2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 10 – Packers 24, Panthers 16
Strange game. Dull game, kinda. Two teams that cannot stop the run…ran the ball at each other (CAR 5.2 ypc/120 yards rushing and GB 6.0 ypc/163 yards rushing) and the home team/Green Bay held on to win.
Carolina was down 24-10 when they scored a TD with 11:58 left in the game and decided to ‘go for two’ for reasons I do not understand, and they failed. Late in the game, the Panthers drove down to the Green Bay 25 for a 1st & 10 with 1:14 left, but four straight incompletions later…game over.
Green Bay is one of the hardest teams to figure out…their offense has looked pretty weak most of the season, but they have Aaron Rodgers so it’s never ‘too bad’ and always can generate activity as needed in most cases. The defense gives up a lot of action, but they play a smart-style of gambling and situational play to create sacks and turnovers at the right time and have halted many a late game drive with smart scheme and willpower (good D-C coaching). Green Bay figures ways to win.
With this win, the Packers are 8-2, a game ahead of Minnesota for the NFC North. GB has a BYE this week, and then a loss at SF likely, but then three wins (@NYG, WAS, CHI). They should be 11-3 heading to Minnesota to either (win) put away the division title or (loss) have the NFC North thrown into chaos for Week 17. Either way, the Packers are going to the playoffs. We see 12-4 and probably a division title, but worst case a wild card.
Carolina is starting to slowly swirl down the drain. The Kyle Allen effect…he’s nice, but you can’t hang with the Packers or Vikings or 49ers or Seahawks or Cowboys or Eagles with 90 telegraphed touches per game for Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Allen game managing his way through each week – that’s what you get with Norv Turner…look how safe and savvy our QB is!!! An 8-8 finish, possibly 7-9 is coming into view for Carolina…but 9-7 is possible – but 9-7 isn’t going to cut it in the NFC for a wild card. You need 10+ wins to dance in the NFC.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Speaking of players who are killing you in fantasy…Aaron Rodgers (17-29 for 233 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). It’s one of the unspoken things of 2019.
He got 6 TDs in that one game (v. OAK), on the bench for more than a few owners who were fed up by then…he’s had one monster game and then a fairly terrible FF season otherwise.
YTD, Rodgers is #10 in fantasy scoring PPG among QBs (4pts per pass TD) but ignore the 6 TD game and he would be outside the top 20 among QBs in fantasy scoring YTD.
You cannot use him this week (BYE) or next week (at SF), but NYG-WAS Weeks 13-14 look good, but it’s just not the same offense or same Aaron Rodgers as he has been. He’s been more killing owners than helping all season and it continues for at least the next two weeks.
-- We all remember Kyle Allen (28-43 for 307 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) starting Week 3 due to a Cam injury and getting 4 TDs/0 INTs against the great Arizona pass defense. Since then, 6 TDs/5 INTs his last six games. In five of those last 6 games…less than 235 yards passing each game.
-- Of Kyle Allen’s 6 TD passes the past 6 games…half of them are to Curtis Samuel (4-35-1/8). Samuel is scoring TDs, but he cannot generate the yardage because (a) Allen isn’t typically generating good yardage, and (b) Samuel is ‘the guy’ defenses are focusing on for coverage.
Samuel has been under 65 receiving yards in a game in six of his last 7 games played.
Catches in games with Allen: 5-3-3-4-4-3-4.
You’re getting 3-4 catches for 40-60 yards and praying for a TD every week with Samuel, which is not a bad prayer because he’s so good…but not super-valuable/exciting…just stable. Three of his next 6 games are in a dome, and the other 3 games at home in theoretically decent weather. He has the schedule for numbers ahead, but can Kyle Allen help? So far, not really.
-- So, the Panthers claimed/signed Mike Davis…what does this mean? A secret issue with McCaffrey? Are they going to finally reduce CMC’s workload?
My guess is they might reduce McCaffrey’s workload a little because they’re about to kill off the golden goose because Norv Turner doesn’t want to get fired, so he keeps playing the one note on the keyboard he knows (all plays to CMC).
They say they will reduce McCaffrey’s workload, but they won’t. They’ve talked about it for weeks/months/years and they don’t ever do it. I assume Mike Davis was claimed to help them feel good about saying it, and Davis will probably get 5-10 snaps to relieve CMC, but nothing major. It’s also a hedge if McCaffrey breaks down as it seems he is slowly starting to.
I would suspect if McCaffrey went down and out, it would be a Bonnafon-Davis split with Bonnafon as the one to want because he’s a rising talent, but likely an FF-confusing split to try to figure out in general.
You have CMC and I’ve been hounding you to hold Bonnafon for protection? Now, I don’t know what you should do. Now, it’s not so obvious. As long as Carolina has playoff hopes, it would be the veteran Davis working as lead, but with Bonnafon splitting. Once the season becomes ‘over’…it would be Bonnafon taking over more work, you’d think. I don’t think there’s a clear answer, so if you want to drop Bonnafon for other gambles in not-as-deep a roster leagues…you’re free to. Want to bank on Davis as the cuff? OK. Want to avoid it all for some other gamble? OK.
-- I cannot figure out the GB RB situation…
Snaps this game: 32 Jones, 32 Williams
Carries this game: 13 Jones, 13 Williams
Targets this game: 1 Williams, 0 Jones
TD this game: 3 Jones, 0 Williams
All I know is…Green Bay wants Williams involved in a lot of key spots, but Jones tends to walk away with the TDs.
*NEXT Week 11 Projections update…Saturday evening ET*
-- Allen Lazard (3-27-0/6) AGAIN led all non-Davante options in targets, by a distance. He looked good again…like the real Rodgers’ preferred #2 option after Davante. Everything is working according to plan…
The problem is…this offense is not generating much passing numbers, so Adams sucks up the majority and Lazard is stuck with crumbs for WR3-4 work. The #2 WR for Rodgers…doesn’t mean what it used to.
-- The Panthers-DST has one good/great use ahead: Week 13 hosting Washington/Haskins. Other than that, you won’t use them at all rest of the season.
-- The Packers-DST…no good BYE-SF ahead, but Weeks 13-15 at NYG, WAS, CHI – that’s useful.
Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Jones
32 = Williams
50 = Davante
40 = Allison
30 = Lazard
21 = Kumerow
11 = MVS
72 = McCaffrey
00 = Bonnafon (16 snaps on special teams)