2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 1 – Eagles 32, Redskins 27
Such a bizarre game…
The Redskins go up 16-0, 20-7 at the half…kinda luckily, bombs away type work…and then the Eagles do the same, not as lucky but a bit fortuitous…as they roar back to a 32-20 lead and the cover (PHI -10)…and then Washington scores late to backdoor the cover for themselves.
I didn’t think either team looked very good or menacing. If I didn’t know the history or rosters or projections of these teams, I would say they were two 8-8 type teams going at it.
I kinda love the Falcons at home this week over this Philly team (PHI being a road favorite) and I am wondering if Washington +pts at home is the way to go vs. Dallas.
We do have a breakthrough fantasy player this game, and that’s where we will start.
*Note: Next Week 2 Projection update will be Saturday night ET, and then Sunday pre-kick.
Next Video Q&A: Sunday 11am-12:45pmET
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, if you subscribed to College Football Metrics…you knew that we thought Cole Holcomb (9 tackles, 2 TFLs) was right there for the top ranked ILB prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft…with the two Devin’s. I’ve seen their pro work from the preseason to Week 1…and now, I have no doubt Holcomb is the best of the three.
Holcomb was unbelievable in this game. He made Miles Sanders look sick. Miles Sanders as a 2nd-round pick, and Holcomb in the 5th-round? I want to spit on the NFL for doing that to the young man (Holcomb).
Holcomb is so fast, so agile…and so smart, so sound…he’s a coach’s favorite already, he started this game to people’s surprise and almost played wire-to-wire but was nicked up late and missed a few snaps. It appears he is OK/fine. He re-entered the game late.
If he starts every game this year…he’ll lead the league in tackles, or be close – with the bonus of a big number of TFLs and he’ll get sacks and PDs. He’s stunning. One of the most graceful, quick-footed ILB prospects I’ve ever studied if not the most graceful. He could go from a nobody to top IDP linebacker for 2019 in a blink.
Get in on that…minor fear he doesn’t start Week 2 because that’s how things tend to work on players without big draft stock. But I think he’s starting from here on in. Gruden loves him, and his work in this game was excellent at times.
-- I thought rookie Terry McLaurin (5-125-1/7) looked very solid in his debut. He’s fast like Mecole Hardman and Marquise Brown and Parris Campbell and…and…basically a lot of the rookie WRs hitting the NFL are better/faster than most of the existing guys. The QB talent is rising, as are the rookie WR talents influxing.
These guys have played 7-on-7 passing league-type ball since they were 5-6-7 years old. When I played youth football, a million years ago, we had one pass play in our repertoire…and used once per game, maybe. Diontae Johnson probably handled more passes in his years at Toledo (game and practice) than Lynn Swann did in his entire lifetime. Just different times and mindsets.
I like McLaurin just fine…I don’t like Case Keenum. Gimme the speed guys with Mahomes, Baker, Brady, Ben before the ones with Keenum, Lamar, Darnold, etc.
-- Derrius Guice (10-18-0, 3-20-0/3) looked better to me this game than his last preseason game. He’s not great, but he’s OK. But now he’s gone for 4-8 weeks, so that’s that. I had no stock in him, so…
But I did have a little Chris Thompson (3-10-0, 7-68-0/10) stock and I’m glad I did now. I love when Gruden doesn’t trust his offense…he goes to Thompson like a WR, like his main weapon. In PPR, I’ve pushed Thompson as a virtual RB1-1.5 for a few years when you get in this type of FF-jam -- while everyone is fighting over Kerryon, Aaron, Sanders…dull RB types who are limited in the passing game, a guy like Thompson can get 6-10 catches for 50+ yards and TD hopes and be right there with RB2 group, high end, near RB1 work in PPR the past few years for stretches…and he’s always FF-disrespected, so he’s either on your waivers or available as a throw in for a deal.
The stage is set for Thompson to be Washington’s #1 guy right now. AP will get the carries…Thompson will be the PPR homerun. CT led all Redskins with 10 targets in this game…he also led all the Eagles as well.
-- Speaking of weak RBs…Miles Sanders (11-25-0, 1-2-0/2) debuted to a yawn. I thought he’d be stuck in a bad (for FF) RBBC and that’s what’s happened here.
Sanders is not terrible. He’s just average in a committed RBBC. David Montgomery has better hopes of breaking out of his RBBC than Sanders.
Sanders started this game, so you know where Philly’s mind is at…kick Jordan Howard (6-44-0, 2-11-0/3) to the curb for FF. He’s just part of the trio…the least important to the coaches. He may end up being the guy if Sanders falters and Howard thrives, but as a plan today…Howard is the 3rd guy but getting a good share as a #3.
Darren Sproles (9-47-0, 3-16-0/3) is the Eagles Chris Thompson, kinda sorta. The one the coach loves most. He could be a useful PPR RB3/flex for those in crisis. Maybe shooting to RB2.5.
The FFM Lineup Optimizer for DFS (Daily Leagues) is now available. See home page for more info on this tool – our 2nd-year partnered with Advanced Sports Logic (ASL) and at a lower entry price this season to allow you to test run to see how you like it. My projections + ASL’s programming to find the best spend of your DFS budget in a variety of ways! Ask me questions on it, if you desire. – R.C.
-- DeSean Jackson (8-154-2/9) does this to us…this type of game…on our bench…then we rush him into the lineup the next week for 3-37-0/5. Play/start DJax if you want…it might work out but he’s a random event with one of the events being ‘mildly hurt and leaves the game early and is out for a week or two’.
I didn’t see anything any different about DJax or special with a connection with Wentz. DJax got open and Wentz hit him for a couple of bombs. Next week, teams will double him and Alshon or Ertz will have a bigger game.
-- Two notes on Vernon Davis (4-59-1/7) filling in for Jordan Reed…
1) His 48-yard TD was maybe the luckiest of Week 1. Should’ve been a 10-yard completion and that’s it.
2) Jordan Reed should be back, and he’ll be a key option for Keenum.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Sanders
22 = Sproles
17 = Jo Howard
41 = Chr Thompson
23 = Guice
13 = Kelv Harmon
05 = Stv Sims
05 = JJ Arcega-Whiteside
51 = Sweat
50 = Holcomb