2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Bills 37, Dolphins 20
I think we’re inching back to Miami as ‘that team’…the team that’s a lay-up for opponents to beat. The are changing around defensive personnel every week trying players out…smart for them to look at it in a lost season but leads to opportunity in the passing game for opponents. Miami cannot run the ball at all…they’re a joke because they keep insisting that Kalen Ballage is great…and he’s the worst, so teams can sit back on the pass and give half effort to stopping the run. Miami is more beatable, to me, than Cincinnati. BUT the Dolphins do play with energy/passion…and Ryan Fitzpatrick never gives up. You can’t take them lightly, but they shouldn’t beat anyone under normal conditions.
This game was out of hand quickly. 16-0 Bills early, 23-7 at the half. 37-20 final.
Miami has games with NYJ-NYG-CIN Weeks 14-16…but I suspect that’s when we’ll see Josh Rosen again for them to take a final look (‘wink-wink’) when we get there, so Miami will stay at 2 wins for the season if they change to Rosen ahead -- or get to 3-4 wins if they stick with Fitzpatrick. Miami REALLY needs to lose that Week 15 game to NYG and then to Cincy Week 16 to have a chance at the #1 pick/Joe Burrow.
Buffalo takes care of business to get to 7-3. What the Bills do from here is important…they are the lead wild card team right now, but they are the saddest/luckiest team in the NFL…they are benefitting from the same schedule the Patriots are. This is a 3-7 roster that’s 7-3. But the easy games are over. They will lose four games in a row Weeks 13-16 (@DAL, BAL, @PIT, @NE)…so, they will have 7 losses minimum, which means to get to 9 wins and have a chance at the wild card, they need to win this week over Denver and then Week 17 hosting the Jets. Very do-able. This week with Denver is their Super Bowl for making the playoffs…a lose-able game they have to win. In the end, I think 9-win Buffalo is tie-broken out of the playoffs to Oakland and/or the AFC South runner up.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How about this Miami backfield? My take right now…
1) Mark Walton, obviously done in the NFL. The door is now open for Miami to try new things.
2) Because Miami would rather not-win down the stretch, Kalen Ballage (9-9-1, 5-8-0/6) should stay as the lead guy.
3) Patrick Laird (1-7-0, 6-51-0/6) is the perfect satellite back, a Danny Woodhead to rack numbers in the dump-off passing game…as he gave a taste here. Just note – all this work was very last moment. No real plan where he is in on all 3rd-downs throughout the game, etc. Most all his touches are very late in deficit, which is a shame.
There is some PPR RB3-4 hope here that Laird keeps nudging into more work as Miami falls further and further.
4) De’Lance Turner is the X-factor. A perfect situation to take a look at a guy because ‘what does Miami have to lose?’ But if they had that same thinking…Kalen Ballage would’ve been cut by now. I’m just waiting for Turner to get a chance, and once he does…he could replace Ballage and be a useful FF-thing.
The only question is – will he get that chance? I think he will, but it might be in 2-3 weeks.
5) Myles Gaskin – they should just cut him and get it over with.
-- DeVante Parker (7-135-0/10) had a shockingly great FF output here…considering Tre’Davious White was on him. It wasn’t all what it seemed, though…
4th-down & 2, late in the game, Miami went for it and Parker went deep when he was played short and he snagged a wide open 45-yard catch. In the final few minutes, Parker added 3 more junk catches against a prevent. This game was going to be 3-4 catches for 60 yards for Parker and then no one cares, but some nice junk late.
There should be nice junk late in most games, but he’s the obvious guy for teams to cover otherwise and the easiest to shut down. You can’t trust him, but he’s something in a given week if you can cash in on junk time.
-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (32-43 for 323 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) smoked the Jets a few weeks ago with 3 TDs/0 INT…aside from that one game, Fitz has 5 TDs/8 INTs on the season. He’s really not been ‘Fitzmagic’ this year. Since he lost Preston Williams, in his last 2 games, 0 TD/1 INT total.
In his last 4 games, Fitz has been sacked 4-4-3-7 times.
The Browns should feast here Week 12.
-- If you count rushing and receiving TDs together, Josh Allen (21-33 for 255 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs, 7-56-1) has accounted for the following TD totals in games since Week 5: 2-2-2-2-2-4.
13 TDs/7 INTs as a passer this season…8 TDs/7 INTs in 8 games when you ignore Miami games. The schedule ahead is going to crush him.
-- Devin Singletary (15-75-0, 1-4-0/1) as a starter in three games…43 carries, 212 yards rushing – 4.93 yards per carry. He’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry on the season. He’s doing well…just not getting enough work still.
Singletary was fine here but did fumble twice and was pulled for a few snaps because of it…not ‘good’ fumbles either. He hadn’t fumbled all year but then looked like he had a wet bar of soap a few times this game. Other than that, he’s doing fine.
-- John Brown (9-137-2/140 has ‘Miami syndrome’ like Josh Allen. Brown has 4 TDs this season, 3 of them against Miami. Minus the Miami games, Brown is a WR2.5…and about to hit a rough schedule patch.
That’s what I like the sorry Browns’ WR duo this week vs. Miami…and why I like Baker.
-- Miami no-name IDPs…
CB Nik Needham (6 tackles, 2 PDs) is the for-sure starter on one side…and he’s playing like his life depends upon it. 7.0 tackles, 1.7 PDs per game the past 3 weeks.
CB Ken Crawley (4 tackles)…remember him? Was great for the Saints a few years ago. He played 89% of the snaps here trying to jump start his career again.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Ballage
16 = laird
07 = Gaskin
00 = De’Lance (special teams only)
52 = Singletary
19 = Gore