2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 10 – Ravens 49, Bengals 13
Several top teams with top coaches came off a BYE in Week 10 to play an inferior opponent this week and were Vegas favorites…and they all got their heads lopped off by the underdog. An extra week off did no favors and didn’t help with the coaches having some awesome game plan dreamt up. Yet, two weeks ago, the Ravens came off a BYE in Week 9 and destroyed the Patriots. And in a spot this week, where we would have all understood Baltimore might have a letdown off that win – they murdered the Bengals from the opening snap and probably could have scored 100+ points if they wanted to.
The Ravens are beyond the best team in football right now. I don’t think there is a close second. The most befuddling (to defenses) and unique QB in the league with a solid O-Line, a solid/improving defense, and the best kicker in the game. They have the least flaws of any NFL team…so these monster wins/point differentials – they are not flukes. They’re a sign.
Baltimore is not perfect, but they’re superior to all other teams. San Francisco is in the hunt, and you never count out New England. But Baltimore is on their way to a Super Bowl title from what I see…and then football will be changed when the ‘Me Too’ movement of teams looking for their Lamar Jackson begins this offseason.
Week 13 SF at BAL should be something.
We project the Ravens finishing with 12-13 wins and probably the #1 seed in the AFC…and one other key attribute – they have no fear at all of the Patriots.
The Bengals have the opposite issue…their challenge is – will they win a game? They do host the Jets Week 13 for that hope. My guess is Cincy wins a game before end of year but still finishes with the #1 pick overall. Congrats on the great college season, Joe Burrow…you get to play for Cincinnati as a reward! Go ask Andy Dalton how great that was…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (15-17 for 223 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 7-65-1) was so unbelievable in this game…it was breathtaking. I think Deshaun Watson is ‘good’, but the real Michael Jordan of the NFL is Lamar Jackson. He does things never seen before. He’s a better runner and shockingly…a better passer than Deshaun, in my book, as well. Not in the traditional passer sense but within his style of offense he is now throwing passes on the money against flatfooted defenses that don’t know whether to play the QB run or let him throw right by them.
Jackson put on a show in this game…not only the highlight reel run for a TD, but his passing accuracy/touch/playmaking was excellent. He is now, arguably, the most valuable player in fantasy…him and Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes in 6pts pass TD leagues…and with no one else close. We can debate that all offseason.
-- My main focus of this rewatch was seeing how Ryan Finley (16-30 for 167 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-22-0) did in his debut. I am not comfortable giving a definitive answer after watching this game again…it’s hard to evaluate a QB when his team is down 14-0 and 28-3 in the blink of an eye. When the other team is putting in backups all 2nd-half and running vanilla schemes…how can you evaluate Finley properly? This game was over a few minutes after it started.
What I saw, random notes…
-The moment was not too big for Finley. He looked comfortable enough, but under duress a lot due to his O-Line. Still, he maneuvered around pressure just fine in most cases.
-Finley was hard-pressed to make plays because he was under pressure or didn’t have anyone to throw to/open.
-Many Finley completions were ‘hope it gets there’ throws…smart throws but guys not really open that much. Finley flirted with danger a few times.
-I did not see any receiver he had a special connection with. It just seemed like Finley was just trying to survive this game. When someone was open, he usually found it…but a lot of zone and vanilla coverages too.
-Finley didn’t throw egregiously into any double coverages, and he wasn’t afraid to throw to tight windows over the middle.
Better than Dwayne Haskins or Sam Darnold…on a level with Daniel Jones, a bit better a passer in my book than Jones – a future career backup, a solid one.
-- Joe Mixon (30-114-0, 2-37-0/3) got 30 carries and 100+ yards rushing, so that’s promising…but it was almost not real. Hard to explain, but it was more this game was out of hand and they were just trying to get it over with and Mixon running 1st-2nd-quarter was a way to try to slow this onslaught down (FYI, it didn’t work). He had 20+ carries in the 1st-half!
I don’t know that anyone should expect this going forward.
-- A lot of Mark Ingram (9-34-1, 0-0-0/0) offers for your David Johnson panic in PPR…and you’re wondering if you should do it.
Have you wondered why the people with Ingram are so ready to let him go, and are willing to take your panic player? The typical Ingram game has been 40-50 yards rushing, 2 catches for 10-20 yards, and a TD every other game. Not great for PPR.
Since Week 4, Ingram’s PPR points in games (starting with Wk4, and rounding): 8-13-15-6-17-9 (11.3 PPR PPG). David Johnson catches 4-5 passes for 40-50 yards and he’s almost there without factoring in TDs.
Ingram is not the great land of opportunity you think…in PPR.
-- I do like Marquise Brown (4-80-1/4) as a ‘buy low’. Who doesn’t want the #1 WR look for a QB who is on fire? Brown put up his numbers on 4 targets/40% of the snaps…but he didn’t have to play much because this game was over quickly, and Brown has been nicked up/still recovering. Smart management of him.
The schedule ahead needs (will want) Brown to play 70% of the snaps, lead the team in targets…and good things can happen. He may be matchup proof because defenses focus so much on Lamar running.
-- I’m impressed with the improvements with the Ravens-DST but how can I love them the next three weeks with HOU, @LAR, SF? The Rams game might be OK. If you are solid withy pushing them vs. LAR, then SF may not be horrible either…and then you get @BUF-NYJ-@CLE at the perfect FF time (Wks 14-16).
If you can hold onto them through the Texans Week 11 matchup, on your bench, then you might be solid ahead, especially in the FF-playoffs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Boyle
27 = Hurst
24 = Andrews
22 = Snead
21 = Boykin
19 = Brown
18 = Roberts
23 = Ingram
12 = J Hill
11 = Edwards
75 = Tate
66 = Boyd
38 = St Morgan
38 = Erickson (hurt back)