2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 11 – Patriots 17, Eagles 10
I kinda forgot this game was a 10-0 Eagles’ lead pretty quickly. Obviously, it was not good for them the rest of the way.
This game was a slog. Two dying offenses with unimpressive offensive weapons, including the two QBs. The Eagles had a pretty good excuse…they had their top RB and WR hurt/missing. The Patriots…this is what they are. The Patriots are ‘good’, and I mean that as an insult.
We all keep the Patriots on such a high pedestal that they 1,000% deserve from their recent past, and I’m sure they will find a way to win the Super Bowl…but this does not look like a great team to me. It was a major head fake earlier this season because we all knew ‘schedule’ was helping but still…we drink it with our eyes and see their crazy DST scoring and we get intoxicated with ‘good things’ happening on TV…regardless of how conscious we are of the schedule impact.
The Eagles are also ‘good’. I think they would’ve beaten NE with a healthy Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffrey and then not losing Lane Johnson in-game. The Patriots voodoo curses on opponents continue. This week, I’m sure something wicked will happen to the Dallas Cowboys. Like…what’s the worst thing that could happen to the Cowboys going into their Week 12 battle with the Pats? Oh…if it’s announced that Jason Garrett got a 5-year contract extension.
The Patriots are 9-1 and are on their way to 13-3, possibly 14-2 and likely the #2 seed in the AFC. The thing about not being the #1 seed…the #2 seed most likely faces the Chiefs 2nd-round. You’d like to not want to face the Chiefs if you don’t have to.
The Eagles fall to 5-5, but don’t worry…a gift of a schedule is coming to save them. Home with Seattle and then @MIA-NYG-@WAS. If they could somehow beat Seattle, with all their injury issues, they would likely be 9-5 heading to Week 16 showdown with Dallas for the NFC East control. We think they will be 8-6 headed into that game and find a way to win it (at PHI) and finish 10-6 which may or may not win the NFC East, but it won’t get them in the wild card most likely. The NFC North and West runner’s up are likely to be at 11+ wins, but Minnesota could be at 10 and have the tiebreaker over Philly, as well as a 10-win Seattle team having the edge over them if they beat Philly this week. A lot left to be determined and the DAL v PHI positioning and outlook changes every week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main thing I wanted to see from this game was N’Keal Harry’s (3-18-0/4) debut with heavier snaps and some targeting.
I’m a big Harry fan, as a talent, like we all were with him coming out of the NFL Draft…but it’s asking a lot for a rookie WR to suddenly integrate with Tom Brady after missing the last 11 weeks or so. I didn’t see any spark or flicker of something that made me go ‘wow, here it comes!’
Harry may start if Dorsett or Sanu are hurt, but I feel like Harry is a WR3-4 for the week in this very tired, sluggish offense. There’s hope because he is a talent, but nothing in this game showed me a wow. I saw little sparks with rookie WRs like Andy Isabella, Diontae Johnson, Parris Campbell…but here it doesn’t feel that exciting yet. For what that is worth.
-- I’m so done with Miles Sanders (11-38-0) as a lead RB in the NFL. He’s just not a lead RB. Nothing in-season has changed my opinion on him out of the NFL Draft – not a great tape or profile for a between the tackles, workhorse runner.
I thought the most telling thing here was, 2nd-series of the game for Philly – Boston Scott (7-26-0) was the starting RB and taking carries, and his first carry with the Eagles backed up to their own 3-yard line. That’s a lot of trust for a UDFA journeyman RB/lack of some trust in Sanders…in a HUGE game.
Why the Eagles do not get Scott screen passes and out in space, since he’s the fastest guy on the team? Welcome to NFL logic.
-- How bad have these two team’s QBs been for fantasy of late?
Since Week 5…
Tom Brady (26-47 for 216 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is the #18 QB in 4pts pass TD scoring per game.
Carson Wentz (20-40 for 214 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is #26
The schedule gets easier ahead for Philly, but this offense is showing no firepower at all.
After Brady plays Dallas this week, his pass game schedule gets much easier again…@HOU, KC, @CIN Weeks 13-15. Brady will be back as a top 10 FF QB in that stretch. Wentz should rise up with @MIA-NYG-@WAS, but we’ll see. It’s not schedule that is hurting these QBs…it’s their talents + the surrounding talent. Wentz has been ‘meh’ in good matchups of late.
-- Carson Wentz tried to hit Jordan Matthews (1-6-0/6) on several medium and deep routes but they could never connect. If no Alshon again this week – Matthews is a sleeper from the expected volume/need…and with better to work against SEA DBs than the NE DBs. And if Nelson Agholor is out – JMatt might be the team’s #1 for this week’s game!
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (1-29-0/1) might start, but I have no interest in him. Even Philly is showing a great lack of faith in him. I watched his first target of this game (no play/penalty), and I thought I mistakenly hit a Dallas Goedert play…JJAW looks and moves like a tight end, not a get-open-quick WR. He’s too slow to succeed in the NFL, I think…and have thought that since scouting him for the NFL Draft.
-- Sony Michel (10-33-0, 2-11-0/4) has died the last few weeks. Will he resurrect a little? I think so. Favorable matchups ahead and the Patriots seem committed to him being the main ballcarrier.
-- Would you rather have the Patriots or Eagles defense Weeks 13-15?
The Patriots face Dak this week, so not good…and then Deshaun and Mahomes. You cannot use the NE-DST with much faith of a big upside the next 3 weeks. And if that’s true…do you keep them just for Week 15 at CIN? I don’t think you have to.
I’d rather run with DET-ATL-CLE this week over NE v. DAL, and then Philly-DST Weeks 13-15 with Fitzpatrick, D.Jones, Haskins…it’s the greatest. And note – the Eagles defense is getting very good of late. Ever since they got their starting CBs back, they’ve held the last three opponents to 17 or fewer points in a game. I don’t want them for Week 12 v. Russell, but I think one of the smartest plays ahead is sitting on Philly-DST for Weeks 13-15…and we’ve been pointing that out for weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Sanders
14 = Boston Scott
00 = Ajayi
66 = Agholor
64 = J. Matthews
19 = JJAW
66 = Edelman
41 = Sanu
34 = Dorsett
32 = Harry
32 = J White
22 = Michel
21 = Rex