
11 = Lee
45 = Dam Williams
20 = McCoy
02 = Darwin Thompson
58 = Thornhill (100%)
12 = Daniel Sorenson
65 = Watkins
53 = Hardman
43 = Demarcus Robinson
12 = Tyreek