2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Chiefs 24, Chargers 17
I really wish ESPN would have mentioned that this game was in Mexico some more. I didn’t quite get the subtle hints a thousand times during the game last night. The mariachi music coming in and out of commercial breaks really helped set the mood… I felt like at any moment last night Joe Tessitore was going to knock at my front door and serve me a basket of tortilla chips and salsa. If Taco Charlton was playing in this game, I believe Booger McFarland’s head would have exploded.
Did you know this game was being played at a higher elevation? I wish they would have pointed that out a hundred less times. Good thing the Chargers practiced in the elevation all week and KC didn’t…it really hurt the Chiefs performance/chance to win. It really is true what they say about the ball in the higher elevation – Philip Rivers’ interceptions really do travel further than normal. Hmmm, I learn something every day.
It was quite a commercial for ‘Mexico’ all night for whatever reason you didn’t know Mexico existed…as Joe Tessitore raved about the beautiful stadium, the great people, and the great fans in Mexico -- like he was working on commission for the tourism bureau. He was effusively praising/pandering to all of Mexico while we were all watching in disbelief and disgust that our finely tuned athletic fantasy specimens were having their careers put at risk by playing on a field that looked like a sheet of freshly mashed guacamole. This was Mexico's finest hour of a field construction with a year to prepare? The best thing that could have happened last night was Tyreek leaving early with a hamstring rather than putting his future at real risk playing the whole game in that slop. The stadium was toxic last year, and we were all told it was fixed/upgraded this year…so, who approved the playing conditions this month? Were they fired after kickoff? If you think players shouldn’t holdout for more money/better contracts when they can – Exhibit A to their defense…being forced to play on this field to better reach international markets.
All that aside, let’s discuss the game itself…but I do want to touch on a guy I’m getting a lot of emails/questions on – Mitch Trubisky.
Look, if a guy is constantly looking terrible and not moving his team and turning the ball over and racking disappointing loss after loss – something has to change. I mean, the team had such a great season last year and were expected to be Super Bowl contenders this year but aren’t even going to make the playoffs? How can you stand by and tolerate this when you can see how bad his decision-making is week after week…constantly failing on national TV/solo night games! Don’t you owe it to the team and the fans to go with the experienced backup to see if they bring life to the team? Can’t we all agree he’s a failed QB and the organization needs to move on?
I will definitely get to your Mitchell Trubisky questions sometime this week.
Oh, that prior paragraph was about Philip Rivers. Did I confuse you on who I was speaking of? My bad.
This is a wonderful teaching moment – a lesson in how THEY shape coverage by their emotions and then affect all of us watching and destroy people/humans and their careers (usually QBs) in the process. It happens because they have absolutely no idea how to evaluate talent, they just hop on a narrative and ride it…and fit facts to match their pre-emotions/belief system.
Re-read that paragraph I wrote about the failing QB…it fits Rivers to a T, no? But where is the outrage? If Trubisky had this same game on MNF…he would be eviscerated. He was just benched for less egregious acts 24 hours prior. Rivers is literally throwing balls right to Chiefs defenders and the analysts are like ‘Rivers needs to make a better throw there’. Trubisky misses a WR by a foot in a tight window and every fan and analysts immediately goes into their canned stand-up routine on how terrible Trubisky is.
Philip Rivers has 7 interceptions his last two games and is lucky not to have 10+ of them…doing so in huge games on solo night TV games against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL…and lost both games.
Mitch Trubisky has thrown 7 interceptions over his last 13 games. But Trubisky is a cancer and Rivers is a Hall of Famer?
I’m not trying to defend Trubisky. I’m just trying to show how empty and reckless NFL analysis is…and we tend to imbibe it without question. The guy who is deemed the worst QB in the world (Trubisky) is better than Philip Rivers in every way. Better accuracy. Less turnovers. Doing it with less weapons to work with. Has a battered O-Line. And Trubisky has zero random hissy fits/temper tantrums/arms thrown up in the air per game compared to Rivers’s 413 per game average. I wish Rivers would throw his arms up in a rage at himself after another stupid interception.
Where is the Philip Rivers outrage calling for his head/starting job? How disappointing can the Chargers be every year before Rivers is questioned? Nope. You know what Rivers is described as by the media all through his excessive turnovers? A feisty competitor working with bad surroundings out of his control. Meanwhile, to THEM, Trubisky is a joke…”Knock-Knock? Who’s there? Trubisky. Trubisky, who? Trubisky is like Blake Bortles…blah-ha-hahahahahahahahahahaha!” So clever. Hey, national analyst morons – you all loved Blake Bortles coming into the NFL! You might not want to get that judgement mirror too close to your face or you’ll see the real problem.
The sad part is…the Chargers played their typical horrifically disappointing game and still had a thousand chances to win late…and couldn’t, again. The Philip Rivers turnover festival and the field conditions overlook the fact that the Chiefs are a pretty bad ‘good’ football team. They are not real Super Bowl contenders any more than any Green Bay team post their last Super Bowl win years+ ago. Always a tough out with their great QB, but the whole roster and game plan and coaching is poor…and all gets glossed over by the dazzling QB – the Packers of the last decade and the current Chiefs team.
I so hope the Chiefs lose to Oakland in Week 13. The Raiders deserve to win the AFC West and the Chiefs deserve to lose it. We should have 7-4 Oakland v. 7-4 KC facing off in Week 13…if the Chiefs lose that game, they go to New England the following week for what might be the final blow for their division title hopes…but only if they lose to Oakland Week 13. Beat Oakland, and the Chiefs walk to an AFC West title.
