2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Colts 33, Jaguars 13
The Jaguars jumped out quickly to a 7-0 lead with the returning Nick Foles, and I thought this Blazing Five bet on JAX was money in the bank! The Colts then scored the next 31 points and I felt like an idiot and was lighter in the wallet.
The Jaguars have quit…is all you can think at this point. Losing is one thing…getting humiliated in another huge game is quite troubling. The Colts are just a better run team/franchise. The Jaguars have to move on from Doug Marrone…remember when they were a quarter away, at New England, with Blake Bortles from winning the AFC title game and going to the Super Bowl? It feels like it was decades ago.
Jacksonville lost Foles for 10 games, then lost Jalen Ramsey for good and then it all slipped away as the season wore on. They have five winnable games ahead and if they can win the next 1-2 games…they can suddenly be a fringe playoff hopeful, but I can’t imagine they could win the next two in a row, much less the next five. If they upset Tennessee this week…they could go 8-8 this season – and be 8-7 going into Week 17 vs. Indy for the division if things break the right way. It’s just the Jags have no juice. We see a 7-9 finish right now…but boy do I need 8 wins to pay off some preseason bets.
Indianapolis could’ve been in a lot of trouble losing this game, down so many WRs and Brissett not 100%...but they muscled through and are now 6-5. They could’ve been in last place with a loss. They won, and now play Houston for control of the AFC South in Week 12.
If the Colts win this week, we see them winning 10 games and the division. Lose to Houston and they will fight for 9 wins and a wild card and having already lost to Oakland and Pittsburgh…so they’re in some trouble at 9 wins for the wild card this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Who will the Colts starting RB be in Week 12? Hell, if I know…
Frank Reich said exactly what I would expect: "That is kind of a week-to-week, play-by-play situation," Colts coach Frank Reich said about replacing Mack. "We'll miss Marlon, obviously. He is having a great year, but I feel very confident in all three of those guys."
I thought Jonathan Williams (13-116-0, 1-31-0/1) took over carries mostly AFTER Marlon Mack destroyed the Jags, and as the game was getting out of hand. Rewatching this…Williams was getting some carries early on and looking good, and then really handled work once Mack went down. Williams, for his part, ran with passion and aggression. Very impressed, but I’ve seen Jordan Wilkins run with passion and spirit a few times too…and then with more work he completely disappoints.
I suspect the Colts will go hot hand. You’d think it would be Wilkins-Hines, as that’s what it has been all season…with Williams trying to push his way in. However, Williams was strong here…and they need strong. Good luck then figuring who gets touches worth using for FF.
However, if I knew Jordan Wilkins was out…I’d want Jonathan Williams for a lead role Week 12 v. HOU. Probably 10-15 carries and 2-4 targets? Splitting some with Nyheim Himes (3-11-1, 3-24-0/4).
-- How did Nick Foles (33-47 for 296 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) look upon return? Not bad. 47 pass attempts…that’s a lot, but they were getting smoked -- so it kept up (passing) all game. I’ve seen Foles better and worse. He was OK enough here.
-- I do know this for sure after the rewatch…Foles LOVES D.J. Chark (8-104-2/15). I’m not sure he threw a pass to another WR for the first 2.5 quarters of this game. Chris Conley (6-58-0/8) was a ghost most of the game until the Colts put extra attention on Chark and the score was getting out of hand.
I walk away thinking Conley is not much of a sleeper play as I thought…but then I wonder if the opponents start doubling Chark that it forces Foles to smartly go Conley.
Conley is a sketchy WR3/flex hopeful Week 12.
The magic was Foles-Chark, not Foles-Conley or Dede or Keelan.
Also, note – this makes TWO Jags’ QBs that Chark is the top target for. So, note that Chark is a real WR1 threat for 2020 no matter who the QB is.
Chark is the #5 WR in PPR and nonPPR PPG this season. Not a bad Very Deep Sleeper call by us this summer…
-- Leonard Fournette (8-23-0, 7-34-0/7) didn’t see many carries, but, again, the game was out of hand. Marrone is already out apologizing and giving away game plans with public statements saying he should’ve run Fournette more this game…so, expect 20+ carries for Fournette this week.
-- Zach Pascal (2-17-0/6) has to be one of the biggest flameouts of 2019…an opportunity to show with Hilton-Campbell-Funchess out the past few weeks and he has been dreadful.
Marcus Johnson (4-38-01/4) is a capable enough WR, and if Hilton is out again…maybe Johnson has a hail mary shot at FF-value in the big Houston game this week…but low volume passing game + Johnson not really ever used heavy + big spotlight game = hard to trust for an FF-breakout.
He’s a name to consider for the desperate, if you think Pascal is a failure and Hilton is out and the Colts are going to have to throw…as Houston is down all kinds of DBs again.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Pascal
63 = Marcus Johnson
32 = Rogers
01 = Dulin
60 = Conley
59 = Chark
53 = Westbrook
25 = Cole
31 = Jon Williams
24 = Hines
21 = Mack
45 = Fournette
14 = Armstead
04 = Ozigbo (watch out for the new handcuff…?)