2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 10 – Browns 19, Bills 16
Pretty much every week you could write a positive or negative story about every team after every game…you could just choose which way you wanted to see it. Like with politics…
Chiefs lose this week – what’s wrong with the Chiefs? They can’t win a title with that defense! Had they just not snapped a ball wrong on a field goal attempt with 1+ minutes left, they probably would have won the game…and then the narrative is – Mahomes is back, and Chiefs primed for a title run!
Really, a bad snap late determined the entirety of the Chiefs future?
Dallas loses to Minnesota – Minnesota primed for a deep playoff run with a statement win! I was like…didn’t we all just write them off a week ago when they lost to Matt Moore the week prior? Dallas cannot win the big one, they may not even make the playoffs!! Really, when they beat Philly two weeks ago it was a signature win and they were going to cruise to the NFC East title.
From this game, you take your pick…
The negative = Cleveland really struggled in the red zone again, and the Bills missed a 50+ yard FG by a yard with time expiring or this was going to OT. They got a lucky win and the red zone issues continue.
The positive = Cleveland changed the playbook up a bit, and against a really good defense…they were driving down the field all game. They won by 3 points late with a gritty-gutty late game TD drive to win it…but the eyeball test – they should’ve won by 15+ points in a blowout. They were CLEARLY the better team here most snaps.
Honestly, I’m not sure what to believe about Cleveland’s performance or whether they have any capability to put two good games (or snaps) in a row back-to-back. Everything about Week 11’s matchup with Pittsburgh says the Steelers are better…except I never like much that I see from Pittsburgh every week, and when I see ‘good’ Cleveland appear…I get excited, and Baker v. Rudolph = Baker…right?
The most predictable thing about the Browns this year = they will let you down, so I’ll assume that Week 11 and hope to be proven wrong for Baker owners. If each team plays their best, the Browns will throttle the Steelers.
If the Browns beat the Steelers (on TNF at CLE), they host Miami the following week…and with a win over Miami -- the Browns could suddenly be 5-6 with 2 games against Cincy left…if they sweep the Bengals there’s 7 wins with an @ARI they can win to get to 8 wins…then they just need a win over BAL or @PIT to get to 9 wins. If that 9th win is against PITT…they could hold a 9-7 record playoff tiebreaker over PIT and BUF (if they both ended up 9-7). Week 11 is an important game for 5-4 PIT…but it’s the season for Cleveland.
I’d be shocked if the Browns start flying straight and win a bunch of games, so we project 8-8 to the finish…with everything relying on them beating the Steelers.
Beating Buffalo in a tight game is not a quality win, because Buffalo has no quality wins…they’re the Minnesota Golden Gophers of the 2019 NFL Season. Buffalo is a 6-3 team, that should be 4-5. They have a couple of gifts remaining (@MIA, NYJ…but @MIA is no real gift anymore). If Buffalo goes to Miami and wins this week, they have a good line to 9 wins and a playoff spot. They lose to upstart Miami, and the season may go off the rails to an 8-8 finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Baker Mayfield (26-38 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) stock report…
The Bills had allowed 5 passing TDs (6 INTs) all season…and then Baker drops 2 TDs on them and was throwing near the goal line on two separate occasions on drives that stalled/had drops for missed TDs. Baker nearly posted 3-4 passing TDs here. He looked good most of this game, except the times he forced it to OBJ…and even then, he was smart about forcing it, but he was forcing it.
First play of the game, bomb to OBJ…and Odell sprinted open by a yard, but Baker overthrew him by a yard. So close to an 80-yard TD to start this game.
Baker has 4 TDs/1 INT and 65%+ Comp. Pct. the last three games…against the #2, #3, and #4 pass defenses in the NFL. He’s faced #1-2-3-4 pass defenses in games the past five games. Week 11 vs. the #12 pass defense of Pittsburgh seems like an easy matchup by comparison…
-- A big help to this offense…the way Freddie Kitchens used Kareem Hunt (4-30-0, 7-44-0/9).
Instead of using Hunt as a limited touch backup or 3rd-down back only…Hunt was used as a quasi WR a bunch, running real routes and making plays. Very smart. I assume they will stick with that ahead.
Nick Chubb’s (20-116-0, 2-5-0/4) touch counts are not at risk.
-- On the other side of the field…Devin Singletary (8-42-0, 3-8-0/7) worked as the clear lead here. It’s just the Bills couldn’t get drives going and were playing from behind a lot. Singletary looked great…just the Bills didn’t stick with the run game as much as they’d like.
There was no issue with Frank Gore (5-12-0, 1-4-0/1) stealing any spotlight here.
-- Tre’Davious White (6 tackles, 4 PDs) did a masterful job covering Odell Beckham (5-57-0/12). OBJ was no match for White. OBJ dropped 1-2 passes, had his hands on 1-2 more you’d love to see his supposed ‘great hands’ catch – but like this entire season, OBJ cannot catch basic passes in games, so he’s not likely to make contested catches at all. He’s too busy making one-handed catches in front of fans pregame while wearing headphones to concern himself with catching normal passes in real games. He makes me sick to watch him play.
With everyone knowing Baker was bound to throw to OBJ…Jarvis Landry (9-97-1/10) drew lesser attention, and Baker used it. A really nice game by Landry, maybe his best of the season. We’ll probably see a repeat again this week with the Steelers all over OBJ.
I thought Rashard Higgins (1-7-1-/1) would benefit from the OBJ-Landry attention, and being Baker’s good friend on the field…but just one target…but it was for the game winning score. Maybe they build upon this?
-- The Browns defense was solid here…held Buffalo to 16 points, but that’s what you’d expect. In the rain, against Josh Allen…the Browns got 1 sack, and no picks.
Two games with the Steelers in the next 3 games…and the Steelers are the least sacked team in the NFL. But Mason Rudolph looks terrible, so there’s that. There is hope for the Browns-DST the next 4-5 weeks but do much of their future is based upon winning Week 11 to breathe new life into the season.
-- Buffalo’s defense held the Browns to 19 points…but it could’ve been a lot worse. The Bills tend to bend and not break. It took some Baker magic to get from 12 to 19 points allowed in the final minutes of the game.
At Miami for Bills-DST this week seems good, but the Dolphins are playing so much better with Ryan Fitzpatrick…and Fitz pushed them around a bit just a few weeks ago.
MIA-DEN the next two weeks, and then you need to run from this DST. Dak-Lamar-Rudolph-Brady the next 4 weeks.
Snap Counts of on Interest:
67 = OBJ
65 = Landry
33 = Higgins
57 = Chubb
38 = Hunt
46 = Singletary
23 = Gore
40 = Knox
30 = Kroft