2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 10 – Vikings 28, Cowboys 24
Minnesota is a good, but flawed team…so is Dallas. They played a game on Sunday night…it was back and forth…Dallas had a chance to win late having driven down to the Vikings 11-yard line with 2nd & 2 and with 1:33 left in the game. They ran Ezekiel Elliott, which was smart to run down the clock and get a first down. The run was stuffed. They let the clock roll more and tried to run again on 3rd & 2, and Elliott got stuffed for -3 yards. Dallas had to pass on 4th & 5 for a 1st-down, which would’ve put them in great shape to win…but they couldn’t get anyone open as Minnesota pressured Dak to an incompletion. Smart defensive stand by Minnesota…and ultimately the win. Could’ve easily lost had Dallas got a 1st-down then TD with little time left. It was not bad play calling or attempts…it just got countered by the Vikings.
Minnesota wins, so now we get a week of commentary on how the Vikings are great…despite being analyzed into a panic last week when they lost to Matt Moore. Dallas was all fixed and great two weeks ago, according to analysts, but then they lose here and now everything must be questioned and everyone should be fired. It was one play away from Dallas being considered gritty/great and Mike Zimmer firmly on the hot seat and Kirk Cousins as a failure who cannot win big games. I’m so tired of the overreactions to everything this year. You’d think football analysis and emotion would’ve evolved by now but we’re collectively worse than ever with ‘what just happened is everything and nothing else means anything’.
It’s a very nice win for Minnesota…on the road, taking down a potential wild card team they’ll have a tiebreaker over on their resume. It also helps them keep close to 1st-place Green Bay. Minnesota could/should be a game behind GB or tied when they meet in Week 16 at Minnesota. We see Minnesota with a slightly tougher path to make Week 16 for all the marbles. We see the Vikings with 10-11 wins and likely a wild card. Week 13 at Seattle is going to be a major event for the Vikings and Seahawks for the playoffs.
This is a huge loss for Dallas…now Minny has the tiebreaker over them if it matters. Plus, Dallas lost to Green Bay…so the NFC North non-winner…they have the tiebreaker path over Dallas if the Cowboys do not win the NFC East. Week 16 Dallas at Philly is likely for the NFC East, which favors Philly. This loss is going to hurt on a number of levels for Dallas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m a big Dak Prescott (28-46 for 397 yards. 3 TDs/1 INT) fan but this big game is more an indictment of how bad the Vikings pass defense has become.
The Vikings pass-d has been roasted by Dak, Wentz, Stafford (9 TDs/2 INTs and 350+ yards per game on avg. allowed) in their last 5 games, and they held down Keenum/Haskins and Matt Moore in the other 2 games…and not so much on Moore.
Dak should be fine at DET Week 11, but then @NE, BUF, @CHI, LAR, @PHI is not that favorable after that.
*NOTE: Next projections update Saturday evening ET*
-- Kirk Cousins (23-32 for 220 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is on a roll against everybody…16 TDs/1 INT since Week 3. It’s also been some favorable pass defenses to face along the way. Dallas has a solid pass defense, and Kirk put up 220 yards passing and a couple short TDs that were almost both run TDs at the goal line. Zimmer wants to run it. But Cousins bailed out failed run attempts with a pair of short TD passes.
Cousins faces Denver in Week 11, and the Broncos have the #4 pass defense in the NFL…the best the Vikings will have faced so far this season.
-- I’ve been too focused on Amari to see how Randall Cobb (6-106-1/8) is perking up recently…6 catches in each of his last two games. Not a ton of output the first 9 games, but hot the last two weeks…perhaps he just needed more time working with Dak? Against Detroit…might be another 5+ catch game for Cobb.
-- Catches in games in his last 4 games for Michael Gallup (4-76-1/10)…4-3-2-4.
13 catches on 27 targets? 48.2% catch rate? Yikes.
Something is not totally right here…might be the effects of the minor knee surgery still at play.
-- Stefon Diggs’s (3-49-0/6) numbers the past two games with Adam Thielen out: 2.0 catches, 26.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
Diggs should be tithing to Thielen.
Not likely Thielen is back Week 11, and Diggs gets shutdown CB Chris Harris on top of all the other issues facing a tough Denver pass defense.
-- I’m a fan of the backup TEs on both sides in this game, but really when I rewatched this game…their work wasn’t as exciting as I thought.
Irv Smith (5-34-0/6) doesn’t look like a key target as much as a ‘random target’ when Diggs is being wiped out. Smith might work OK for FF, potentially, with Thielen out…4.5 rec., 33.5 yards per game the last two weeks for Irv. But I was hoping to see a little something more here in this game and I didn’t.
Blake Jarwin (3-35-0/4) should be playing 60%+ of the snaps for Dallas but isn’t close to that. He has two TDs his last 3 games and had 3 catches here…but almost all his targeting in this game came with less than a minute left when Dallas was trying to move up field quickly for a better hail mary shot.
-- Points allowed by the Vikings-DST in their last four games: 39-9-26-24…the nine-point game with Dwayne Haskins. Week 11 vs. DEN might be OK, but then BYE-Wilson-Stafford-Rivers-Rodgers. No, thanks. No real interest in Minnesota after this week.
-- Dallas-DST has some interest ahead, partly because they are a borderline very good unit. And mostly the schedule starting Week 13…BUF-@CHI-LAR. Those games plus @DET this week should be solid too. Dallas will be dropped many places next week for at NE…but they might be a pickup and stash for Weeks 13-14.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Witten
23 = Jarwin
59 = Rudolph
56 = Irv Smith
57 = Cook
14 = Mattison