We project the Chiefs will win Week 13 and win the AFC West and finish with 9-10 wins.
The Chargers are now 4-7 and are technically still in the playoff picture, but they are done. We see 6-7 wins and another disappointment for LAC. Will they draft a real QB this year…or wait even longer for the fiery competitor to fail more? One person’s ‘fiery competitor’ is another man’s ‘annoying biggest baby in the NFL’.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Obviously, this game, for fantasy, was known for the latest FFM-heavy player to get hurt early in-game and put up a zero for fantasy – Tyreek Hill.
Let me just say, it’s remarkable how many zeros/near-zeros we’ve experienced between Tyreek and David Johnson this season, and then both with zeros this week…and we, by and large, had a majority of winning take place this week and are .500 or better in our records this season with these battered teams.
It’s one of the most exasperating, frustrating seasons…and, yet, we’re deep enough and week-to-week adept enough to overcome all these fireballs thrown at us. Me of 10+ years ago would have followed the ESPN crowd advice and I would have crumbled to a 2-9/3-8 record under these types of injury issues. Now, with my FFM studies…I feel like I can fight my way out of the most dire situations. Like, I always have hope and a MacGyver-like plan to have a shot to pull of upsets or absorb zeroes and still win and get to the playoffs.
You like playing ‘games’ – this season is the most complex, intense, counter-punching season I can recall…and, yet, here many of us are still alive, and some thriving. We just gotta get to the second season/the playoffs and then we got a shot at the prize despite all the hamstrings of 2019.
It’s not going to be easy to pull these things off without Tyreek Hill. He’s like McCaffrey-Lamar right now…a nuclear bomb deployed for FF-scoring. The problem is we’ve only gotten five games out of Hill…3 inactives…two nothing/leave early duds. It is what it is. I can fix/work with a player who is just out and I replace him for that week, but I can’t keep taking on zeroes in games…my luck will run out with this crap in the FF-playoffs.
The good news is…Tyreek is going on a BYE. There is hope he is back just fine for the all-important Oakland game Week 13.
Let’s not mention there’s a chance he rushes back too soon and 3 plays into the Week 13 game he clutches his hamstring and limps off the field. I feel like we all need to change our team photo to a player grabbing his hamstring.
I mentioned it in Monday’s ‘Top Fives’ from Week 11…Mecole Hardman (2-13-0/4) had some value as a stash/handcuff for Tyreek just in case. I was just hoping it was not RIGHT NOW necessary. If Tyreek is out Week 13+, Hardman is a big upside WR2 every time with Mahomes. KC is on a BYE, so maybe Hardman isn’t on as many priorities…as they all chase the wind with Jonathan Williams and Bo Scarborough…but there will be people dipping their toes in the water on Mecole on waivers this week besides the Tyreek owners. It’s not a free shot at Mecole in 10-12 team/15-17 man roster leagues like it would have been without the injury to Tyreek.
-- Sammy Watkins (2-26-0/3) is such garbage, in general, for FF…but it’s even worse when Tyreek isn’t playing. Two catches without Tyreek in this game? Way to step up. If Tyreek is out, Watkins is rarely the right answer. I’d rather go with low volume but hopes for a big play TD Hardman.
-- The Chiefs RB situation continues to be cursed…
Damien Williams (4-7-0, 1-6-0/1) fell prey to Salsa Field on Monday night and went out early with an injury. LeSean McCoy (7-29-1, 4-28-0/6) picked up some of the slack, that he otherwise might not see 2-3-4-5 touches in.
Darrel Williams (11-35-1, 2-8-0/3) seemed as/more relevant in Damien’s absence.
What will happen in Week 13? I assume it’s back to Damien as an RB2-3 lead and Darrel/LeSean as RB4s.
-- Anyone else get the feeling last night that Patrick Mahomes (19-32 for 182 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) doesn’t look the same…when Tyreek is not playing? Still looks great, but not…as great.
Mahomes has completed less than 60% of his passes in games in four of his last 5 full starts/finishes…over half of that happening pre-knee injury.
This was the second time this season Mahomes has rushed for 50+ in a game.
-- Interesting game plan by the great Philip Rivers (28-52 for 353 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs)…throw dump passes to Austin Ekeler (5-24-0, 8-108-0/12) and then fire closed-eye prayers to Mike Williams (2-76-0/5) and hope he makes a big catch. For 58+ minutes of this game…Williams had one catch.
Williams also extended his TD-less streak to ‘still…none for the entire 2019 season’.
-- The Chiefs defense is maligned but they are doing what they have to in order to win. Taking chances, blitzing the QB, trying to create turnovers in lieu of having a shutdown unit. Who even has a shutdown defense anymore? No team that I see…the 49ers have been manhandled by a rookie with no O-Line in two of their last 3 weeks. The Bears are dead. The Patriots have been exposed.
The Chiefs are smart to just try to force turnovers, give up chunk plays, because their offense is so efficient/scores so quickly normally.
Can you use the Chiefs-DST for fantasy?
You can if you’re looking for a boom or bust option. They are a top 5-10 in sacks and interceptions in the league defense but bottom half of the league in yards and points allowed.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Ekeler
42 = Gordon
56 = Watkins
52 = Hardman
39 = Demarcus Rob.
11 = Pringle
KC RBs? Their snap counts are always a statistical error mess. Unknown the real counts at this time.