2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 10 – Seahawks 27, 49ers 24
My live watch reaction – the Seahawks were playing hard, hanging in there, and the 49ers gave them some breaks and let them hang around and beat them.
My re-watch reaction – Seattle physically took it too the 49ers, and eventually the 49ers buckled in the heavyweight fight and Seattle won because with everything else close/even – Russell Wilson is the best on-field QB in the NFL, and Jimmy Garoppolo is not.
I have not seen this version of the Seattle Seahawks at all this season…the physically imposing on defense version to mix with their stable offense/great QB on offense. The 49ers have a tough defense as well, probably the most imposing in the NFL…but they had a flaw exposed here by Seattle – they are not tough on offense. They are delicate and finesse and could be an issue for them to get to the Super Bowl…they buckled to the Seattle physicality. Seattle did not buckle to the 49ers defense.
This Seattle team from Monday night…that’s the NFC Super Bowl representative. My concern would be…I don’t know that it wasn’t just a one-time, fired up for a big TV game event…or if this is the new Seahawks on defense. Jadeveon Clowney has been asleep all season, per usual, and then wakes up for a national TV game. The good news is they have two more national TV games ahead.
Either team could’ve won this game, obviously…a 27-24 OT game, but judging it on the scouting/art side of things, the judge’s scorecard – Seattle impressed me more here and San Fran gave me doubts about how great they really are. The 49ers and Patriots are potentially nowhere near as good as we think they are…and that Baltimore and Seattle are the best teams in the NFL at full strength now, but not so good they can’t be beaten in the 1st-round of the playoffs either.
I just cannot get behind Seattle full throttle yet. Seattle is 8-2 and really could be 5-5…two OT wins the last two weeks, outplayed by Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincy this season. Russell Wilson is magic, but they have been very beatable…they just seem to always avoid defeat. Side note – consider Cleveland has outplayed Baltimore (W) and Seattle (L) in games against them this season. We project Seattle for 11-12 wins. Not an easy schedule the rest of the way.
Can San Francisco get to 13 wins and take the NFC West? We project 12-win SF team will go to Seattle Week 17 to play 11-win Seattle for the division title. How great will that game be if that’s the case?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not sure how I feel about Jimmy Garoppolo (24-46 for 248 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) going forward in fantasy. I know he has talent, but he looks like he’s playing scared too much. I almost get the sense he’s gone from hungry, young small-school guy to now a little full of himself, highly-paid, California-cool guy who doesn’t want to get hit – and will throw the ball anywhere to avoid a hit.
Seattle was bringing the pressure they likes of which SF has not seen this season, and JG had happy feet all game. One official interception but 3-4 near-miss picks. After Week 11, a lot of high-pressure fronts coming at Jimmy G.
Garoppolo has had two nice FF games this season, in 9 starts…not good. The two games coming against Cincy and Arizona. He has 7 TDs/2 INTs against CIN-ARI and 7 TDs/6 INTs in his other 7 games. Week 11 against ARI should be money, but JG has not been FF money that often.
25 TDs/15 INTs his last 16 NFL games played. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game once in his past 14 games played…against Arizona, his Week 11 opponent.
-- What scares me a bit for Garoppolo usage Week 11, in that great matchup, his ace receiver is likely out (Kittle) and then his new BFF WR is potentially out (Sanders) and his run game leader is out (Breida), and he just lost Joe Staley again.
He could be coming at Arizona with Deebo-Bourne-Pettis and Dwelley. Are you afraid of that?
-- On the SF injury front…
I am being whispered to that the George Kittle injury might be out ‘til Week 13. In part, because they believe they can beat ARI and GB, at home, not at full strength. But Week 13-14 at BAL, at NO is a crucial stretch they need to get at least one win there. Ross Dwelley (3-24-0/7) as an emergency start v. ARI for FF this week is not crazy at all.
Thus, Breida might take two weeks off as well…but at least this one against Arizona.
Emmanuel Sanders (2-24-0/2) should be able to play through his rib injury, a la Julian Edelman having the same issue this season. However, they might take a rest week vs. Arizona with him as well.
Deebo Samuel (8-112-0/11) stepped up big with everyone else down. He would be a WR1-1.5 projection once/if Kittle-Sanders are both ruled out Week 11…and solid even if Sanders is in but Kittle out.
-- If Matt Breida (10-18-0, 2-7-0/2) is out, before you go crazy with Raheem Mostert (6-28-0, 1-7-0/1)…note that Mostert has only made hay in SF blowouts (CIN and CAR). If you think this ARI game could be close…that doesn’t necessarily mean Mostert gets as much work.
Jeff Wilson would be active and take some work too…especially the goal line.
-- Jacob Hollister (8-62-1/10) surprised me with a big game here. He wasn’t destroying the opposition…he was just available and not covered as much and made his catches. He’s becoming a TE1 option with Seattle because Russell is making things work+ for fantasy this year.
-- Russell is also working D.K. Metcalf (6-70-0/10) properly – bombs and bubbles. DKM had some key drops on shorter routes in this game, as he does…it’s just not his game. However, when they let DKM play to his strength – it’s working so well.
And if Russell can make Hollister and Metcalf…he should help push Josh Gordon (2-27-0/2) some. Motivated Josh Gordon is a good thing for FF, but he drifts in and out of consciousness too much to be relied upon. Likely, Gordon is a flyer WR3 and takes touches from Hollister-Metcalf ahead.
Tyler Lockett is supposed to be back after the BYE, but he had a pretty serious potential injury…that we think he avoided and should be OK. I would not assume 100% everything is fine with him Week 12. If you got Week 12 BYE issues and are counting on Lockett…just have a plan b in the back of your mind.
-- If Emmanuel Sanders is out, then Kendrick Bourne (4-42-1/8) is set up to have a sweet game against Arizona. Bourne was stepping up this game…but had two horrible drops, unlike him, one of them leading to a pick-six.
Dante Pettis (0-0-0/3) didn’t get great targets to work with, so I don’t know why Kyle Shanahan is calling him out again. He had nothing easy. The guy who failed them this game, really, was Bourne…and waste of space Marquise Goodwin (0-0-0/3).
Without Kittle-Sanders…this is a pretty weak group of receiver options to attack Arizona with.
-- You want to get excited about the Seattle defense after watching them be so aggressive on MNF, but this is the same defense that allowed 34 points to Tampa Bay the week prior.
The Seattle defense has allowed 28 or more points in a game in four of their last 8 games. They have held one team to under 20 points this season…that was Arizona, a team that was in the red zone often and couldn’t convert TDs per usual.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Coleman
24 = Breida
18 = Mostert
70 = Deebo
59 = Bourne
31 = Pettis
24 = Sanders
10 = Goodwin
71 = Metcalf
52 = Lockett
35 = Malik Turner
27 = Gordon
20 = D Moore